The French Defense Minister Le Drian, from Baghdad warns Westerners: Raqqa and Mosul, the two respective and self-proclaimed capitals of the Islamic State in Syrian and Iraqi territory, must fall by the end of the year.
The declaration does not add anything new to what has long been hiding in Damascus by virtue of the news from the fronts, but it sounds like a scuffle to the US-led coalition forces to proceed quickly and not be cut off from a game every day more difficult to manage.
As always, it is news from the battlefield that dictates the timing of future political implications. At least that is in Syria, where the progress of Assad's troops and their allies continues inexorably. One year after the withdrawal from Palmyra, perhaps the most critical point in the history of the Syrian war, the situation on the field has completely overturned.
To the north, according to Lebanese sources confirmed by Moscow, by the end of April a massive government offensive will start to surround Aleppo and cut off all supplies to the Islamist militias. It will be what everyone expects as the "mother of the battles" because it aims to pacify and stabilize the area around the second city of Syria, alter ego of Damascus, the economic and cultural crossroads of the country, with highly symbolic contents for the Syrians. The rumors would be confirmed by the re-deployment in the area of the assault forces Tigre, commanded by General Suheil Al Hassan and just back from Palmira's victory.
The prodromes would be underway in Al Eis, a town south of Aleppo controlled by Al Nusra but under attack by the militias Hezbollah supported by the Syrian artillery.
There is talk of about 12.000 men deployed for the time being, focused primarily on the Islamist strongholds of Anadan, Kafr Hamra, Hayyan and Haritan that if captured would close in a bag all the rebel forces active in the northern area of Aleppo. The Syrian General Staff is aware of how long and costly the game is in terms of human losses, but the general feeling is that the war on Islamists in Syria is just a matter of time.
Much also depends on the infighting between fundamentalist groups now declared even in the north of the country. Assad's troops, supported by the Russian forces also with the new arrivals Kamov-52, would be facilitated by a head-on collision between the federated militiamen of the Free Syrian Army (what remains of it), of Jhabat Al-Shamiya need Harakat Ahrar Al-Sham urged by the forces of ISIS in the area close to the Turkish border. There could therefore be a general retreat beyond the frontier of Islamist militias (from Aleppo to Kilis in Turkey it is less than 60 km) that would leave the forces of the Islamic State, in turn fleeing from the southern fronts, control. 
Just from the south, evidence of the massacres of Christians in the strategic city of Qaratayn, released by the troops of Damascus a few days ago. Obviously, on the assumption that the deaths weigh differently, the prominence of the European media at the news is practically nil.
What's happening then?
First of all, the realization that the ceasefire in Syria is essentially little more than a declaration of intent. The alarm clock played by Le Drian to the West then recalls that if you want to sit at the table of politics to participate in the future balance in the Middle East, it would be appropriate to move clearly and move quickly.
The French minister visiting Iraq, while speaking of the military progress of the Shiite government in Baghdad, makes explicit reference to Damascus where the West seems to have been cut off.
The alarm in Paris leaves no room for interpretation: while in Syria, despite its times and its difficulties, the road seems to be marked, what will happen in Iraq is all to be seen. The same alleged return of the former general to good Douri to nurture Sunni pride, although not very significant from a military and political point of view, is symptomatic of a great fluidity of the Iraqi landscape. The remains of the party Baath of Baghdad and the bad political management starting from 2003 will be the future thorn of the impossible pacification of the country.
The Caliphate will be forced to capitulate in the Middle East, it is not to be excluded just within the 2016. At that point everyone will deal with what he sowed.
(Photo: SAA)
