"There could be unintentional accidents if the Coalition armed forces do not start collaborating with Syria." The warning was launched a few hours ago by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, commenting on the "new Syrian issue".
As is well known, the United States is waging an air campaign against Islamic State targets, while the Russians continue to send troops and equipment to help Assad. The two most powerful nations in the world engaged in the same (restricted) battle space, are on the edge of a civil war, without initiating a contact to prevent any kind of conflict in combat. It should be noted that the coordination of the Allied air campaign absolutely does not take into account the government of Damascus (in fact it operates without ever having requested such a permit), even if in the past imminent military actions have been communicated to the Syrian representative to the United Nations. The latter then warned Damascus about the operations. The lack of communication between Russians and Americans is in any case worrying and cannot be taken lightly.
Those "unintentional accidents" feared by Lavrov could take place immediately if a strategic-tactical communication were not established. Although relations between the two countries are deeply flawed after the Ukraine, Russia and the United States continue to communicate through various channels. The latest contacts, in order of time, were the two phone calls between Lavrov and US Secretary of State Kerry. That military "bond" that broke after the annexation of Crimea had for years been considered fundamental to avoid "unwanted unintended accidents".
The chessboard, meanwhile, is in constant motion. After Ukraine and Bulgaria, the United States is pushing for an agreement with Turkey to use other bases to coordinate raids against ISIS. The United States, if it obtained the requisite bases, would prevent (for operational reasons) the transit of Russian aircraft to Syria. A strategy also aimed at the defense (and formation) of moderate Syrian fighters, enemies of Assad (therefore of the Russians) and of the Islamic State.
It should be noted that if the Turks, under US pressure, were to block the passage from the Bosphorus, between Russia and Syria, they would do so in violation of the Montreux Convention. Also in this we are in the field of mere suppositions: the Turks depend almost totally on the Russians for energy supply and Moscow could interpret this denial as a hostile act. Finally, the West continues to ignore the tragedy that is taking place in Cizre, a south-eastern Turkish city with a Kurdish majority, where a real civil war is taking place (for the government they are all PKK terrorists). A Cizre would have done atrocities, but the spotlight seems to be turned off on what is happening in this country.
Returning to Syria, yesAccording to the Pentagon, the Russians have already deployed SA-22 missiles to protect the Syrian city of Latakia. Neither the rebels nor the Islamic State own an air force. It is clear that these positions are a warning against coalition fighters. The latter, in fact, acted undisturbed until last week.
A state-of-the-art Russian SAM defense will require a review of the entire aerial strategy. The United States, for example, if they decide to attack (or defend) an area close to the Russian one, they certainly cannot rely on platforms capable of representing an easy prey for the systems Greyhounds.
We are, however, in the field of assumptions: one wonders, in fact, if the Russians can really enlighten and engage an allied fighter and if the US wants to raise even more the bar of provocations, with unauthorized flights over the Russian infrastructure. A dangerous "game" of nerves with actors who have not yet revealed their true role in the story.
Meanwhile, Lavrov has confirmed that the Russian navy is about to kick off exercises off the Syrian coast. Cyprus (NOTAM received last September 3rd) has already been informed via official channels: until the next 7 October there will be naval exercises off the Syrian coast, which houses the only Russian naval base in the Mediterranean, in the port of Tartous. The Russians have transferred five warships to the area. The identity of the boats has not yet been issued, but it certainly seems the use of the flagship of the fleet, the missile class cruiser Glory, Moscow.
According to a statement from the Cypriot government, Russian units will test the land-to-air defenses of the coast, simulating an attack from the sky. Translated means the use of short-range air defense systems. The Soviet and US navies shared detailed action plans during the Cold War to avoid accidents or dangerous interactions. These protocols could be reintroduced to avoid accidents in Syria.
One point, however, is clear: the United States will oppose any action that could authorize the Syrian government to intensify the fighting with the rebels that the White House continues to support. It is feared, in fact, that the Russians could, by exploiting the campaign against ISIS, guarantee the continuation of the Assad government.
Russian support, in the coalition formed by more than 60 countries against ISIS, would be well received - added the White House spokesman Josh Earnest - while any support for the Assad regime would be counterproductive.
However, the United States remains unaware of Russia's true intentions in Syria. An incapacity, that of stealing the real intentions of Putin, who prevented the Obama administration from anticipating the invasion of Ukraine or responding effectively to the conflict that then arose.
(In the opening photo - web - the cruiser launches Moskva, to follow images of the humanitarian aid that would be transported to Syria by the Russian airlift ... - MoD Russian Fed.)
