If the war changes shape, Switzerland loses its neutrality

(To Andrea Pastore)

It is becoming increasingly clear that large-scale conflicts, those that we could define as global, are transforming their own line of action, or rather those who conceive and lead them have decided to act in a new way; however, the lesser amount of blood shed per unit of time must not deceive, since the deaths of the new scenarios have been estimated for the medium and long term.

If the bombs of Hiroshima and Nagasaki within a few seconds caused the holocaust of tens of thousands of individuals and the destruction of a society the economic facts, started with the speculative bubble linked to the US real estate market of 2007 and continued until the nowadays with two global economic crises in less than ten years, they are imposing a death mortgage on the head of about three billion individuals.

Without going too far in time, but remaining the facts of recent months we can see how a series of economic "broadsides" are having such disruptive consequences as to be counted among the worst weapons of mass destruction.

The collapse of the oil price is dragging behind at least three deadly effects at the global level, first of all the collapse of investments in hydrocarbons and alternative energies with consequent job losses and deflationary effects on the goods market, secondly the suffering of Russia as an oil and gas producing power and ultimately a likely increased instability in the Arab countries and in South America with losses in terms of earnings quantifiable beyond 100 billion. Dizzying figures, nuclear conflict damage.

If the superficial analysis of the facts leads us in the direction of a pan-Arab design financed by the rich Saudi sheikhs and by unwritten agreements with Whashington, the in-depth examination would immediately contradict us in the following terms: cost-benefit ratio relative to the decision to collapse the price of crude oil with particular reference to the quantity of oil stocks accumulated by the emirs and their monopolistic capacity linked to the fact that they are the suppliers of the "last mile" of hydrocarbons necessary for the entire global system to function, billionaire losses of which one is said connected to the collapse of barrel prices, an oil market promoted by ISIS and drugged by a downturn of 30% and finally the need for rivers of dollars to curb an internal revolutionary ferment that if not properly controlled would turn the emirates into a true and proper own battlefield between the few ultra rich and the too many "starved to death conflicts ".

Having dismissed the Arab question, one could read the economic facts of the last period as a tool to weaken Putin's Russia for the sole purpose of contributing to the post-Soviet vendettas of the former satellite countries of Moscow, recently embarked in NATO, but this too appears somewhat simplistic, however, the whim of a few extremely indebted bad payers risks collapsing a system of weights and counterweights that for over forty years has kept the world safe from nuclear conflict.

This is a new and unexpected situation: the economic chaos of Switzerland with Swiss headlines in free fall, the exchange rate constraint with the euro wiped out and a consequent strengthening of the franc with unpredictable effects in Europe where the the price of money is practically zero, in short even the neutral Switzerland is under attack and with it most likely the capital fleeing from Russia and Ukraine, as well as those coming from the lack of investments on drilling in the North Sea.

Everything seems extremely complex to say that it is governed by a shrewd direction, it seems that the machine of international relations is self-destructing due to the introduction of too many variables, as if we had a mathematical system with a number of unknowns superior to the equations necessary to come at the head of the problem and moreover none of the actors in question seems willing to take note of it.

It looks like a zero-sum game where everyone puts into play everything and the opposite of everything, probably the time of the fall-out is next, or as Sun Tzu said: "Order and disorder are a matter of organization." Probably someone is organizing.