The Caliphate project, which today appears to be something suddenly born from the ashes of an unmade Iraq and only to reaffirm the role of the Sunnis in the Islamic world, is instead something that has begun to appear on the world stage since the 2004.
We can read it in a document of the National Intelligence Council, the well-known body of the "intelligence community" (ie CIA, DEA, FBI, etc.), entitled "Mapping the Global Future" (Mapping the global future).
An undervalued danger that has allowed the creation of an organization that now has a modern staff capable of knowing how to make the most of the possibilities offered by global communication and that produces powerful information, often shocking, spread mainly through the Internet. Images "strong" with the aim of inducing fear in the adversary and at the same time extolling the most radical masses of the Islamic populations by receiving their consent. Images that seduce and at the same time induce in the crowd the perception of being invincible because it bears the word of Allah. Mass beheadings and massacres, proposed not only in the Middle East and Asia but also in Africa. The first positive response from Nigeria, where the Nigerian fundamentalists of Boko Haran immediately adapted by launching proclamations that reaffirm Sharia, accompanied by the announcement by their leader Abubakar Muhammad Shekau that they had incorporated into the Islamic Caliphate, Gwoza, a city in the north-east of the Nigeria. An involvement that could also extend to Indonesia and Sri Lanka to the advantage of the secessionist faction of the Tamil Tigers.
The Caliphate for radical Islam could therefore represent "the political unity" of Muslims, or the Umma (Community of believers). The Caliph is the "Commander of the believers", political successor more than spiritual of Muhammad in his function as head of the Umma and in this capacity representative pro tempore of Allah on earth.
The 29 June militants of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) have formalized their existence with a message on the Internet, informing about the "reconstitution of the caliphate" in the area they controlled in Iraq and Syria. The spokesman for the organization Abu Mohammad al-Adnani also announced to the world that the new leader is Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, called "Caliph Ibrahim".
The origins of ISIS are far back in time, although the internal quarrels with Al Qaeda for the assignment of leadership after the death of Bin Laden have perhaps facilitated its consolidation. They date back to the 2000 when Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, a Jordanian who had fought alongside Bin Laden against the Soviet invader of Afghanistan, decided to found something to oppose Al Qaeda. Zarqawi, in fact, in those days laid the foundations for the establishment of a true and exclusively Sunni Islamic Caliphate that would refer to the historical and ethical values of the history of Islam.
It is not hazardous, therefore, to define ISIS as an emancipation of Al Qaeda, created to create a sort of "Sunni army" ready to defend the territories inhabited by Muslims from a possible occupation of the West.
After 13 years from the attack on the Twin Towers, after the "Arab Spring" and despite the initiatives of Zarqawi, Islamic fundamentalism appears, in fact, still fragmented, referring to heterogeneous radical groups of difficult control, often fighting each other and bearers of a threat that is not easily predictable.
A terrorism difficult to counter compared to when the danger was attributable only to Al Qaeda, especially now that the approach to the ISIS of the various organizations, expression of Islamic radicalism and scattered throughout the world, is creeping. Different connotations and different the dislocation of these entities, so difficult to control by international intelligence.
The ISIS can be placed in a large area of the northern Iraqi that goes from Mosul to the outskirts of Aleppo in Syria, also extending south from Iraq from Rutba to the first houses of the Syrian city of Dayr az Zor.
In Syria, besides ISIS, there are other small radical groups that make terrorism the preferred form of struggle: the Al-Nusra Front, the partisans of the victory of the people of Greater Syria affiliated with Al Qaeda, the Tawhid Brigade, the main rebel group active in the northern province of Aleppo, the Islamist army financed by Saudi Arabia to counter Al Qaeda, which brings together 50 armed groups and thousands of fighters, The Ahrar al-Sham group, "Free Men of Greater Syria, armed group that gathers various minor formations of Islamist and Salafist ideological imprint, all extremist factions that have declared as their main purpose to create an Islamic State.
In North Africa and Maghreb there is the group "Al-Qaïda au Maghreb islamique" (AQMI), an extremist organization of Algerian origin born with the aim of overthrowing the Algerian government and constituting an Islamic State.
In Nigeria, the Islamist sect Boko Haram, active in the region since the 2002, has long been active, aiming to bring down the current Nigerian government to found an African Islamic state based on the Sharia.
In Somalia, the Islamic al-Shabab group is active, a word originating from the Arab "al-Shabāb", the Youth. Islamist insurrectional group, in fact a Somali al Qaeda cell considered by many Western governments as a real terrorist organization. One of the primary goals of the group is the establishment of the Sharia rule as the law of the Somali state. He is also present in other African countries, and was a protagonist in the 2013 attack in Nairobi at the Westgate shopping center which caused the death of 68 people.
In Egypt, the Sinai-based terrorist group Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis operates, which recently released a video on the beheading of four people on suspicion of belonging to the Mossad. Also known as Ansar Jerusalem, it is a jihadist Salafi group operating in the Gaza Strip and the Sinai Peninsula. Ansar Jerusalem employs mostly local Bedouins with the aim of "freeing our Ummah and Muslims from the slavery of oppressive apostate regimes, establishing justice, dignity and freedom for them, only in the service of Allah and through the proper implementation of Shariah ". A terrorist organization is considered by the US State Department and appears to be financed by the Muslim Brotherhood. At the moment it does not appear to be related to ISIS.
In Libya operates the group called Ansar al-Sharia, (Partisans of Islamic law), an Islamist militia that supports a strict implementation of Sharia law and was born during the Libyan civil war. The leader is such Emir Mohamed al-Zahawi who develops constant terrorist activity against Libyan and American civilians. In the 2012 he was the main architect of the elimination of US ambassador Christopher Stevens.
In Afghanistan and Pakistan, the Taliban who acquired power in the 1990 from always convinced Sharia supporters, still operate in the country despite the Western intervention of 2001, located in many areas of Afghanistan, in particular close to the Pakistani Tribal Areas.
Finally, Al Qaeda, which after its Afghan affairs regrouped in the Arabian Peninsula and Yemen. The group that acts under the acronym Aqap, is considered by the US as the most dangerous terrorist team in the world. Their purpose is to establish an Islamic caliphate by bringing down the current Yemeni government and the Saudi monarchy.
A situation of situation, therefore, very complex and varied where the ISIS could represent the natural ideological and radical coagulum, really dangerous and powerful if it completes the aggregation with what remains of the old nomenclature of Al Qaeda, which in these days it appears making an approach to the Caliphate. A union with the aim of carrying on a common and overwhelming struggle, with striking terrorist actions for which the consolidated expertise of the old organization of Bin Laden could be invaluable.
Decision that in truth has taken many analysts by surprise and that could hide other ends than that of a simple alliance. The summit of Al Qaeda, in fact, had disavowed the self proclamation of the Islamic Caliphate and denigrated the role of al Baghdadi with a proclamation of al Zawahiri who had expressed his disagreement from Afghanistan, saying "The Caliphate is not an evolution of the our movement and we do not recognize its legitimacy and objectives in Iraq ".
Now Al Qaeda instead invokes the unity of actions and intent, perhaps because it has realized that the Caliphate has reached a goal that has always escaped Bin Laden: to identify an extended territory to settle its permanent positions and give life to a form of true "statehood" with the active participation of all the radical groups of the Islamic world.
An alliance from which terrorism could be reinvigorated by producing actions far more striking than that of the September 11. Terrorist attacks also carried out with "dirty" devices (chemical, nuclear and biological), affecting institutional bodies and the top of other religions. All this in order to create far-reaching destabilizing conditions in a West which is in economic difficulty and therefore slow to react.
In this context, Al Qaeda could represent the "operational mind" and the ISIS guarantee two aspects of primary importance in the objectification of a terrorist strategy. Consistent economic resources (we are talking about 2 billions of dollars) far superior to those of old Al Qaeda, and the ability to involve in extreme action a massive number of foreign fighters - first or second generation immigrants or converted to Islam - also recruited through the effectiveness of the extreme message that manages to circulate in the media and on the network.
Moreover, the constitution of the Caliphate is taking on very specific geographical connotations and its leader Al-Baghdadi attributes to his family a belonging to one of the most radical Sunni factions and a direct descent from the Prophet. It also refers to the most rigorous interpretation of sharia, giving substance to its words with the unheard of violence against Christians, Shiites and Yazidis.
It is, however, unrealistic that the Caliphate will be able to exert its influence on the entire Islamic world. Surely, however, the proclamation of the Islamic State represents a deadly threat to what remains of Al Qaeda and all the other radical factions affiliated to it. This could speed up the process of alliances that if they succeeded would not only undermine the geopolitical balances of the Middle East, but would pose a new threat to international security.
Faced with these risks, it is absolutely urgent and imperative that the West immediately raises the alert level not only to hit ISIS and Al Qaeda, but also expands the "preventive war" actions against all the other organizations that could enter be part of the Caliphate.
In fact, any delay would favor aggregations on a large scale, increasing the level of the terrorist threat that could evolve by uniting the resources and experience of individual organizations, primarily Al Qaeda and its acolytes, and that would be accompanied and supported by resources. economic and idealistic aspects of the Caliphate.
It is therefore necessary to hurry up, in particular with the full involvement of a disarmed Europe bordering the main areas at risk, but without any starting point for a specific foreign policy.
Fernando Termentini
