I hope I'm wrong. I don't believe one iota of what it means, social media, experts or the usual (self-styled) "military analysts" state or report, or rather that a Coup d'etat.
A premise. In the West during the last year and a half there have been many voices against the vulgate dictated by the official propaganda on the war in Ukraine. Well, many have been “muted”, if not censoredresolutely and with no regard for freedom of opinion, especially when coming from the military. Regrettable? Absolutely not: when you're at war, propaganda is a must.
So how is it possible that Prigozhin, Putin's faithful creature (president who grew up during the cold war at the KGB school), could for months and months have publicly challenged the Kremlin without consequences? Simply impossible! At best a stammering "accident" would have happened long ago, at worst a gunshot to the back of the head would have brought the dissident back to his senses. Do we all remember the treatment of former Russian spies or opponents abroad in recent decades?
Well, according to what we read, the excesses of the head of Wagner would have now led to direct clashes with the regular army, to the conquest of the city of Rostov (logistically key to the Ukrainian conflict) and even to a "march on Moscow".
Photos and videos would seem to confirm this representation of reality. Not the numbers! A few tens of thousands of men conquered half a district of Moscow, not the capital of Russia.
I repeat, I hope I'm wrong, but we could soon see a maneuver underway that will be reported in the history books, the fruit of the famous Russian "maskirovka" (deception): to make the adversary think that one no longer has the ability or the will to wage war, that whether a revolt or even a "civil war" is underway... just when an unprecedented attack is about to be launched!
In the last year there has been talk of calls to arms and training for hundreds of thousands of Russians, some sources speak of a number exceeding one million.
But how to get such a force to the Ukrainian border without triggering reactions?
A fake Coup d'etat could he justify certain counter-insurgency movements by letting his guard down?
After the so-called Ukrainian "counter-offensive" has now taken place without much success, aUnpublished Moscow's (and underestimated) military might could wipe out the contender.
Let's ask ourselves: in case it will stop in Ukraine? For the worst-case scenario - 17 months after the start of the conflict - we in Europe are not even vaguely prepared.
I hope, indeed I pray, that I am wrong!