For some weeks, Defense Online has been monitoring developments on the northeastern front of Syria. In December, when Aleppo was finally re-conquered by government troops, the bulk of the attention shifted to the plains to the east of the second Syrian city, placing the Euphrates river basin as its center of gravity. In this area, efforts are concentrated on Syrian Democratic Forces, a Kurdish guide and backed by the USA; the Turks and the filoturiz militia of Shield of the Euphrates; Syrian troops backed by Russian air forces.
Just the advance of the Damascus troops in these hours is changing the balance on the field. The infamous Qawat Al-Nimr (Tiger Forces) commanded by General Al Hassan would have reached the shores of Lake Assad, cutting off any possibility for the Turks to proceed towards Raqqa along the west bank of the river, unless they engage in a large-scale battle with Syrians.
Lake Assad is an artificial basin born in 73 50 km from Raqqa after the construction of the strategic Tabqa dam. Troops from Damascus have reached the western shores of the lake for the first time since 2012 and are preparing to continue the offensive southwards. According to military sources, a bottle of water from the Euphrates was collected as a trophy and delivered to the Russian command of the Kuweires area base (30 km east of Aleppo), on which the coverage of all military maneuvers in recent days has depended.
Right at the center of the lake passes the administrative border between the Governorate of Aleppo and that of Raqqa. The advance of the Syrians, in addition to taking away from the Islamic State dozens of villages occupied for years, effectively erases it from the map of the Aleppo area. The last stop on this route is the stronghold of Dair Hafer, on which the next effort by Syrian troops is likely to concentrate.
The Syrian offensive basically redesigns the siege of Raqqa, the so-called capital of the Caliphate, on two parallel fronts: on the eastern shore the militia of the SDF helped by the Americans; on the west the Syrian army and its allies.
It remains to be seen how the Turks will behave who at great cost have succeeded in the past few weeks to occupy Al Bab, an important Islamist stronghold close to Aleppo. The 6 march in Antalya was held at the talks This was also discussed among the chiefs of staff of the United States, Russia and Turkey. Turkish Prime Minister Yildirim would have thundered against the US for their choice to continue to help Kurdish YPG militiamen, considered terrorists like the PKK from Ankara.
The Turks by President Erdogan have emphasized in the last few days the intention to march on Raqqa. It is likely that instead of a real intention it is a way to raise the price of Turkish stay in the northern part of Syria. The risk far from remote is that along the course of the Euphrates at Manbij the Turkish troops now cut off from the offensive to the south, concentrate on the true objective of Shield of the Euphrates: clashing with Kurdish forces. The American position in this context will be fundamental.
A possible escalation between Turks and YPG in Syrian territory would not vice versa be unpleasant in Damascus, which once closed the match with the Islamic State will have to settle the accounts both with the filoturiz militia (including Free Syrian Army), both with the Kurds of the Rojava.
In the coming hours it may be interesting to observe the positioning of the Tiger Forces, elite troops of the Syrian regular forces. Unlike the Republican Guard and other Alawite-majority departments and more generally loyal to President Assad, I am a symptom of an imminent attack. If the operations towards the south will be intensified, then it is likely that the Turks will shift their attention definitively to the area of Manbij.
The Caliphate is running out and the retreat on all fronts in Iraq and Syria is an unmistakable sign. The way in which it will fall, however, will be the beginnings of new arrangements that will concern the entire Middle East.
(photo: US DoD - SAAF)
