November is approaching, ed Uncle Sam is preparing for the call of the American people that some want as a decision maker, in an imaginary referendum, of the end of Trumpism. The elections will not be more important: all the US presidential elections have been; to be able to get an idea of it, it is essential to abstract oneself from non-comparable national visions by entering into an often incomprehensible context for Europeans, however never so far from any idea of the Union.
America is (sometimes riotously) hegemonic and thalassocratic power, and must be imagined, over time, as a committed actor multidimensionally on more scenes, with substantially similar scripts but with different texts: more politically correct those obamians, coarser than those of Trump, interpreter of a populism that has been stigmatized but of which, often, the reasons have not been analyzed, refusing to accept the way in which The Donald, in 2016, embodied the most direct response to a globalization perceived as threatening; after all, if we consider the consequences of the recession of 2009, how can we not imagine the possibility of one showdown first internal and then in an international post-cold war environment? Perhaps it is not so unreal to say that the political knots are prior to Obama, and that Trump was the continuer, in another style, of Obama's strategy, aware of the impossibility of being present everywhere in contexts, such as that of the Middle East, where commitments do not lead to equal benefits, and where the void created by the absence of leadership does not forgive. Politics brings back past and perhaps not yet doctrines finished.
Andrew Jackson, conceptualizing the Destiny Manifest pushed America west and ignited the spark of New Deal di FD Roosevelt and New Frontier di JFK, a democrat defined in some essays as a unconscious conservative realistic and not dreamer in the Soviet containment started by Truman; all this without forgetting the continental hegemonic line of Monroe expanded both by Theodor Roosevelt in 1904 and from the extensive interpretations elaborated between the two wars of the last century.
How to frame the current ones possible interpreters? Realistically Jackson-like nationalists, or aimed at new interventions at Truman with its Marshall Plan? Interventionists like JFK, Berliner self-acquired but ready for military action on Cuba, or willing to multilaterality obamiana which, however, has not led to tangible results in a geopolitical context characterized by globalization, economic repercussions and inertia of the institutionalist system?
The judgment of Germano Doctors1 it is clear: there are 3 strategic guidelines connected to each other: the containment of China, at the center of the current branches also of the State of Missouri, due to the Covid pandemic19 and subject to initiatives attributable to economic war2 since perceived as the true antagonist; the downsizing of the EU to Franco-German traction; the confrontation with Islam, a small fire lit with the support at Arab Springs, which then became an uncontrollable stake3; many initiatives, few results.
So many fronts, so many keywords
Il black Swan of the pandemic brought to light gaps already highlighted with the exercise Crimson Contagion of 2019; the federal system has shown discrepancies between national action and the specific autonomies of the States: the President, whoever he is, has a power that, even if extended, cannot affect that of the individual Governors who have acted or are moved by the political background, both highlighting the different sentiment existing between the different geographical areas, between Midwest, California and New York. In summary: federal state but little Commitment, supported by the purchase of Treasury bills by foreign countries that, in dollars, support Washington's economy close to new quantitative easing.
In a recessive moment harder than that of 1929, with severe difficulties in ensuring health coverage and an irrational citizenship to arm themselves, frictions with the military establishment were added with the case of the removal of the Commander of the Roosevelt.
After September 11, the Americans discovered, for the second time, that their national territory could be the subject of attacks, although many have knowingly ignored the risks of contagion as in Florida for the spring celebrations or New Orleans for Shrove Tuesday, up to the emergencies of California, New York and Washington. In short, quarantines adapted to the political nature of the States, attentive to guaranteeing the freedom of religious assembly and lacking effective coordination with the federal government, as has already happened with theObamacare.
The Americans, by cultural inclination, intend to shape their destiny, an aspect that could affect the policy of the next Administration, necessarily destined to reopen all suspended files, starting with the Iranian JCPOA influenced by the elimination of General Soleimani and possible object of a strategy tit for tat4, passing through the backyard Venezuelan, penalized by the current oil market crisis, touching the Middle East with the substantial failure of theAgreement of the Century between Israelis and Palestinians and the recognition of Jewish sovereignty over the Golan, up to the Pacific coast, with a remodeling of alliances aimed at containing the rise of the Dragon.
Homeland of the polls, the USA offers daily fluid and changing panoramas which, in the last election rounds, however, have often failed to predict, given the dynamism of situations that up to the last condition; beyond the consolidated data, and which relate to the impact of the pandemic on low incomes and minorities, the prediction of electoral trends continues to be unreliable, even if it reveals interesting aspects. The chaos of this year, increased by a large number parterre of quick candidates both in presenting and withdrawing, could permanently affect the electoral system since, in November, perhaps, the majority of the Union could vote by mail, not excluding the possible disappearance, by 2024, of the huddle5given the Iowa debacle this year.
If it is true that for Trump, already touched by Russiagate, Ukrainegate and a Impeachments, pandemic management could turn into a loose cannon, it is equally true that many voters The have placed strong reservations about the age of the competitor Joe Biden. In the land where everything is New (Deal, Frontier), Democrats fail to express leadership that is not gerontocratic with an average of 73 years, unlike the 55 of Republicans; bipartisan color note: the generational factor has also fascinated Scorsese, who set his latest film, the Irishman, in a geriatric ward.
The Democratic party, conditioned like the Republican party by a campaign mainly on line which makes use of tools like the TrumpTalk that puts activists in touch with voters, at the moment, has a rift between a thirty year old base and a seventy year old management, reluctant to abandon the levers of power; Obama's deputy Biden himself, having cashed in the renunciation of the socialist Sanders, is having difficulty balancing the progressive electorate, divided between younger, social-democratic-oriented, and older, not so prone to traumatic changes. The risk, for the Democrats, could be that of facing a too marked generational change, unable to preserve the historical memory of the country, with a further imbalance caused by the search for consensus among the white swinging voters, or the undecided whites, against an insufficient search for support from the colored electorate.
What does Biden inherit with you: religion, strong empathy, and an unfailing accusation of sexual harassment? Biden, a practicing Catholic like JFK, will be forced to demonstrate political independence and judgment towards the Vatican, mediating on delicate and potentially contradictory social and political aspects, such as abortion and gay unions; not least, he was called upon to defend himself from the harassment charges brought against him by a former collaborator who, curiously, unlike what happened against Judge Kavanaugh appointed by Trump in 2018 to the Supreme Court, was unable to enjoy the support of the movement metoo.
Impossible at the moment to predict reliable data: while the little verifiable variables of independent candidates such as the former Republican Justin Amash are presented, the historical moment confronts candidates who play on fluctuating percentage changes to which they can oppose the Keep America Great of Trump, or a decades-long pro establishment political experience like that of Biden, with an electorate still largely undecided, split on instances deemed too radical as those supported by Sanders, concrete needs such as those of the generation Millennials, the most penalized, the vote of the ethnic minorities of the Latinos and more powerful lobbies, such as the Jewish one, traditionally democratic and accused of disloyalty by Trump, and that of the right-wing evangelicals, sensitive to a polarized foreign policy on Israel.
1 Professor at the Luiss Department of Political Sciences
2 duties
3 2012, assault on the US Consulate in Benghazi and murder of the US Ambassador Stevens
4 Effective in Game Theory to solve the repeated prisoner's dilemma problem. The English phrase has the meaning of equivalent retaliation, that is, of little repercussion in the face of a small provocation.
5 A term of Indian origin that indicates the meetings held by the leaders of a party to indicate, in some States, candidates for the Presidency. In other states, the primary system applies.
Photo: The White House / Army National Guard / joebiden.com
