Tension in Korea, the crazy power of Pyongyang: if a war breaks out, Seoul would be canceled in less than an hour

(To Franco Iacch)
07/01/16

The alleged hydrogen bomb tested by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea is in some ways only the latest problem for Seoul. It is common opinion, in fact, that if a war broke out between the two Koreas, the capital of the South would be canceled from Pyongyang within an hour. Although the Korean war ended in 1953, North and South are still technically at war. A conflict between the two countries was averted thanks to Seoul's moderation, despite Pyongyang's constant provocations.

On paper, the two armies are distinctly different. Modern and technologically advanced is that of South Korea, a mirror image of the Soviet Union that of the North. But underestimating Pyongyang would not be a wise choice, as noted by the analysis of possible forces in the field carried out by The National Interest.

Despite the antiquated military forces, North Korea would be able to cancel the capital of the South in less than an hour. And nobody could prevent it, including the United States. The military equipment of Pyongyang is considered primitive, but this could not prevent to unleash on Seoul a barrage of artillery estimated in half a million of grenades in little less than sixty minutes. Thousands of artillery pieces are mostly camouflaged and hidden. If a conflict breaks out, neither the US military nor South Korea's forces could hope to clear that threat. North Korean artillery is believed to be capable of hitting targets at a maximum of 40 miles.

The situation could become even more complicated if the Pyongyang regime decided to combine chemical weapons with artillery shells. A reserve, that of North Korea, which according to Nuclear Threat Initiative, oscillates between 2500 and 5000 tons of chemicals. Country that would be able to produce nerve agents like the Sarin and VX. The latter are considered to be at the center of the country's chemical weapons production.

To compensate for its conventional weakness, the Korean People's Army has invested enormous resources in training special departments. According to an estimate by 2010, about 200 thousand operators would be trained in missions to assassinate American and South Korean officials. The commandos would infiltrate the South using underground tunnels, mini-submersibles and biplanes Antonov An-2.

It is frightening, because it has been tested in the recent past, the capacity for cyber warfare acquired by Pyongyang. The country must make up for its many conventional weaknesses with asymmetric means. The real computer capacity is not known. It is considered inferior to the Russian or Chinese, but is still defined as "formidable" by the Pentagon.

Finally, ballistic missiles. There is no shield or countermeasure capable of foiling an attack carried by over 600 missiles Scud short-range, 200 Nodong, and about fifty Musudan e Taepodong. A third of these is considered armed with nuclear and chemical warheads.

Pyongyang invests billions of dollars in keeping at least two hundred ballistic missiles operational and ready to launch. Meanwhile, his population is starving.