Syria: early offensive on Raqqa but the war between Islamists makes the game of Turkey and USA

(To Giampiero Venturi)
31/05/16

Thousands of Syrian soldiers are concentrated along the route that virtually connects Hama to Raqqa, the self-proclaimed capital of the Islamic State. 1500 other chosen men (Falcons of the Desert e Marine infantrymen) would have joined 4 unitsa Mechanized division and armed departments of the party Baath to begin the maneuver from Ithriya eastwards on the 42 road leading to the Governorate stronghold of the Caliphate. The offensive would be expected in the coming weeks.

The push from below towards Raqqa is necessary for Assad given the quagmire of Aleppo, where the stalemate continues and everything suggests long times for a real military turning point.

Precisely because of pressure from the south, ISIS military activity has become more dynamic in the north from where the most important military and political innovations arrive.

The clashes between ISIS and other Islamist fronts have increased considerably throughout the region north of Aleppo, with repercussions on the entire sector to the northwest near the town of Idlib.

Just from Idlib, news arrives in these hours of civilians killed by Russian air force raids, engaged in dozens of daily raids throughout the area. The news is systematically spread in the West through the Syrian Human Rights Observatory, directed by Rami Abdel Rahman, controversial anti-Assad dissident funded by London. On their truthfulness we leave the comment to the readers.

The great air offensive of these hours, according to reports by the Russian Chief of Staff General Gerasimov, would be aimed indiscriminately against the Caliphate and Islamist militiamen (including Al Nusra), at war with each other. The resurgence of the internal struggle between fundamentalist groups could seem an advantage for Damascus; it is more appropriate to imagine instead that it is offering the pretext to Turkey and the United States to help the so-called moderate Islamic factions, but in reality often heavily penetrated by fundamentalism. Local sources of Online Defense confirm that only between April and May 6000 would be the militia passed through the Turkish border. The big one would have reinforced Al Nusra (Al Qaeda Syrian) allowing it to counter the offensive of the Syrian Armed Forces, which in March had recovered almost all of the territory between Latakia and Idlib, effectively closing the front. The passage of supply convoys (especially arms and ammunition) from Turkey would be uninterrupted. The situation north east of Latakia remains fluid, with conflicting daily bulletins. 

Turkey, on the other hand, would have proposed to the United States joint operations on Syrian territory as long as they do not involve Kurdish militias. We remind you that theSDF (with whom Arabs also fight) is helped on the ground by American special forces. The Americans do not officially respond to the invitation, but the reflections will be seen in the coming weeks.

The request would explain the political game and medium-long term objectives of Ankara (and Washington): essentially to arm anti-Assad militiamen (including the terrorists of Al Nusra) engaged in the war against ISIS. Once the Caliphate was identified as a "public enemy", the merit of fighting it would thus be shared, taking away from the Damascus army the merit of the war on terrorism, which became widespread opinion after the reconquest of Palmyra. This would also avoid the effective reconquest of the Syrian Armed Forces of the mountainous regions of the north still out of government control.

If someone blows on the war between ISIS and other Islamist groups (perhaps indirectly helping both) it is difficult to prove, but everything suggests that the ensuing chaos will benefit those who do not want Assad and extend the time for national pacification.

The 7 May was in fact eliminated with a suicide attack by the ISIS the so-called "General Staff" New Syrian Army (source Washington Post), another pearl of the constellation of so-called "moderate rebels", set up in Jordan with US training and weapons. The militia would still control the al-Tanf border between Syria and Iraq. In the confusion someone scraps ...

In Syria there are about 60 acronyms of groups that call themselves rebels and to divide the Islamic fundamentalists from militias simply opposed to the government of Damascus is essentially impossible.

The war continues and despite the progress of the loyalists, weapons and supplies to integralist militias continue to arrive in Syrian territory both from the north and from the south. 

(Photo: SAA-with the BBC)