As predicted in previous online defense analyzes, we are witnessing an escalation of the situation in Syria. The phantom Munich accords (read article) have accelerated the unease of all the protagonists, especially those who see their projects in the Arab country vanish.
Let's start with the military situation.
The information overlaps, especially after the dozens of civilian deaths due to bombing on hospitals and schools in the areas between Idlib and Azaz in northern Syria. The attribution of raids is the subject of an exchange of accusations between Moscow and Ankara with involvement of the US-led coalition jets for the specific case of a presidium of Doctors without Borders. Establishing what propaganda is and what truth is extremely difficult.
For the choice of telling what we see, we simply say that according to International Law all armed military aircraft of countries not expressly invited by the Syrian legitimate government to fly over the air space of the Syrian Arab Republic, are in fact violating its sovereignty .
With regard to the situation on the ground, unrest is growing by virtue of the advance of government forces in strategic points around Aleppo. Precisely the town of Azaz, where 14 civilians would have died under the bombing, is at the center of a strategic dispute. It would be about 100 km of the border with Turkey still not under the full control of government forces. The maneuver of the Damascus troops would have the support of the Kurdish YPG militias from the east. The defeat for the terrorists (ISIS and Al Nusra) would be total when supplies from Turkey were completely blocked.
This is the explanation of the Turkish artillery barrage in the Syrian territory both to the north-east of Latakia and to the north-east of Aleppo against the Kurdish militias. The embarrassment of the US is total, trapped between blank checks turned to the Turks and the much-touted support for YPG.
Ankara justifies the attacks on the territory of a sovereign state as legitimate self-defense, but hides the fear of a débacle strategic. The turmoil that on this heading we highlight for many months, is the basis of an intense military activity at 360 °. Some sources (RAI teletext) claim that two of the Turkish fighters intercepted on the Aegean islands in Greek airspace were armed.
The military situation is evolving from hour to hour. We saw with our eyes columns of old Syrian T-55 on the highway heading north, towards the Aleppo front. The 4a The mechanized division of the Syrian army would, however, dispose of a recent supply of Russian T-90 and according to our local sources, the definitive reconquest of the second Syrian city would be scheduled for the month of April. For Palmyra on the Homs front the times are narrower. There is even talk of 3 weeks.
We would like to stress that the units of the Syrian Armed Forces fighting on the northern front (the one we have seen directly) include many Sunni and Christian Muslims. The figure would be in line with the strong cohesion of the majority of the population around the idea of the Syrian Arab nation and at the same time demonstrate the self-rule committed by the Gulf monarchies and Turkey in financing foreign jihad.
About the Gulf, just from the south meanwhile two important news come:
- in Qatar, Russia and Saudi Arabia they would have reached an agreement for the freezing of oil production of which the two countries are the main producers.
- on the border with Kuwait began "Northern Storm", an imposing Saudi military exercise involving around 20 countries among those of the "anti-terrorist cartel" (read article)
Both news fall within the same strategic framework. Saudi Arabia is a big voice but has no intention (nor real possibility) to engage in Syria without American exposure. Above all, he has no interest in compromising relations with Russia, who is also the moderator of the bad realities with Iran. However, the geopolitical return is enormous. In addition to the role of regional power disputed in Iran, Riyadh is becoming the global reference for all Sunnis in political terms as well.
Russia, which is not part of OPEC, the Arab-led cartel that essentially controls global oil production, through the agreement would ensure the reversal of the price of crude oil, its Achilles' heel. At the same time it would increase its charisma in the Middle East, skyrocketed after the intervention in September alongside Damascus.
So now political and military news only confirm the difficult position of Turkey, now largely compromised in Syria and throughout the area. We will see in the next hours.
(Photo: Andrea Cucco)
