The importance of being Bibi

The Israeli election was marked by several elements that contributed to making it unique. First of all, it was the 5th consultation in 43 months, which highlighted an accentuated internal instability and a political fragmentation that at a social level has facilitated, in the last two years, a dispersion of votes such as to make it impossible to form an executive lasting. The very high percentage of voters alone suggested, as if it were an exit poll, a shift in the political balance to the right. After all, the handover between the longest-lived Israeli prime minister and any successor who succeeded in taking over, could only bear the stigmata of a constant and hateful comparison: we should remember it by remembering the famous and trite: when he was there ... Mind you, this is a fatal political error, but it was equally so to base the new line only on the political destruction of the old but certainly not domo Benjamin, playing on judicial matters that, probably, will not see an end for a long time yet and that have not certainly worn out his drive for power.

Another mistake of the outgoing government was that it wanted to expand its base by co-opting all the political souls in the Israeli arena; to the test of the facts, the government of national solidarity in a Jerusalem style it has imploded, unable to reconcile too complex and above all different requests. Realistically, as is the case with the ghostbusters, crossing flows is dangerous, and above all useless.

King Bibi speaks fluent English, graduated from MIT in Boston and studied at Harward (although he did not complete the course of studies), is a shrewd politician who has been able to adapt, like the shape of water in a jar, using checks and balances in its policies, perhaps conceding tactical defeats but winning strategic victories, as happened with the Abrahamic Agreements in which it facilitated the establishment of profitable diplomatic relations with important Arab political subjects, at the modest price of suspending the concession of sovereignty to the West Bank settlements.

Netanyahu, unmatched political animal, at the age of 73 he wins a considerable stake, but it would be wrong to think that, in turn, he will not have to pay a high price for this. If it is true that the majority on the right is overwhelming, it is equally true that there is no political and above all secular monocolor, but a cartel of movements and parties which, based on a particularly heartfelt religious orthodoxy, leave the solution to the interpretation of the transcendent. of too earthly problems¹, such as those represented by the management of the West Bank settlements. Suffice it for all to consider Itamar Ben Gvir's political cursus², an inflamed and thick movementist who did not conceal his intent to obtain a fundamental department, that of Public Security, leaving Defense to his ally Bezalel Smotrich; to underline his direct, clear style, his messages without uncertainties: who can say that he himself does not stolen votes to the left of Meretz?

But how could Bibi get out now?

Perhaps addressing the head of the National Unity Party Benny Gantz who, however, has repeatedly repeated that he does not want to share anything with the Likud even though he is not always in tune with Lapid. Beyond sharing the political conduct in progress, it must also be said that, paradoxically, the Palestinians were among the most effective supporters of Likud; not offering negotiating sides to a government torn by the need to ensure internal security while avoiding further conflicts, it was a no sense of rare myopia.

Since it is not intended to deprive anyone of its merit, it is also appropriate to recall the performances of Khomeinist Iran, leaning towards a problematic but nevertheless threatening nuclear projection, and of Hezbollah, the Persian longa manus in Lebanon. Given Palestinian politics, looking back, one gets the impression that history has taught very little, and that one unfortunate series of tragic events has relocated the Palestinian people to a side which, if not quite wrong, is certainly not paying much.

One of the most easily appreciated results of this policy consists in the third place obtained by the grouping formed by the Jewish Power and the Religious Zionist Party, teams that, until last week, could count on a handful of parliamentarians.

Also to be added is the bad performance of the Arab parties, on which disillusions and divisions are weighed that have thwarted the participation of the Arab-Israelis, 20% of the population: it is useless and unproductive to compete under different flags when success can only be achieved with programmatic unit.

If the Arab parties cry, the left does not laugh; Labor, a nostalgic former first party, only got 4 seats, while Meretz did not cross the threshold. A debacle, especially in light of the first statements made by some leaders of Ben Gvir's party that both the left opposition and the Arabs should continue to be worried about. The right has attracted voters and suffrages; Yesh Atid of the outgoing premier Lapid, despite having obtained the best result of his short history, has stolen votes from the left to attract them to a more moderate area.

The reactions to the electoral outcome from abroad were many, above all varied; Beyond the generic congratulations of the pragmatic, the irritation of the American dem policy stands out which, perhaps, as in many other situations, would have done well to move differently in unsuspected times, given that it is in turn under the slap of the internal elections by mid-term.

While wanting to keep the blazon of political and moral conviction high, openly boycotting a possible future Israeli minister could lead to a further weakening of the future positions of Washington, already forced during the summer to a humiliating Middle Eastern tour de force in an attempt to induce allies now hesitating to reshape their oil production.

If the vote provided a clear signal, however, the perplexities in the international arena have not disappeared, even in light of the fact that the electoral result has brought an apparently stable majority to the fore (perhaps this is what leads to ambassadors).

Netanyahu has confirmed himself as a polarizing element in a country that, on the table, has various issues to be defined while maintaining an indispensable continuity: relations with Egypt and Jordan, relations deriving from the signing of the Abrahamic Agreements that cannot fail to be affected by the mood of the squares Arabs where solicited, the posture to be maintained with the reluctant American ally, the renewed liaisons with Ankara and the energetic fault points with Lebanon.