May 9 has arrived: analysis on the state and prospects of the war

(To David Rossi)

Those who expected that Putin would, at the very least, be able to seriously announce the neutralization of the regiment to the Russians Azov and the total submission of the city of Mariupol was disappointed: in today's press conference, the resisters, barricaded in the impenetrable Azovstal fortress (see article) have made fun of those who, one day and the next as well, gave them up for dead, announcing the estimate of 2.500 dead Russian soldiers - uselessly, it is appropriate to say - to try to annihilate them.

But it is not this appearance of the Ukrainian resisters, safe and sound, the only alarm bell for Putin, on the day that, according to the initial plans, should have glorified the celebration of the definitive defeat of the "anti-Russia" of Kiev and the creation of the "New Russia" in south-central Ukraine.

Let us give a quick summary of the reasons for the alarm for the Kremlin.

  • A Ukrainian counter-offensive is underway, very effective albeit to the minimum terms in terms of men and means employed, which started about a week ago from the parts of Kharkiv, which in the last two days has seen clashes even in the vicinity of Izyum, in the Zaporizia oblast, still in the parts of Kherson and, last but not least, on Snake Island, where the Russian military and naval base has been annihilated to say the least. We have never had confirmation - even if only unofficial - of a Ukrainian attack on the ship "Admiral Makarov": consequently, it is believed that there was a media short circuit, with the attacks in the waters of southwestern Ukraine taken for something else. But it is too early to say the last word, also because the Kremlin, which also denied the attack, he did not show any footage of the ship and its current state.

  • There has been no significant advancement of Russian forces in recent days: just today the Ukrainians left the village of Popasna to occupy better defensible positions, the Russians found themselves under the blows of Kiev's artillery at the very moment they tried to gain the position. The paradox is that the territories recovered from Kiev in the last two weeks exceed those occupied by the Russians at the beginning of the "great offensive" (which is not great: see article) on 11 April.

  • The Kiev Air Force proved to be anything but beaten: while employing small numbers (at most 2-4 aircraft), it was capable of inflicting significant damage to fixed and moving Russian ground forces, once again demonstrating the absence of effective Russian air superiority and confirming that well-trained pilots , with thousands of hours of flight, they can easily get the better of enemies rich in means but poor in training. Let's not forget also that Westerners are passing on spare parts to Ukrainians and, probably, entire ex-Soviet planes as well.

  • The umpteenth Maskirovka Russian - namely the charade of military maneuvers in Belarus and the "threat" by the 1.300 (!!!) Russian soldiers in Transnistria - Western satellites and intelligence are not alerting them: it is therefore probable that the attempt to "distract" Ukrainian troops from the hottest fronts has failed.

  • The emergence of more and more signs of actions of partisan struggle and sabotage, in Russian territory, behind the daily explosions in the Russian oblasts along the border with Ukraine: it is probably a home front in which Ukrainian elements of origin close to the interests of the Motherland, Russian opponents of the Putin dictatorship, Russians and foreigners of the reserve who do not wish to become cannon fodder for the Kremlin and Russians of the security apparatuses in perennial struggle with each other. The result is that the supply and logistics chain goes to pieces.

  • The confirmations about the difficulty of finding spare parts and “precious” components for weapon and surveillance systems: for example, the increasingly frequent use of equipment from the interior and emergency ministries, as well as the police forces, testifies to the extreme difficulty of producing for the military industry. If before the war Russia's dependence on Taiwan and South Korea for i chip was already a problem and Russia was fighting for its supplies, now Moscow is cut off from modern semiconductors as it does not have its own advanced industry and can only import chip low-end from China. However, as analyst Michael Orme puts it, "High-end chips are also vital for today's advanced weapon systems". Amen.

  • The constant problem of the very low morale of the troops and the need to expose senior officers to lead soldiers incapable of taking the initiative emerges from many intercepted conversations: the war only served to demonstrate that the king - the Russian infantry - is naked and that, apart from the nuclear arsenal, Russia has nothing that justifies his self-perception of great global power.

  • Finally, there remains the problem of the poor accuracy of artillery and especially of missiles, now more effectively shot down by Ukrainian anti-missile systems. The "air terror" campaign was as ferocious as it was useless: it is possible that it did not bring any appreciable strategic advantage and only served, as if the massacres in Kiev and Mariupol were not enough, to throw a shame on the Russian forces that did not they will be able to take off for centuries.

Do not think that all this means that Russia, weakened militarily, will be induced to seek a serious and acceptable diplomatic solution for the attacker and the aggressor: the negotiated solution exists only in the minds of optimists at all costs.

Decisions in Moscow are made only on the basis of resentment: as soon as the "tsar" feels threatened, rejected or offended, he acts accordingly, certain that Russia never loses, it is sacred and immortal.

This is a war waged for completely irrational reasons, illogically, often directed by terrified or enslaved people, and can escalate into an even more devastating conflict, regardless of whether the "tsar" wins or loses. It is enough that he "feels" that he must defend Russia.

Photo: MOD Russian Federation