Iranian and old lace Iran and the "blacks" of 5 + 1

(To Andrea Pastore)

The Iran of the Ayatollahs has finally signed the agreement for the control of the nuclear, the next decade will be characterized by peace and tranquility for the Middle East.

How much heretic confidence in this openness and yet public opinion has perceived in this way the agreement in principle that 1 on April 2015 was signed in Lausanne by the 5 + 1 group (USA, Russia, China, Great Britain, France and Germany). nda).

The Iranian ruling class can not be considered foolish enough to have slipped into a "asshole" in the perhaps more unstable period for the whole area that goes from Arabia to Turkey, so it is likely that the reasoning made by Rohani and companions is much thinner and adherent to the realpolitik of troubled times.

For Tehran, the symmetrical military confrontation remains difficult to conduct, especially if the Americans continue with the creation of riots and caliphate functional to their interests in the area, Assad docet.

The Islamic world does not exist and if Iran exists it would be part of the most unlucky group, the Shiites, and lastly the asymmetric struggle conducted by the Pasdaran in half of Asia has shown to facilitate only the armed and funded armed groups that improve their own interests without a real return in terms of hegemony for the Iranian giant.

For all that said President Rohani needs to get out of the economic angle imposed with the embargo to re-launch the financial potential of about two billion barrels of oil a year (estimated capacity in terms of sales without embargo nda) would put the Iranian theocracy in a state of competitiveness such as to revive the price of oil and go to contain the sights of the opponents of all time, Saudi first and foremost Americans and English.

The rise in the price of crude oil would have a positive reverberation on Russia that would return to the game and would be able to contain the effects of its embargo and at the same time would give breath to the Assad regime that could rely more on friends of Tehran, in short a domino effect that it seems very strange that the Americans have not foreseen, unless you are working under track so that everything jumps through the air through who knows what a pretentious Persian spring or for reasons connected to actions of armed Shiite groups who often love playing their game on two tables for survival.

June is not so far away and the operational determinations of diplomatic agreements will give the exact size of each person's intentions.

Will the next decade be characterized by peace and tranquility for the Middle East?

(photo: IRNA)