Next week the two chambers and the representatives of the regions will meet in the hemicycle of the Montecitorio palace to elect not a notary, but a personality, who will carry the title of President of the Republic, with powers almost - and in some respects even more - vast powers than its American, French and Russian almost counterparts.
Almost the election of a King ...
Meanwhile, our president is elected for seven years, while in Washington, Paris and Moscow each term lasts between four and five years. Putin had to elbow to be re-elected more than twice, while in theory the tenant of the Quirinale could be re-elected without limits. If this has never happened, except in the case of Giorgio Napolitano in 2013, it is for political expediency, not for a constitutional issue.
Then, the Italian head of state can dissolve the Chambers (or even one of them), call new elections and set the first meeting of the Parliament. All this can happen with the sole condition of "hearing" the presidents of the two assemblies. Ask Biden if he can dissolve the Congress or the presidents-notaries of Germany and Austria if they can dissolve the chambers, perhaps by empire. The dissolution of parliament is a political act, which our constituents have left in the hands of the President of the Republic, never of the very fragile Prime Minister, an earthenware vase in the midst of the iron vessels of politics.
As already and perhaps even more so than the King in the Albertine Statute, the president authorizes the presentation to the Chambers of bills initiated by the Government, promulgates the laws and issues the decrees having the force of law and regulations, calls the popular referendum, appoints the ministers - on the advice of a prime minister who appears to us more and more like a loser -, appoints, in the cases indicated by law, state officials, accredits and receives diplomatic representatives, ratifies international treaties, prior, when necessary, the authorization of the Chambers, has the command of the Armed Forces, presides over the Supreme Defense Council established according to the law, declares a state of war on the condition, at least this limiting, that it has been approved by the Chambers and chairs the High Council of the Judiciary. In short, the legislative power, the executive and judicial power, diplomacy, the upper quarters of the public administration and the armed forces cannot strike a nail if the president is not in favor.
It is to be imagined that the Russian Putin, the Egyptian Al-Sisi and the Turkish Erdogan are envious of the thought of how many functions and powers their Italian counterpart has, being also not responsible - that is, not attributable - for the acts. carried out in the exercise of his functions, except for the hypothesis of "high treason or an attack on the Constitution" and with the competent ministers from time to time forced to assume the burden but not the honor with the countersignature.
The strong man in power ...
That no one has yet asked the president to return to the "letter" of the Constitution, that is to say to the reality of a strong president and not a "notary" at all, is not really true. During the crucial passages of republican history, in 1960, 1992-93, 1995, 2011 and more recently in 2021, it was up to the head of state to take charge of the appointment of a "technical" or "president" government. The fact that most of the times they have been chosen politicians at the end of their career speaks volumes about the fear that reigns in the political world of choosing a "strong" president, who does not accept the logic of the parties or power groups present in Parliament. Parliament, let us remember, which remains in office for five years, that is to say less than the head of state.
Choose the candidate you prefer ...
That said, I asked collaborators to Online Defense to try to understand how the "eligible candidates" for the Presidency of the Republic are positioned with respect to the issues that interest us, namely the military world, the Armed Forces, geopolitics and national relations. In short, how much they can guarantee to be valid interpreters and defenders of Italy's national interest. A rather lengthy analysis has emerged, because it concerns 12 men and 8 women among those that i rumor - and the logic - indicate as possible successors of Sergio Mattarella. If you don't want to waste time with this or that, you can search for the ones that interest you the most as they are in alphabetical order.
Giuliano Amato, the last train for power ...
According to his friend Silviano Drago, despite the fact that we all still remember the forced levy of 6 per thousand on national savings, Amato is an evergreen candidate; already proposed - and celebrated - in the last round of elections, given the registry is at its last chance. Wit, academic preparation, intelligence, which have determined the injury to Leonardo Sciascia of Doctor Sottile, and which would allow him to cultivate certain and profitable institutional relationships both with the Defense, at the time touched in the availability by his observations as head of the financial department, both at the European and Atlanticist international level, seem to have paved, for the umpteenth time, access to what was once the Vatican palace; but the age factor, for an 83-year-old remains an obstacle to be considered, unless you consider his experience as a bridge and guarantee to be completed after the 2023 political elections.
Silvio Berlusconi, you already know everything about him (or at least you believe)
Little to say about a politician on whom rivers of ink have been spilled: he is at the last chance. After this train, another one may not pass for a prestigious post in the service of the country. A convinced Atlantist, but with excellent offices with Putin, he cultivated friendly relations with the main international leaders in the years in power between 2001 and 2011. After his expulsion from Parliament in application of the controversial Severino Law, he seemed to have carved out a role of leader left, away from the button room.
Rosaria "Rosy" Bindi, the most loved by the 5 Stars (and this is enough for you)
Progressive Catholic, our Andrea Forte - and not only him - sees it as divisive and as a flag, as a counter-challenge to the divisive Berlusconi. A Europeanist yes (He starts his career in Brussels), but he believes that sovereignty has been helped precisely by a technocratic Euro-egoism. He believes that national unity, peace and democracies do not exist in nature, they must be built and defended. The armed forces are one of the tools that participate in these objectives, within an Atlantic framework.
Emma Bonino, beyond the maximum time (and too questionable)
Let's go back to hearing Silviano Drago: “The radical Bonino has declared her unwillingness to the quirinal election despite the support provided by Carlo Calenda who exalts her undisputed international and institutional competence. His questionable stances on the occasion of the affair involving the fusiliers of Marina La Torre and Girone should be remembered. Let me be clear, we certainly cannot and must not condemn coherence, a quality that is very lacking today, but precisely because of a sort of political retaliation, we cannot forget everything by closing a door, however precious and historiated it may be quirinally.
Our Tiziano Ciocchetti talks about it for another aspect. n with regard to issues relating to Defense and Geopolitics, Bonino, ever since she was appointed European Commissioner in 1995, denounced the impotence of the European Union (as well as the uselessness of the UN) in the face of "ethnic cleansing", undertaken by the Serbs (and not only) in the war of the former Yugoslavia. Bonino is a staunch European and Atlanticist. She is also a strong supporter of the creation of a "European Army". From 28 April 2013 to 22 February 2014 he held the position of Minister for Foreign Affairs of the Letta Government, in this capacity he supported the naval operation Mare Nostrum aimed at rescuing migrants at sea.
Letizia Maria Brichetto Arnaboldi, widow Moratti, if you are looking for a center-right woman (who is also a countess)
According to Andrea Forte, this is the most likely female plan b of the center-right. His election would leave the critical box of Lombard health uncovered in the midst of a pandemic. As an entrepreneur and trainer of young African entrepreneurs, she is convinced that soft power can contribute to the stabilization of critical areas for Italy. It considers the logistical capabilities of the armed forces the added value which made the initially fragile Lombard vaccination campaign possible.
Marta Maria Carla Cartabia, a mystery hidden in an enigma
Of his thought on Defense and geopolitics, we know less than nothing. Tiziano Ciocchetti reminds us that he is of Catholic orientation and it is very likely that his vision of international relations also follows the doctrine of Communion and Liberation (great attention to missionary reality). Point.
Maria Elisabetta Alberti Casellati, Berlusconi in female guise
Andrea Forte writes that the president of the Senate has always been with Berlusconi and could be an alternative proposal. However, she is more Berlusconi than Berlusconi, therefore divisive. He defines himself as pro-European, not out of breath, but on condition that the EU multiplies Italy's insufficient forces. Only in this case would it be in favor of European strategic autonomy. In favor of a military development with a wide projection, even in space, where he believes that the real future geopolitical challenge will play out.
Pier Ferdinando Casini, a man for all seasons (or a heated soup?)
Here is Silviano Drago again, talking to us about the one who for forty years has been the enfant prodige of the center and of all the centers, a man who has made a profession of politics in Weber way, has followed a cursus honorum which, despite the unwritten rules , undoubtedly qualifies him for the presidential candidacy. The proximity to the institution brings him close to both the defense and the Atlantic and pro-European overtures. However, according to Tiziano Ciocchetti, there are no external statements about the defense sector and geopolitics. A fervent pro-European and pro-Atlanticist, Casini held the position of President of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the Senate from 7 May 2013 to 27 September 2017.
Giuseppe Conte, that of the military to talk about peace in the rear
The head of the Military World of Online Defense, Tiziano Ciocchetti, talks about it in very realistic terms. In the field of international relations we must highlight the dichotomies between the Conte I and Conte II governments. In the first executive, the presence of the League, saw a foreign policy of the executive close to Russia. While in the second, with the presence of the PD, Conte implemented relations with China. Furthermore, despite a facade Europeanism, Conte entered into agreements with individual European countries. For example, in February 2020 in Naples, in a bilateral meeting with the French President Macron, he had granted the sending of a contingent of special forces with air assets to Mali (operation Takuba), subsequently downsized by the IOC. In the field of Defense, Conte has always followed the wavy line of the 5 Star Movement. His declaration of not appearing 5 rifles and to send the soldiers who were left without "in the rear to talk about peace" is emblematic.
Mario Draghi, for those who want to play it safe (or have little imagination)
According to Andrea Forte, the current prime minister is the favorite. The main difficulty is to ensure continuity of government and legislature, in the event of a passage to the Quirinale. A convinced Atlantist, he hollowed out the 2019 approach to China, using the Golden Power against Chinese acquisitions. It tries to take European money, without it helping a German hegemony in "American" Europe. He is aware of the Turkish rivalry, and has tried to contain it, but without success. He knows that the containment of China implies less centrality of Europe, which is why he deems strategic autonomy necessary, but complementary to NATO. To this end, the military budget is increasing.
According to Tiziano Ciocchetti, Draghi is perfectly in line with the foreign policies of the European Union. On 6 April 2021 he went to Libya, where he met with Prime Minister (in pectore) Abdul Hamid Mohammed Dbeibeh. The two heads of government talked about cooperation in the energy and infrastructural fields, as well as immigration and the management of migratory flows in the Mediterranean. The trip was described as an attempt to reduce Turkish and Egyptian influences on Libya in the aftermath of the civil war. A few days after the first official visit, in fact, during a press conference, Draghi harshly criticized the policy of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, calling him a dictator. Its executive expects, in the coming years, an increase in military spending thanks to funds from the Recovery Plan.
Anna Finocchiaro, or the lost trains do not return (ask Renzi)
The good Silviano Drago is not outspoken. “Magistrate on loan to politics, Dr. Finocchiaro left the gown more than 30 years ago, after having exercised her duties for no more than six years. In 2018, serving the renewal policy inaugurated by Matteo Renzi, she is not re-nominated also due to the effect of photographs which, perhaps inappropriately, portray her while she is shopping with two escort agents. To this is added the subsequent decision of Minister Bonafede who, having assumed the post, decides not to make use of the work of Dr. Finocchiaro, instead employed by her predecessor Andrea Orlando. The epilogue is taken for granted, and the request for retirement sent to the CSM starts. No particular experiences emerge that lead Anna Finocchiaro into contact, for eminently operational and political aspects, with the Defense, except for its approach to the reorganization of the top management of Via XX Settembre, which fleetingly saw her, some time ago, as a possible Secretary National Defense in a doubled version compared to the current one, which more organically associates the position of National Director of Armaments ".
Andrea Forte also dwells on her: a flag candidate, from the center-left, but does not mind the center-right. Pacifist, he signs against the intervention in Kosovo, but humanitarianly says he is in favor of the one in Libya in 2011, which has deconstructed our area of fundamental interest. Ergo has no strategic knowledge. As a pacifist he is in favor of greater control of civilians in the armed forces.
Dario Franceschini, dreaming of Chigi or Quirinale (also for 2029)
Andrea Forte goes straight to the point: more than quirinabile, he is chigabile, being considered an anti-Draghi, as a politician, against the dominance of the technicians. With Draghi al Colle, it could be the point of failure to survive the legislature. He is a multilateralist without analytical skills, that is, he is convinced that others are in our interest… as in Libya. He has no real understanding of the military world. The recent agreement on the promotion of Italian military museums with Minister Guerini is only the weaving of a political bond.
A cultured and intelligent politician, according to Silviano Drago, recent openings to the military world include that made in favor of the enhancement of military museums. Of the lawyer Franceschini, at the moment it is noted that he did his utmost for the stay of the Draghi executive, the good relations with China and a less extreme Atlanticism than that of the current Prime Minister.
Franco Frattini, if experience is useful (and a man is still fine)
In two Berlusconi-led executives, according to Tiziano Ciocchetti, he held the role of Minister of Foreign Affairs. Although opposed to the intervention in Libya in 2011, it has always conducted a pro-American and NATO foreign policy. In 2003 he supported the US invasion of Iraq, calling it a legitimate intervention, albeit without a UN resolution.
Paolo Gentiloni Silveri, a count at the Quirinale (i.e. the center-left Draghi)
Finally, here is one that you can write a lot about in the geopolitical and military fields! Tiziano Ciocchetti tells us about it. As Minister of Foreign Affairs (position held from 31 October 2014 to 12 December 2016 in the Renzi government) he issued a bellicose declaration against the Islamic state, after it had occupied the city of Sirte, in Libya, in 2014. In Libya Gentiloni he was among the main sponsors of Fayez al-Sarraj as national conciliation premier, albeit with periodic openings to the strongman of Benghazi, Khalifa Haftar, supported by Egypt. The support of the Libyan forces' struggle against the Islamic state has led them to define him as "minister of crusader Italy." His position on Syria has remained more nuanced and in line with European partners. During his mandate as minister of foreign countries, the values relating to arms export licenses have more than tripled, going from less than 2,9 billion euros in 2014 to over 8,2 billion euros in 2015, a record figure since the post-war period. Paolo Gentiloni, with the Minister of Defense Roberta Pinotti, without consulting deputies, senators or mentioning it in Parliament, signs the Treaty of Caen with France (for which the Minister of Foreign Affairs Laurent Fabius and of Defense Jean-Yves Le Drian were present ), which stipulates the sale of three hundred and forty square kilometers of Italian sea, between Sardinia, Liguria and the Tuscan archipelago, to France. After ratifying the agreement, on 21 January 2015 the French government seized thefishing boat Mina. The fishing boat, seized in the port of Nice by the Gendarmerie Maritime, is brought back to Italy under payment of eight thousand euros. Minister Gentiloni decides not to intervene in the diplomatic question. Italy has not yet ratified the agreement. Paolo Gentiloni strongly supports European integration and a multi-speed Europe. During his premiership, Gentiloni faced several challenging foreign policy situations, such as the European debt crisis, the civil war in Libya, the Islamic insurgency in the Middle East.
Marcello Pera, or sometimes they come back (and they are also intelligent)
A convinced Atlantist and intellectual of race, the former president of the Senate in the past had been noted for his good relations with the Holy See during the pontificate of Pope Ratzinger.
Roberta Pinotti, but also no ... (with all due respect)
To remind us of his relations with the military world is Andrea Gaspardo: she was in succession: president of the fourth Defense Commission of the Chamber of Deputies, Undersecretary of State at the Ministry of Defense, Minister of Defense and finally president of the 4th Defense Commission of the Senate of the Republic, however, the memory he left in the military was so negative that it led me to say that I do not consider his experience sufficient to bring the slightest added value.
Romano Prodi, nine years later ... (but he has little desire)
Tiziano Ciocchetti writes about him. Proponent of a European Army, while remaining pro-American, Prodi as Prime Minister led a foreign policy also using the military instrument. Clear examples of this are the 1997 intervention in Albania to stabilize the country (operation Alba) and the increase of the Italian ISAF contingent in Afghanistan (with the sending of Mangusta attack helicopters). In recent years he has often highlighted the mistakes made by Italy in Libya, giving the reason for the lack of initiative of the various executives.
Paola Severino Di Benedetto, she is good but why spite Silvio?
Andrea Forte goes straight to the point: it's his law, which expelled Berlusconi from the Senate. Almost impossible to imagine such a slap to the Knight. There are international relations, considering, for example, his participation in the drafting of the Quirinale Treaty. It was she who made sure that her university, Luiss, participated even more in the formation of the armed forces.
Sometimes Silviano Drago uses the lash, other times the velvet glove, In this case, it goes down sweet sweet ... According to him, the president of the National School of Administration as well as vice president of Luiss, at this moment perhaps plays one of the greatest chances for the so-called pink quota. Criticized for the professional aspects that lead her to the forensic world, if the hypotheses connected to Draghi and a hypothetical Mattarella bis were really skipped, she could be the interpreter of one of the most valid candidates. Professor Severino has a very respectable curriculum, and this cannot play against her candidacy as a mere matter of principle; we wrote it at the beginning: the ideal candidate for everyone does not exist. The presidential office is charged with power, and only people who in their field have been able to exercise it with skill can be approached, unless power itself is interpreted as a factor capable of preventing the taking of institutional positions.
Giulio Carlo Danilo Tremonti, he is intelligent but we hope that Mario Monti will not come back as well ...
We have been talking for a few days about the former minister of economic departments of the Berlusconi governments. More than plan b, according to Andrea Forte, it would be the secret card of the center-right. Especially like the "allies" of the Knight, but to remind them that he likes it, it would have been Renzi, who always aspires to be the star of the game. Together with Draghi, he is perhaps the atlantist who is most aware of the geopolitical challenges underway. As a minister he made painful cuts to defense, but he is a firm believer in the Chinese threat in the fields of Big data and artificial intelligence, and he believes we should invest in these.
Walter Veltroni, a bit of a nice guy, a bit of a gentleman (with less chance of all?)
The Clintonite, according to Silviano Drago, in order to have any chance asks for a collective commitment that guarantees unity by electing a bipartisan president already at the first vote, in a legislative framework that resists external pressures. Amen!
A politician attentive to the flow of events, Veltroni in the past has not failed to spend himself in favor of the police and has sought meeting points, sometimes even criticized, with the opposition. The (legitimate) positions expressed for the Ustica tragedy remain alive on the military. In short, an intelligent, communicative politician, but who in a super partes role should demonstrate an equidistance perhaps yet to mature.
The last words ...
We leave the conclusion to Andrea Gaspardo. In the field of geopolitics and international relations, we know that many of the names mentioned above have decades of experience behind them in the most disparate institutions at national and international level, for which they have had the opportunity to forge both institutional and personal relationships that "could" (the conditional is mandatory!) be useful for the protection of Italian national interests. The problem here is to ask: what are the Italian national interests? And how do the aforementioned subjects decline them? A quick look at the registry of the interested parties reveals that they were all born or raised in a historical era in which Italy was no longer a country that was the master of its destiny and were shaped by a cultural world that has essentially created generations of "Irresponsible" (in the sense of "not responsible"). Mentally trained in the "American Century" and badly accustomed to decades of "apparent peace", in my humble (not to say the least) opinion the aforementioned candidates all seem (perhaps with the only partial exceptions of Romano Prodi and Mario Draghi, but not I'm completely sure!) substantially unprepared to protect Italy from the geopolitical storms that will hit our world in the next 20-30 years and that will radically reshape the global balance of power.
Photo: Defense Online
