The sabotage of the pipeline Nord Stream, on both lines, shed light on the now declared gas war. The West still cannot do without fossil fuels and the energy balance established in Europe, thanks to natural gas supplies from the Russian Federation, has now collapsed, not so much due to the war in Ukraine, but rather from the will hegemonic of the only superpower.
There is now no doubt that Europe must free itself from Russian gas and that its energy supplies must come, at least in part, from overseas.
Germany is a particular case. Since the beginning ofSpecial Operation in Ukraine it had been the European nation most intent on giving up Moscow's energy supplies. However, the German government, in the following months, must have made some calculations, so much so that, in addition to a return to the use of coal, it was willing to supply gas from the Russians (on the other hand, the contracts with Gazprom are still existing), given the objective impossibility of finding alternative sources at the same price.
The Swedish coast guard has discovered a fourth gas leak from the Nord Stream, Svenska Dagbladet reports. The main version of what happened right now is still sabotage, and in Sweden itself they are sure that the cause of the damage is an explosion.
Irish macroeconomist Philip Pilkington got to clarify that "Now that the Nord Stream gas pipelines are gone, it is worth talking about the deindustrialisation of Europe due to high energy costs. European production will no longer be economically sustainable. Energy costs, one of the key resources of the production will be too high for production processes to be carried out, it will simply be cheaper to buy products elsewhere.
It is possible that some of this production will move to America, but only in the short term. Because? Because investments in the manufacturing sector create demand for the products made. Production creates jobs in Europe and increases consumption.
Without manufacturing jobs, Europeans will have far less purchasing power. If any part of the production moves to America, it will be short-term. America will realize that much of its export market has collapsed.
There are also imports to the United States. The US continues to buy some products, but they will be much more expensive due to higher manufacturing costs. The United States will try to grab some production and locate it on its territory, but there are many limitations here: skilled labor, infrastructure, etc.
The collapse of European manufacturing is simply creating a black hole in Europe. This black hole is sucking up everything around it, while economic activity around its borders dries up. Europe will also have to respond by blocking exports to try to revive its uncompetitive industry.
In fact, the only strategy for Europe will be to isolate itself and impose more expensive products on its inhabitants. This will likely be accompanied by a policy of accelerating investment in the energy sector. This will lead to further economic chaos for the West.
It is essentially a repetition of what already happened in the 20s. This led to the Great Depression. But this time it will be only the West to sink into depression. The new BRICS + bloc is building a separate economic bloc and will continue to grow as the West withers and reap the rewards of its mistakes.
The European energy war will probably go down in history, together with the Treaty of Versailles and the trade wars of the 30s, as one of the greatest economic policy errors in history ”.
So a sort of reinterpretation of the Morgenthau Plan of the Second World War, this time extended to the entire European continent.
But our supply routes? Are they sufficiently protected?
At the moment, with the uncertainties relating to Russian supplies, channeled on continental gas pipelines, Italy knows that it is far from the levels of supplies necessary if one relies exclusively on connections from Algeria (TTPC), Libya (Green Stream) and Azerbaijan (TANAP / TAP). Already in these conditions, regardless of the prohibitive growth in costs, the need for a strong rationing of private and industrial consumption is hypothesized, with the consequent negative spiral that would ensue on the national economic system.
What few understand is that, with the technology currently available, it would be widely within the reach of a hostile nation to send simple warhead underwater vehicles (UUVs), also based on the unmanned coasts of Libya (those to be clear that use smugglers), to carry out attacks on both the Algerian and Libyan pipelines, bringing Italy overnight completely in the dark and within a week back tostone Age.
At the moment there is no credible and organic ability to avert this danger, but, even worse, there is no real perception of how tangible it can be and even on the agenda of a potential enemy, whether this is a sovereign state or a terrorist organization. .
While the threat of an aerial drone is fully understood, and therefore sensitive targets are protected with missile batteries, as far as our energy femoral arteries are concerned these are left completely uncovered, in the hope that there is no third party understanding or willingness to deliver the blow.
The same danger, as shown in the image, is run by all our data infrastructures, completely exposed to possible attacks.
While the security needs and opportunities of the space sector have been fully understood, following the large international players and carving out marginal but technologically advanced roles in the sector, underwater has been neglected.
This happens despite the differences in the scenario between the two fields should lead Italy to favor the diving sector: the USA, for example, does not obtain energy supply through submarine gas pipelines, and the density of vital installations in the oceans is immensely lower. Coastal installations are thousands of kilometers away from potential threats.
Italy, on the other hand, is stretched out in a sea densely populated with installations that are vital to us, with short distances and numerous areas of real or potential instability. This should have suggested an autonomy of thought and the implementation of defense policies that incorporate specific national needs. Furthermore, the space sector itself is dynamically led to a global coverage in which we find ourselves under an allied umbrella, while in the specificity of diving Italy is left to itself, as the main allied player, France, does not it feeds with submarine gas pipelines and owes much of its self-sufficiency to nuclear power plants (a source of energy that we suddenly refused).
In recent decades, unfortunately, there has been a culpable delay in developing a concept of security policy of national interests that was based on internal evaluations and was not linked to the needs of collective alliances, in which specific Italian needs are put in the background.
