According to the Pentagon, the Allied air campaign has allowed the elimination of about ten thousand fundamentalists and, according to the United States, ISIS would control 25% less than the territory in Iraq since, ten months ago, the driving raids began USA. But, as often happens with such analyzes, these numbers are impossible to verify independently and suggest that, at best, the Islamic State is a much larger and more organized organization than imagined by American officials.
The promises made last year ("Iraqi troops will resume Mosul"), now seem unrealistic. President Barack Obama himself acknowledged that the recent developments in Iraq and Syria by ISIS impose a change in the strategy adopted to date. Speaking at the end of the G-7 conference in Germany, Obama said he had asked the Pentagon for a new approach to accelerate US efforts to train and equip Iraqi forces.
We do not yet have a complete strategy - Obama said - because it requires a substantial commitment of the Iraqis (therefore, it would seem, a different attitude than the one we had until now).
Let's analyze what the Islamic State is today. The number of people living under the rule of the Islamic State has grown since the Allied air campaign began. Practically all the population of the predominantly Sunni province of Anbar, in Iraq, is under ISIS control. We must then add Ramadi, the provincial capital, a city of almost 900.000 people.
The situation in Syria does not improve. The city of Palmyra, a famous tourist destination, has been under the control of the Islamic State since last May as well as most of the province of Deir el Zour, an important oil production area. Despite the continuous air raids, the area near Kobane, known as Ayn al Arab, is considered under Isis dominance. The caliphate then launched offensives (both military and ideological) in the Hasaka province, in Syria and cells are active in Damascus as well as in Aleppo.
ISIS, after more than a year of siege, would no longer be in control of the Iraqi oil plant in Baiji, but this is out of order even for the Allies.
Isis then developed a unique logistic capacity in Iraq and that regular troops can only imagine. Water and ammunition reach the front lines in any battle against regular troops. The terrorists then continue to capture weapons and vehicles that reuse in new offensives.
ISIS has proved to be an evolving and reconfigurable system, with contextualised asymmetrical capabilities. The last episode in the battle of Ramadi, as much as thirty C4-loaded armored vehicles and explosives, were used to devastate the barriers placed to protect the command structures. These improvised explosive devices, nicknamed "the definitive martyrdom weapon", are now the terror of the Iraqi militias who, at their sight, flee without ever facing them.
The Pentagon, to try to rebalance its forces and combat suicide bombings, has begun to distribute two thousand anti-tank rockets in Iraq (one wonders how many of these will really come to the forefront).
In Libya, where the struggle between the two rival governments has left the country in chaos, fighters close to the Islamic State control Sirte, the birthplace of the late Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi.
From Pakistan, ISIS has gained loyalty from half a dozen small factions, although the latter have maintained a low profile, suffering some notable setbacks.
In Saudi Arabia, the Islamic State claimed responsibility for the recent suicide bombings in two Shiite Muslim mosques. Attacks occurred after the claims of the leader of the Islamic State, Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, who declared the current rulers of the Arabian Peninsula illegitimate
Furthermore, ISIS has shown a unique interactive capacity. Despite the efforts made to obscure the organization, the group maintains an incredible presence on social media and continues to proselytize (the failed attack on the convention in Garland, Texas, was carried by men reached by the Islamic State on social media. Although the attack failed, the official ISIS radio broadcasting in Iraq and Syria praised their sacrifice, calling them the 'Brothers of the Caliphate'.
A recent United Nations report confirmed that the number of foreign fighters who consecrate themselves to the cause of ISIS has increased by 71 per cent since the acquisition of Mosul, practically a year ago. The multiracial force created comes from more than 100 countries. According to the report, the new fundamentalists come mainly from France, Russia, Morocco and Tunisia. What emerges is that the social component strengthens relations between foreign terrorists, a situation that could lay the foundation for future transnational networks between veteran fighters.
It is also true that there have been successes in countering the Islamic State. Iraqi government troops, last April, recaptured the city of Tikrit, in central Iraq, after fierce clashes and a grueling air bombing campaign.
The Kurdish regional government of Iraq then halted the impetus of the Islamic state in areas near the capital Irbil, last August.
Last October, Iraqi government forces resumed the city of Jurf at the Sakr, southwest of Baghdad, eliminating the threat of cutting Baghdad from predominantly Shiite areas in southern Iraq.
Finally, the United States and NATO allies have poured billions of dollars into military equipment and training in Iraq, including 3.000 American military advisers.
Iran has sent an unknown number of military specialists, some of whom are regularly engaged in gun battles against the Islamic State. But the progress of the campaign is slow to show itself.
The US military says the coalition has destroyed more than 6.200 Islamic State targets, including combat stations, tactical units, vehicles of all types and oil infrastructure used for group funding. Numbers that, however, cannot be confirmed, as is the estimate, that 25% less, of the territory lost by Isis since the beginning of the air campaign. In fact, as emerges from a map published by the Central Command of the United States, the Kurdish forces - a mix of Iraqi, Kurdish, Syrian peshmerga and connected with the Kurdistan Workers' Party, PKK - have stabilized the front line throughout the Kurdish autonomous region in Iraq. But it is not plausible with a stroke of a pen on a map, to state that even the vast desert regions of Iraq have been liberated, considering the areas that fall within the province of al Anbar, where the Islamic State dominates.
In the neighboring areas of Baghdad, the United States claims to have rejected the Islamic State beyond the vast areas of Diyala province. It would be correct to say, however, that the province of Diyala, composed of numerous Sunni and Shiite villages, has never been under the control of the Islamic State. Even some victories of the Iraqi government have proved to be defeats, such as the conquest of the Baiji refinery, which took place after months of bitter conflict. The plant, which produces 40 per cent of the entire Iraqi oil, has been regained, but is practically destroyed with the entire offline extraction line indefinitely.
In Syria, the Kurdish forces of the north, with the help of American air strikes, have foiled the attempt by the Islamic State to capture Kobanê, widening their foothold to the city of Qamishli. But the Islamic State has consolidated control of most of the major crossroads around the city of Deir el Zour, which connects the Iraqi province of Anbar and the capital of the Islamic State north of Syria.
Franco Iacch
(photo: US DoD)
