Deterrence of gagging amateurs

(To Andrea Cucco)

If the regrouping and subsequent increase in the front of the NATO countries represented for Moscow the very bitter result of the invasion of Ukraine, time seems to be restoring fortune to its president.

Last week, Macron's statements caused a stir due to his suggestion of sending Western troops to Ukraine. The result was a clear and clear contrary position on the part of too many.

With this I am not stating that the surge in war that would be triggered automatically it would be desirable, I maintain that the doubt and certainty about the opponent's moves they are the basis of deterrence.

What are we talking about?

“Deterrence” is a strategy implemented to prevent an unwanted action by an adversary through the threat of consequences.

La logic underlying deterrence is based on the calculation of costs and benefits. If the price perceived exceeds the gain, the deterrence is effective.

There are two main forms:

  • Deterrence by denial (deterrence by denial) - aims to prevent the enemy from prevailing through defense and other preventive measures;
  • Deterrence by punishment (deterrence by punishment) - tries to turn the advantage that the enemy could gain into one certain disadvantage, through threats of strong or even disproportionate reprisals.

In addition to these, deterrence can take several other forms, but that is not the point.

Right now he must not take the form of statements less than unitary by the political mess we call Europe.

Seeing the French, German and Polish "leaders" speaking for themselves, separately, and in such a delicate period provided Russia with a nice gift to the dilemma of "how dare I?".

Seeing consequent distancing from the French president's autonomous hypothesis of sending soldiers to Ukraine provided Moscow with the certainty that such a "disproportionate" move (it would probably mean NATO entering the war) would not be followed by others. Who gave it to him??? In fact, a clumsy Macron and his other colleagues denied it decisively!

Today the discussions in Brussels will continue for the second day. They will give something else to Moscow or a compact "deterrent" front - and maybe unison (from Latin unisonus, "with a single sound") - will it lead to serious results?

Photo: European Union