Türkiye, the opposition wins: "anything can happen"

(To Gino Lanzara)

Even in Turkey, the administrative vote provides political and social indications regarding possible developments in the national projection. The problem for the opposition, CHP in the lead, is that the executive, strengthened by the 2023 electoral victory, remains under the leadership of the AKP, with the rising star Hakan Fidan in Foreign Affairs.

Erdogan has bet a lot, practically everything, on these consultations; as an experienced politician who victoriously jumped the springboard of the Istanbul municipality for the premiership and presidency, he did not neglect any attempt to capture goodwill, to the point of returning to bestowing gifts in front of the polls.

It wasn't enough: fluctuating economy, post-earthquake politics, security instability, have contributed to eroding consensus in the major urban centers, politically distant from the social reality of the Anatolian suburbs. 

The first analytical point therefore concerns the geographical evaluation of the geographical split of the electorate; the second concerns the aggressive return of a group that history had relegated to a complex Kemalist past.

Be careful though, the CHP has also undergone politically interesting evolutions by combining the original secular and state demands with new perspectives open to an unprecedented confessionalism yet capable of attracting votes.

Political analysis, while awaiting the 2028 elections, cannot ignore the attempt to understand what may have been the discriminating factors capable of hijacking the vote, i.e. whether preferences were conditioned by contingent aspects linked to an now elderly but surmountable leader by a rampant dolphin, or if elements of ideological novelty can be recognized. This is the crucial point on which to turn attention in the coming years, unless the social, economic and demographic weight of the major municipalities lost or not reconquered by the AKP causes the domino effect of a chain crisis. Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir have launched Ekrem Inamoglu, so distant from Erdogan's histrionics, towards the presidential elections, judicial investigations permitting.

In any case, since the events of Gezi Park, time, despite having passed, has left signs that have now resurfaced; everything changes, nothing changes? Don Fabrizio, the Prince of Salina, would have been delighted, especially in the face of a CHP on the shields and the rise of nationalist and ultra-religious groups which attest to a split in the traditionalist social groups so far faithful to Erdogan, who also pays his dues in the Kurdish south-east .

Erdogan changed Turkey; now Turkey, on the way forward, could continue to change on its own towards a destination to be carefully analyzed even for the leader Maximo concluded his discussion with "anything can happen".

Photo: presidency of the republic of Türkiye