Conferences are often useful because they allow you to meet people with whom you build business relationships and sometimes friendships. Therefore, a conference should not be seen only as a moment of arrival, the conclusion of a path, but also as a moment in which new ideas and new collaborations are born thanks to the fact that it stimulates reflection.
In this article we will therefore talk about what emerged during the conference organized by Army Study Center last June 8th trying to focus on some issues that we believe are the most relevant and to be tackled immediately.
To do this we will try to answer a few questions:
What distinguishes an Artificial Intelligence from that of the human being?
What effects could there be on military organizations?
What military capabilities will be most affected by the introduction of Artificial Intelligence?
To make an analysis we use the DOTMLPF method, an English acronym widely used in the military which translated stands for Doctrine, Organization, Training, Leadership and formation, Infrastructure.
This method of analysis, used by the United States Department of Defense to study and plan the organizational changes required to complete a mission or to study a new capability, has also become a reference over the years at a national and NATO level, albeit with some changes (including the addition of the interop I).
Before proceeding with our analysis and trying to answer the questions, we must however remember that Artificial Intelligence (AI) has already fully entered our civil society and consequently also military organizations. We must therefore be aware that, in the majority of cases, we will not be able to choose whether or not to introduce AI. At most we will be able to choose whether to suffer it or, according to the progressive level of ambition that we give ourselves: to manage it, exploit it or try to govern it.
What does this mean in terms of organizational adaptation?
It means changes to come in every sector!
Doctrine
The introduction of Artificial Intelligence into the military will undoubtedly require a revision of the doctrine. This is because it represents a big change compared to the changes induced by traditionally used technologies, AI could introduce an epochal change with the replacement of man not only in "operational" functions (implementation, analysis, relational ...), but also in those “decision making” (with all the constraints and distinctions of the case). Some of the parts of the doctrine that will be most affected by artificial intelligence include:
- Analysis and information gathering, a sector in which Artificial Intelligence can be used to analyze large amounts of data from different sources to provide detailed information on potential threats, their own vulnerabilities and potential targets.
- Planning and coordination of operations, where Artificial Intelligence can be used for operations planning, the choice of strategies as well as the coordination of resources to ensure effective execution.
- Control and surveillance of operations, where Artificial Intelligence can be used for real-time monitoring of operations, to enable greater adherence, flexibility and responsiveness.
- Training and education, Artificial Intelligence can be used to create continuous and personalized training courses on the needs and background of the individual, as well as for simulation and training in increasingly realistic combat situations.
- Logistics and resource management, in this sector Artificial Intelligence can generate considerable benefits already in a short time: harmonizing needs, availability and supply flows, minimizing the use of human operators, thus allowing to improve operational efficiency and safety, all possibly also reducing management costs.
- IT security and cyberdefence, Artificial Intelligence can be used to detect and prevent cyber attacks, improving the security and resilience of military information systems.
In doctrinal terms this corresponds to a revolution. Military doctrine constantly evolves to keep pace with changes in technology, politics, society, and other factors affecting military operations. With the introduction of Artificial Intelligence, many parts of the current doctrine, as can be guessed, will have to be adapted, at least in the sectors indicated above.
Therefore, a question arises: Will one day also the evolution of the doctrine be the task of a specific artificial intelligence?
Organization.
Let us now try to deepen the organizational aspect.
Artificial Intelligence can have a significant impact on the organizational structure of the military, education and training, the chain of command and strategic decisions. It will probably be necessary to proceed with the rationalization of the structure of Command and Control national and review the relations between this and the supranational ones (NATO and EU in primis). In particular, the introduction of Artificial Intelligence requires greater or different attention to the planning and management of organizational transformation processes.
It is necessary to adapt organizational structures to new needs and integrate Artificial Intelligence technologies into the chain of command and decision-making. Furthermore, the training of military personnel must be reviewed to ensure they are prepared to use Artificial Intelligence technologies effectively and safely. This requires specialized training and the acquisition of new technical skills.
All of this requires a careful assessment of the benefits and risks associated with the use of Artificial Intelligence technologies, as well as greater attention to information security and data protection.
Education and Training.
We have mentioned the need for specific training. In fact, the introduction of Artificial Intelligence in the military will have a significant impact on military education and training.
First, the Armed Forces will have to train military personnel in Artificial Intelligence technologies and their applications in the military. The military will have to acquire advanced technical skills related to the design and configuration methodologies of Artificial Intelligence technologies, they will have to understand the techniques of machine learning, artificial vision and natural language processing. They will need to be able to use sophisticated IT tools to analyze large amounts of data and to make forecasts and scenario analyses.
The introduction of Artificial Intelligence will require greater attention to simulation and virtual training. Artificial Intelligence technologies will make it possible to create realistic and adaptable training environments, capable of simulating combat situations and effectively exercising military skills.
Theoretically, AI can also be used to tailor military training to the specific needs of individual servicemen. For example, to identify each military's areas of strength and weakness and to provide personalized and targeted training.
Artificial Intelligence could also be used to support the military personnel selection process, but in my opinion it should be used with caution and in a complementary way to assessments made by human experts.
Artificial Intelligence could be used to analyze large amounts of data relating to the performance and skills of the military, to identify any risk factors and to predict the potential success of an individual in a given position or role depending on the situation and its preparation. Furthermore, Artificial Intelligence could be used to identify the skills and abilities needed for a given role and to suggest the training needed to achieve them.
However, it is important to emphasize that Artificial Intelligence cannot replace the experience and judgment of human experts in the selection of military personnel, it will therefore be necessary to develop Artificial Intelligence models designed to be used as a tool for human experts to ensure accurate and well-considered decisions.
Furthermore, it is also important to consider the possible ethical and fairness issues in the selection of personnel using Artificial Intelligence, such as the presence of any bias, i.e. bias in the data and machine learning models used, which could lead to discriminatory or unfair decisions.
Materials
Artificial Intelligence can affect military materials, and more generally material logistics, in several ways:
- in the Design of military weapons and vehicles, helping to develop more efficient and effective solutions for the specific purposes of the organization;
- in Production: to optimize production processes, reducing costs and improving the quality of the military materials produced
- in Maintenance: to monitor the state of maintenance and health of military materials, allowing timely and preventive intervention to avoid any problems.
- in Employment: to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the use of military equipment, for example by helping the military make better decisions in combat situations.
- finally, in improving Logistics Support and Logistics Planning.
Leadership
The introduction of Artificial Intelligence could mean significant changes for the military leadership as well. Military leaders will need to be able to understand the potential and limitations of Artificial Intelligence and integrate them into their decision-making strategies.
In addition, leaders will need to be able to manage the introduction of Artificial Intelligence within the organization, setting goals and priorities for the use of Artificial Intelligence and ensuring adequate training for staff.
An AI time leader should have a number of important characteristics, including:
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Understanding of Artificial Intelligence: The leader must have a good understanding of what Artificial Intelligence is capable of and how it can be used to achieve the goals of the organization.
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Ability to adapt to change: Since AI can impact the way organizations operate, an effective leader must be able to quickly adapt to change and manage change within the organization.
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Ability to make informed decisions: AI can provide valuable and insightful information to help leaders make decisions. However, it is important for leaders to be able to analyze information and make decisions based on a combination of data and judgment.
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Ethics: Leaders must be able to consider the impact of Artificial Intelligence on people and society and take an ethical approach to their implementation. This may involve establishing guidelines and policies to ensure that Artificial Intelligence is used responsibly and safely.
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Ability to develop and manage blended team: A military leader will likely need to be able to develop and manage a team that includes both people and machines. This requires an understanding of the capabilities of Artificial Intelligence and the human skills needed to work with it.
Let's ask ourselves a question: what do we see in the future?
Is a non-human leader conceivable?
Have we reached the point where it is necessary to take science fiction books in hand and use them to understand the possible developments of our society?
It seems so.
In any case, the final decision, in my opinion, must always remain in the hands of human leadership.
Staff
The adoption of Artificial Intelligence within military organizations will certainly have a significant impact on personnel, both in terms of training and assignment of tasks. In fact, the use of advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence requires specific technical expertise on the part of military personnel, who must be trained to use Artificial Intelligence tools and systems.
- Artificial Intelligence could change the nature of the tasks assigned to military personnel. Some activities that today are carried out by human operators could be automated through the use of robots or autonomous systems based on Artificial Intelligence. In this scenario, military personnel could be engaged in supervision or management of Artificial Intelligence systems, rather than directly executing operations.
- in some situations, such as the collection of information on enemy positions or the detection of improvised explosive devices, the adoption of Artificial Intelligence could also increase the effectiveness and safety of military personnel, employing autonomous or robotic systems yes can reduce the risk of human casualties.
- with regard to the number of personnel, it must be said that if artificial intelligences are used for repetitive and standardized tasks, such as for example the monitoring of an area or the surveillance of a structure, the number of military personnel employed could be reduced . However, this reduction must be carefully verified, because in part it has already been achieved, for example with the introduction of remote control technologies.
- if artificial intelligences are employed for more complex and sophisticated tasks, such as intelligence data analysis or operations planning, more specialized personnel may be needed to work closely with artificial intelligences and ensure the effectiveness of operations.
Perhaps the most complex part will consist in the training aimed at collaborating effectively with Artificial Intelligences, and in understanding their capabilities and in particular their limitations, in order to make the best use of them during military operations.
In general, the possibility of using robots equipped with Artificial Intelligence to replace some categories of military personnel requires careful considerations, linked to the operational and economic advantages and disadvantages but also of social balance or unbalance, which the introduction of Artificial Intelligences could cause in an already complex system.
Infrastructure
Military infrastructure will have to be designed and adapted to support the use of artificial intelligence in decision-making, data processing and communication between different units. This could require the updating and replacement of information and communication systems, as well as the creation of suitable environments for the development and training of artificial intelligences.
Furthermore, the use of artificial intelligences could require the creation of specific infrastructures for their maintenance and repair (case of use of robots). Since artificial intelligences are made up of highly sophisticated computer systems, their maintenance could require specialized skills and controlled work environments or the continuous presence of personnel from the companies that developed them.
Let us now consider the use of robots from an energy point of view: the use of technologies based on artificial intelligence requires a considerable consumption of energy, both for training and for data processing and for powering robots. This may lead to the need to review the energy infrastructure of military installations now adapted to human presence, in order to ensure the supply of sufficient energy to support Artificial Intelligence technologies.
Energy consumption in the military could represent a much more formidable logistical challenge in operational situations.
Energy sources may be limited in certain operational situations, such as a military operation in a remote area or conflict zone. It may therefore be necessary to consider the adoption of more efficient energy solutions to ensure the operation of Artificial Intelligence technologies. Some might argue that logistics has always been a big deal, at all times. And he would be right: but the introduction of Artificial Intelligences will introduce new problems in a field where the decision could involve the choice between the death of human beings or the shutdown of Artificial Intelligences due to the scarcity of resources.
Upgrading existing infrastructure to the presence of artificial intelligence may require investments in energy storage technologies, which can guarantee a continuous supply of energy. This could lead to additional costs for the military organization. Some estimates state that the introduction of Artificial Intelligence will cause an increase in energy consumption of up to 5% by 2025. What will happen next?
Interoperability
The introduction of artificial intelligences in the military system could increase the interoperability problems since the Artificial Intelligences could be designed with different technologies and with different communication protocols, which could make their integration within an already existing military system difficult. It should also be considered that artificial intelligences are developed by different suppliers and countries, this could result in them not being able to communicate effectively with each other, which could limit their usefulness on the battlefield.
The question of developments and production in different countries is not trivial as it introduces "cognitive biases" specific to different peoples and cultures. This could translate into problems of understanding between human beings and artificial intelligences but also between artificial intelligences and artificial intelligences of different origins and designs.
There are also the security problems that have not been dealt with but which become very relevant as artificial intelligences and all that is needed for them to be produced, trained and maintained, belongs to the field of digital technologies and by increasing the complexity of these systems, the consequently the vulnerability.
Conclusions
Artificial intelligence will bring with it many changes, which will influence everyone's way of thinking and managing their activities and therefore also the military.
In any case, it is unthinkable to stand outside and watch: the world is changing too fast to think about waiting, this would mean undergoing the changes.
It is necessary to work immediately to spread knowledge of the new sector and begin to raise awareness and skills in the military environment.
Finally, but perhaps more important than the previous considerations, it is necessary to always take into due consideration, from the beginning of each analysis, the risks associated with the use of these technologies.
Alessandro Rugolo, Giorgio Giacinto, Marco De Luca Saggese
Frame: Milrem Robotics
