Aleppo, in the general media torpor, was released. The use of the term "liberated" is omitted from almost all media in order to present the Syrian regular forces victory as a defeat for democracy and the generally accepted politically correct parameters.
In this regard, a great media lie is spreading, linking the humanitarian chaos and the suffering of the civilian population to the latest developments in the field. Regardless of how Assad's government is considered, it is good to specify an objective fact: the defeat of the jihadist rebels in Aleppo is in fact the end of a nightmare for the resident civilians, used for years as human shields for the militias. With the end of the war in the urban area, Aleppo can begin to imagine a future, which is exactly the opposite of what the Western media are saying right now.
In this regard, independent local sources confirm the beginning of the evacuation of thousands of people from the newly liberated districts of East Aleppo to receive assistance in better equipped areas even outside the Syrian borders (Tehran and Moscow for the most serious cases). The reclamation of unexploded ordnance and minefields has already been underway for days, while there is talk of restoring the first necessary infrastructures, erased by four years of devastation.
From a military point of view, the victory in Aleppo had been announced for months. It will undoubtedly allow Damascus to redeploy at least 20.000 personnel in the urban area so far. The same happened in the northeastern areas of Greater Damascus, in the conurbation of Ghouta in the region adjacent to the Golan, where the surrender agreements reached with the rebel militias made it possible to recover entire pockets out of control, freeing thousands of soldiers ready to be sent elsewhere.
The government of Damascus, short of recruits after six years of war, has decided to accept the militia surrender system in exchange for their transfer to other regions, to "group" the fronts and consolidate the areas of the country under its control . It is happening in these hours in Aleppo, where hundreds of jihadists surrender to be filtered north to the Turkish border.
From a political point of view, however, novelties coming from Aleppo are even more important. The defeat of the rebels represents a loss of negotiating power of the anti-Assad front, already severely affected by Hillary Clinton's defeat at the US presidencies. After losing the main international sponsor, the opposition to the Damascus government can no longer count on the results of the camp, now restricted to the region between Latakia and Aleppo, bordering the Turkish border.
If the new President Trump confirms with facts the agreement with Moscow for the management of the Syrian crisis, it is therefore likely that by mid-2017 Syria will present itself with this scenario:
- Assad will remain in the saddle, controlling most of the country, including all major cities. The reconstruction will begin to restore a minimum of normality in the areas now reclaimed by the war will begin immediately under Russian monopoly;
- the USA, in exchange for the abandonment of the so-called "moderate rebels", will defend Turkish interests in front of Damascus and Moscow, essential for restoring a good strategic relationship between Washington and Ankara. In essence, it will be a question of allowing Turkey to remain in Syrian territory to guarantee a security buffer that protects it from waves of refugees and above all from Kurdish incursions. The Turkmen militias will in all likelihood not be dismantled. Instead, the future of jihadist armed groups will depend on the weight of Washington and the bilateral agreements between Ankara and Moscow Jaish al-Islam, Jabhat al-Nusra, Ahrar al-Sham, essentially the whole cartel linked to Al Qaeda that has so far operated under the Turkish umbrella. Iran plays a crucial role in this game, clearly interested in defending Shiite interests in Syria and a fierce opponent of all Sunni fundamentalist groups active against Damascus. Future relations between Trump and Tehran will decide the game.
- The Syrian Kurds will have a certain autonomy but absolutely not comparable to that enjoyed by the Iraqi cousins. As already expressed in this column, Kurdish self-determination is of no interest to anyone: to Syria for issues of territorial integrity; in Ankara for fear of link with the PKK; Iran, involved in a reactivation of the Kurdish independentist armed struggle. Although with limited potential, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PJAK) and Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), respectively supported by the Turkish and Iraqi Kurds, have resumed firing in the 2016.
What has been said above summarizes the importance for Damascus (and Moscow) of tightening the times in the fight against the Syrian internal opposition represented by the "moderate rebels" and explains some apparently debatable military choices.
While it is true that the reconquest of Palmyra's ISIS remains a poor figure for Syrians and Russians, it is also true that the Islamic State is not a priority for anyone. Especially for Assad, who has every interest in presenting himself stronger internally but in difficulty with the Caliphate, recognized as the absolute evil by all on the international level.
In other words: a military victory in Aleppo, politically worth ten defeats in Palmyra ...
(photo: Al Jazeera)
