In recent months, tensions and crises in various areas of the globe seem to be intensifying. Starting from the Mediterranean where the migrant emergency seems to be worsening in many respects (see the recent potential scandals on NGOs whose scope could still be discovered ...) we reach the Korean peninsula whose reports seem to have relaunched the sale on a global scale. of fallout shelters. Accomplices of such alarm are certainly too many comments from "experts" who never set foot on a ship (except to go to Sardinia) or who - "born strategists" - never wore a uniform (perhaps even if belonging to a generation in which draft was mandatory).
To offer readers an unprecedented point of view, we met an Italian who certainly got on a military ship, Admiral Giuseppe De Giorgi, former Chief of Staff of the Navy who has always had an indisputable value: always telling the truth, however uncomfortable ...
We start from our shores. Today there are those who regret "Mare Nostrum", an operation created to give a concrete response to the Mediterranean drama. What happened later and why was it canceled despite the fact that the emergency never ended?
Mare Nostrum was the answer to an unprecedented humanitarian emergency. What many people do not remember is that state ships were operating on board our ships, providing for the identification of migrants and medical personnel, to ensure the sanitary filter before landing. A broad-spectrum operation, not only humanitarian, based on the inter-agency and inter-agency coordination of the Navy that, in addition to greatly reducing the number of deaths at sea, has allowed the arrest of almost 400 human traffickers.
The growing fear of foreigners in public opinion and of a part of the policy that accused Mare Nostrum of being a "pull factor" (the facts have shown the opposite), the lack of European support for Frontex, the appearance of ISIS in Libya, they have marked its destiny. Mare Nostrum was therefore replaced by Mare Sicuro (still in progress), oriented primarily to maritime safety, flanked by the EU Sofia mission, with the aim of counteracting the freedom of movement of human traffickers and preparing the Libyan navy coast guard to exercise control over its coasts and territorial waters. The ships have naturally continued to provide relief, along with the merchant ships, but the number of migrants who have arrived in Italy has increased significantly, unfortunately the number of dead at sea.
NGO ships have recently multiplied and the situation, especially in terms of contrasting human traffickers, has been decidedly complicated. Meanwhile at least 500.00 desperately accumulated in Libya (someone talks about many more) waiting to be transported to Italy. It is a bomb set off under the humanitarian profile of waiting to explode. The opening of humanitarian corridors, after the activation of presidia, preferably EU, otherwise Italian, of reception and verification in Libyan territory would achieve the result of profoundly damaging the business of traffickers of human beings and certainly would not be free from risks for our personnel. From this point of view, the Marina San Marco Brigade supported by a couple of LPDs could ensure, together with the Libyan government of the Sarraji government, the necessary security framework, maintaining a light logistic footprint thanks to ships, Dal largo il Cavour o the Garibaldi and the LPD could provide protection with their air component and in the worst case the evacuation of the personnel in case of need. The government, before Renzi and now of Gentiloni, has achieved remarkable results in the control of migratory flows coming from Niger and Fezzan, so it is time to take away space from traffickers in Libya, before the humanitarian situation degenerates further. Europe will follow.
In your opinion, what scenario has the so-called "Arab Spring" given us?
The Arab spring did not bring as many thought to the affirmation of democracy in the states of North Africa and the Middle East. The opposite has happened. The fire of Islamic fundamentalism has flared up, fueling centrifugal forces that are questioning what seemed to be inevitable cultural and political trends and with them the fate of some great Muslim nations, apparently moving towards modernity (eg Turkey). From east to west, the civil war in Syria, aggravated by the presence of ISIS, the risk of destabilization in Egypt, the collapse of Libya, in fact divided between Cyrenaica, Tripolitania and Fezzan, with vast "no man's lands", pose problems of security of direct national interest: out-of-control migration flows, less secure maritime communication lines (just think of the security of SUEZ!), danger of environmental disasters, possible attacks on oil platforms, in addition to the foreseeable attempt to insert further components in Libya of ISIS fleeing Syria and Iraq. This is why it is urgent for Europe to review the strategy towards the Mediterranean, starting with support for the so-called "migration compact", promoted by Italy and in the stabilization of Libya.
We can, indeed we must, take the initiative and play an active role in Libya, contributing significantly to the security of the Mediterranean. Europe will follow, but we must be aware that no one will take our chestnuts out of the fire.
How do you judge Trump's policy towards the Pyongyang regime? The New York Times reported that the misunderstanding of the aircraft carrier Vinson (photo) was born because of communication problems between the various defense institutions (v.articolo). Is Trump bluffing or is the American president's hard power really ready to put the North Korean government on the ropes?
The combination of sanctions and subsidies to North Korea that characterized the US policy towards it from the 1994 onwards has not achieved the desired goals, namely the opening of the regime to the Western world and above all the renunciation of the military nuclear race. From the 1994 to today, North Korea has systematically disregarded the commitments made in exchange for the aid received, promptly resuming its race towards nuclear power. The regime considers this the only way for its survival and will not give up unless it is actually roped. The location of the aircraft carriers and the demonstration of the presence of US nuclear submarines in the area constitute a signal, not only for Korea, but also for China for a change of pace in American policy in the area. Mind you, the US pressure to be effective, net of a possible military option (today unlikely to less than a manifest North Korean provocation that allows China not to react in turn), will have to use even more the cards of the block of financial assets in dollars, owned by North Korea in the western world and the interruption of the constant flow of aid from South Korea. An important role in the slowdown of the nuclear race will continue to play it also the so-called cyberwarfare, probably already underway in the light of the recent failures in Korean missile launch tests.
In this geopolitical scenario, what role do Russia and China play in the Kim Jong-un affair and in the deployment of the THAAD (photo) in South Korea?
Many analysts are convinced that China will solve the game, forcing Kim Jong Un to stop. China is certainly part of the solution, but it is also part of the problem, because rather than witnessing the reunification of Korea under Seoul and having the Americans on its borders, it will support the Korean dictator, even accepting its acquisition of a limited atomic capacity. It is therefore evident that it is necessary to find agreements and choices that satisfy the Chinese ambitions / interests in the first place, avoiding the collapse of the regime of Kim Jon Un, so that it is worthwhile for China to intervene incisively on North Korea.
The US moves, including the approach of one or more carrier groups, in the waters facing North Korea, the attack on the Syrian airbase, the demonstrative launch in Afghanistan of the conventional super bomb (suitable for the destruction of bunkers, underground installations , etc.), the ostentatious "unpredictability" of Trump, could at this time increase the strength of any Chinese mediation against Korea. US willingness to install THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Air Defense) missile systems in South Korea aims not only to reassure South Korea and Japan about US willingness to protect allies, but also as a form of further pressure on China , which has always opposed the inclusion of such missiles in the theater.
Meanwhile, the Americans should also fully utilize the map of the blockade of North Korean financial assets in the world in the world and also force South Korea to interrupt the flow of aid to the North, to effectively put the regime of Kim Jung Un in front to a binding choice.
For Russia the tension in the East is an opportunity to present itself as an alternative to China in terms of US containment in the area and to obtain, in exchange for its non-interference, greater freedom of maneuver in Syria, vis-à-vis Egypt, of Libya and more generally in the Mediterranean.
We must not overlook the weight of Japan, which is one of the key players for the security of the Eastern Pacific and a fundamental economic and military partner of the USA in the area. The dispute over the islands of the China Sea is one of the weak links in the negotiations between the US and China on the Korean question, complicating not only the equation of the relationship with China as a whole and consequently the way out of the North Korean crisis.
By now Kim Jong Un is able to hit South Korea and probably Japan. The time available to China and the US to resolve the issue is coming to an end.
(photo: Online Defense / Navy / US Navy / US DoD)
