An eventuality that is not too remote considering that in Algeria an Al Qaeda cell has been present and operative for some time, the AQIM originated from a Salafi group (GIA) "born for preaching and fighting" in the 90 years with the aim of establish an Islamic State since then. A subversive group conceptually close to ISIS.
A structure that perhaps first in the history of Islamic subversion invented "self-financing" through the proceeds of kidnappings of Westerners and extortion in general. It is estimated that over the past ten years AQIM has raised more than 50 million dollars.
In the 2013 the French military intervention has partly stopped or at least disarticulated the operational factions in the north of Mali avoiding the advance towards the south of the Islamic rebels who had the objective of seizing the capital and thus founding an Islamic Caliphate. Objective that included the liberation of North Africa from Western influence, the overthrow of Islamic apostate governments, including Algeria, Libya, Mali, Mauritania, Morocco and Tunisia, destined to be replaced by fundamentalist governments supporting Islamic Sharia.
Now, worrying signs indicate that at least a part of AQIM looks with sympathy on ISIS 'successes and is thinking of leaving Al Qaeda by moving away from al-Zawahiri's leadership to approach politically and militarily to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.
Al-Baghdadi, the new leader of self-proclaimed Iraqi caliph extremism, operating for some time with other names as reported in the archives of former American agent Edward Snowden, is today a leading figure in the most extremist current of Sunni Islam.
The negative protagonist of the world scenario has founded the Islamic Caliphate of ISIS and, after a slow penetration of the Iraqi territory, has settled in ancient Mesopotamia, in the area of Mosul, one of the largest and most important cities in Iraq where the Caliphate has laid its foundations.
Leader of an economically powerful structure, as we are told by analyst Michael Knights, a partner of the Washington Institute for North American policies in the Middle East, who values ISIS as the richest terrorist organization in the world. The proceeds derive from a criminal management of Iraqi oil, smuggled through Syria to Turkey and also to the West. An illegal traffic with revenues ranging between 2 million dollars and 4 million dollars a day. Immense resources that would allow extremists to "buy" the victory and impose their dominion over entire areas of Mesopotamia in a medium period of time with the dramatic consequences that are already visible to everyone.
Its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is watched with interest by other factions of Islamic extremism present in the world and in particular in North Africa. The AQIM is an example. Always close to Al Qaeda, now it seems about to split with a very dangerous division that could be decisive for a new destabilization of North Africa after the dubious successes of the Arab spring.
A schism, as reported by the well-informed Algerian daily El Kabar, externally accompanied by other factions such as the Tunisian Ansar al-Sharia, an extremist group that promotes radicalism that in July 2013 declared its loyalty to ISIS through a passionate speech held in Kairouan mosque by its AST spokesperson, Seifeddine Rais, and support for ISIS by Boko Haram leader, Abubakar Shekau.
A fracture that could occur in the short term. In fact, within AQIM we are increasingly consolidating divergent positions. Abu Musab Wadud (Abdelmalek Droukdel) a prominent AQIM leader has officially denied any form of loyalty to ISIS even though rumors circulate that the 4 July 2014 secretly exchanged two letters with al-Baghdadi expressing all its support.
An ambiguity that is accompanied by the positions taken by Algerian Salafist jihadist groups that always according to El Katbar seem to be oriented to swear unconditional loyalty to al-Baghdadi, founding a branch of the Islamic State in the Maghreb, outside the organization to which they belong.
A situation that is still fluid but that shows a certain propensity to turn towards ISIS abandoning Al Qaeda. Dangerous reality, that local analysts are looking with concern even considering the consistent existence of quality weapons deposits in Libya, which could be purchased by ISIS and distributed to friendly factions that are emerging in the area.
In summary, in the short term we could configure three different scenarios and compete with each other.
The first who could see the birth of an expanding Caliphate under the leadership of Droukdel, who would have the ability to coagulate groups from Mali, Tunisia and Algeria itself.
A second scenario represented by the consolidation of allied forces to Libya and Egypt managed by al-Baghdadi supervision.
Finally, a third scenario with the birth of a minor caliphate that could take root in Libyan territories controlled by jihadist militias.
A situation that could become unmanageable if not immediately addressed, with absolutely negative repercussions on international security, creating a third area of instability after that of Iraq and Syria and which Hamas and the Lebanese Hezbollah close to Iran could take advantage of, which at the moment, he is a silent and careful observer of the events.
Fernando Termentini
