Secondo Fedor Tyutchev1 "Russia cannot be understood with the mind, nor is it measured by the common yardstick: Russia is made in its own way, you can only believe in it. ”; a poetic vision, it Slavic spirit and passionate about Tchaikovsky, the tile of a much wider mosaic. In 1984, Orwell's Eurasia indicated a superpower which included Europe, except England, and crossed northern Asia to the Bering Strait; Putin's geopolitics goes beyond fantasy and goes in the opposite direction to the Stalinist lines:E looks to the Mediterranean in Libya and Turkey; in the Middle East to Syria where it has preserved the bases of Tartus, Humaymin and Latakia; in Central Asia and the Far East in cohabitation with Beijing, a coexistence supported by careful political compensation within the UN and characterized by the foundation of economic organizations2 capable of creating valid alternatives to western seductions in the East, from negotiating niches in the SCO3aimed at attracting powers such as Iran, Japan and India. However, Russia knows limits that prohibit expansive policies to impose others that see it as which trait d'union between Central Asia and Europe.
We will use 8 Keywords, to give summary points and reach logical conclusions.
1: General lines of foreign policy. It Kenna4 had attended the speech given by Putin in 2016 to Valdai Club, would follow up on his long telegram. Putin, stigmatizing Western policies, has ironized on the Obamian hegemonic ones ( "What is America? A Banana Republic or a Great Power? "), blaming the technocratic elites for both depriving the concept of sovereignty from meaning and ignoring social ailments. Putin, his pro dacia, has left out his courtyard, but certainly western politics has facilitated the task, given the results of the Syro-Libyan chaos. Russia must conduct an independent foreign policy, sipping its resources: supporting Soviet manner too many fronts is a strategic error and economic suicide. It is therefore essential to maintain non-conflicting relationships while maintaining the balance of Yalta and Potsdam, not giving up ground in the UN, and pursuing alternative strategies to the American one, too inclined to the creation of coalition of willings, and who has propitiated the internal fractures with Gorbachev and Yeltsin; it is therefore better to wait for Washington's errors, focus on the liveentente cordial with Maduro.
2: Country. Defender of sovereignty, Putin kept history and nationalism alive; only the pandemic managed to prevent the anniversary of the victory over Germany, still mindful of the humiliation inflicted with the bow of the Nazi banners in front of Lenin's Mausoleum. Now that the intelligentsia begins to suffer from a lack of motivation, Victory Day contrasts Western (especially Polish) revisionism on the consequences of the Molotov - Ribbentrop Pact, and reawakens the sense of encirclement with a vertical construction of power and with a progressive revaluation of the figure of Stalin, not yet rehabilitated, but which embodies a Russian glory, not a Leninist Marxist, according to the rhetoric used in Crimea and Belarus.
3: Constitution. is asked for strong man; the next referendum, if approved, will introduce two significant reforms: the overall limit of two presidential terms, which will allow Putin to reapply until 2036, and the pre-eminence of national law over international law, aimed at avoiding external interference. To remember the recent revisitation of the law on citizenship, a set of measures aimed at countering the demographic decline and the impoverishment of the labor market: a possible stratified society, with fringes favorable to a State marked by a centrally managed democracy.
4: Economy and Pensions. The Russian production model, based on energy exports has not found diversification, and the banking sector is still unprepared to contain the recessionary phases, exacerbated by cuts in investments and penalized by western sanctions, aimed at affecting the energy, defense and finance. The Kremlin defends economic sovereignty by trying to mitigate foreign interdependence, and with planning Soviet of public works worth 400 billion dollars to be completed in 2024 which raises many doubts, given the high interest rates applied by the Central Bank which do not favor private investments. The slowdown in global demand led to the collapse in the price of crude oil, further penalized by the decision of Igor Sechin, CEO of Rosneft, to break the pact with the Saudis (who continued to produce and continue their diversification process) and l 'Opec, originally aimed at hitting him shale oil USA. The pension problem is topical, with the raising of the threshold for men at 65 (except the FFAA) and which has led to mass mobilizations. The relationship between workers and pensioners, unbalanced towards the latter, leads to a drop in contributions; if it is true that the life expectancy for a man is around 67 years, the pension provision would not extend for over 2 years.
5: China and USA. China and Russia pursue their own interests, often finding themselves in friendly disagreement, so much so that a military alliance does not seem conceivable; therefore, there remains economic cooperation, as in the Arctic, in which climate change has opened otherwise inaccessible trade routes, in an area strategically relevant for nuclear deterrence and for shorter missile trajectories in case of conflict. The gap between economic and technological resources sharpens the perception of a Russian subalternity compared to a Dragon who knows that there are no points of possible breakage, given that Trump's policy with his America first, does not provide Putin with any useful exit strategies.
6: COVID and Propaganda: The economic situation has exacerbated the recession and the frictions with oligarchs and Governors called to make up for state shortcomings. As far as propaganda is concerned, even if it may seem singular that Moscow launches a disinformative campaign just when it is trying to acquire a more seductive appeal with its humanitarian aid, it cannot be excluded that the Bear has lost the fur but not the vice to widen fault lines, implementing a chaos strategy that uses asymmetric methods, as already happened in Donbas and Syria: ".. the information war is a form of political power and a geopolitical tool that allows a high level of manipulation and influence "5.
7: Doctrines. Russian doctrine developed strategies nonlinear, aimed at defending the Federation according to the principle that politics, during the war, continues to make use of military means, even nuclear ones, useful to compensate for conventional deficiencies; the Marina itself, with the exception of underwater weapons, seems destined for a dangerous involution for surface vehicles; in this respect, the relationship with Turkey assumes particular importance, which is useful for guaranteeing access to the Dardanelles. There is no certainty that the so-called Gerasimov doctrine6 is the result of an original birth, but there is no doubt that strategic and military aspects have been the subject of a more sophisticated political approach, which aims to surprise and divide the enemy's alliances, masking the intentions, striking by surprise and exploiting the vulnerability; a review of Józef Piłsudski's Prometheus strategy7. More than a single doctrine it seems to be able to speak of an effective military political union, where Foreign Minister Lavrov takes care of the strategic vision, and Gerasimov - skillfully - a difficult and extensive tactical framework.
8: Matryoshka. Amarus in the end, Italy. The current situation recalls the Renaissance era, with the peninsula crossed by militias; according to a consolidated hoops, there are factions pro China, opposed to others that, looking at Russia, wink at the Atlantic partners, with France observer interested. The elusive factor lies in the political evaluation of the countries: the Sino-Russian system is characterized by an impalpable democratic confrontation, with leaders who have in fact prolonged indefinitely their power. The help Sino Russian in what form of compensation will it materialize? What can be the real currency and Russian GDP impact in an environment like the western one? What competitiveness can it ensure? Russia, a multi-ethnic Federation that cannot be managed except centrally, has all the interest in maintaining an ongoing stalemate that capitalizes on the strategic resources available to it and which, for the moment, allow it to sit in the highest seats.
1 Russian writer and poet
2 Eurasian Economic Union
3 Shanghai Cooperation Organization
4 George Kennan, American diplomat
5 Domenico Frascà - Collaborator of the Center for Cyber Security and International Relations Studies (CCSIRS)
6 January Valerij Vasil'evič Gerasimov, chief of general staff.
7 It leveraged Russian vulnerabilities by creating territorial divisions and conflicts by supporting potentially destructive independence movements.
Photo: Kremlin / MoD Russian Fed
