Syria, Palmyra soon free. When the war ends, Europe will have to pay for it

(To Giampiero Venturi)
24/03/16

Syria has disappeared from the headlines of major newspapers. The only past tissue is Obama's intention to continue to hit the Islamic State. We do not understand where, how and especially when, since so far actions and above all concrete results of the US-led coalition against the Caliphate, we have not seen them.

Nevertheless, the news from the front is clear. There are two important factors to highlight.

The first is the situation on the ground: about 6000 men from the Syrian Armed Forces (Tiger Forces, unit of 18a Armored Division and Fanti di Marina) supported by Liwa Suqour al-Sahra (i Falcons of the desert) and from Hezbollah they would be on the perimeter of the archaeological city. The Hotel Semiramis, a former luxurious tourist resort turned into a milestone for the ISIS militia at the entrance to the city, would have already been freed. 

According to military sources the commands of Hezbollah they would have made an explicit request to the Syrian General Staff to enter Palmyra first. The hatred of the Shiite militiamen against the Caliphate terrorists is proverbial. Presumably it will end in a massacre.

The data is tactical but also strategic, with a great resonance in political terms. The decision to bring in militants from the northern front, where they were engaged against the Turkmen affiliated with Al Nusra, it is not only linked to military capabilities and reliability on the battlefield, but it is above all a slap given by Damascus, from Iran (and from Moscow) to the US-led coalition. When Palmyra is freed, the international media will have to report it with some relief, given the importance of the city and the sensation that generated the destruction of the archaeological site in May 2015. World public opinion must take note of the decisive presence of Hezbollah, updating the list of good / bad or at least asking yourself questions.

The final assault would have already begun. The confirmation would come from the intensification of the Russian air raids, 20 only in the night between the 23 and the 24 March. 

The data allows us to analyze the second point of great geopolitical as well as military importance: the Russians are not at all gone, but have only changed strategy. The commander of the ground forces of Moscow in Syria, General Dvornikov, in an interview with Rossiyskaya Gazeta would confirm the presence of special forces on the ground, the continuous supply of materials in Damascus and the intensification of air operations. The Russians would participate directly in the tactical planning of the taking and reclamation of Palmyra given now for imminent.

In the meantime, fighters and helicopters would be storming together with the Syrian MIG and Sukhoi also installations within the Governorate of Raqqa, stronghold of the Caliphate.

From this it can be deduced that the Islamic State faces serious military difficulties, moving towards a slow but irreversible withdrawal from many Syrian regions.

There would be a start in the north, on the Aleppo front in this secondary moment for Damascus, and in the territory of Daraa in the southwest of Syria. Here ISIS (la Yarmouk Martyrs Brigade) would not target government troops but the positions of Free Syrian Army need Al Nusra, with whom there are no agreements in the region since the Caliphate was proclaimed in the 2014. This would facilitate the operations of the Syrian army whose 38a e 15a Brigade would have regained much territory in the surroundings of Daraa, giving a blow to the morale of the so-called rebel front. Permanently losing the region where the revolt against Assad began would be a mortal wound for the opposition to the government of Damascus.

The above gives us the opportunity to argue that the war in Syria, as repeatedly stated in this column, is in a new phase, in all probability the final one. Damascus will presumably end up regaining control of a large part of the national territory, with pockets of resistance and scattered free areas, the preserve of militias adjacent mainly to minorities (Turcomans on the Turkish border in particular).

Whether this will happen already within the 2016 depends on many factors. Certainly there is the transfer of many Jihadists towards other shores, Libya above all and the activation of terrorist cells already present in Europe. Brussels teaches.

In a year's time we will probably hear very little about Syria, but with the terrorists of the Islamic State (or whoever) we will have to deal with them much longer.

(Photo: SAA)