The Syrian S-300 and the risk of a new escalation

(To Andrea Gaspardo)
22/10/18

Following the downing of an Il-20 electronic surveillance aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Force stationed in Syria during an Israeli air strike against alleged Iranian military targets along the Syrian coast, Moscow followed the words in the aftermath of the tragedy by the Minister of Defense Sergey Shoigu and confirmed the green light for the delivery of new military supplies to the Syrian ally, among which the anti-air and anti-ballistic S-300 defense systems stand out.

Entered into operational service with the Soviet armed forces from the 1978, the S-300 is still considered, despite its age, among the best systems of its kind. Syria had originally placed an order for a total of 6 battalions of S-300 systems already before the outbreak of the Syrian Civil War, but Putin had suspended supplies on at least five separate occasions in the context of negotiations aimed at creating what, from the perspective of the Russian president (and probably against the advice of many of his advisers), was to become a special partnership between Russia and Israel.

The demolition of the IL-20 was a kind of rude awakening for the Russians. Including that the nature of relations between the two countries is absolutely asymmetric and devoid of the degree of trust that should exist in such delicate contexts, and after having suffered not negligible losses in terms of human lives, without counting the "fool" done at international level both in front of their opponents and their allies on the ground, the Russian military decided (according to the malicious probably even forcing the hand to Putin) to proceed with the delivery of the S-300 in order to stop the adventurism increasingly bold of Jerusalem.

The first missile systems have already arrived in the operational theater, however, by the mouth of Shoigu himself, it will take about 3 months for the delivery of the equipment and the training of the crew to be completed and, in the meantime, the S-300 made gradually operational they will be used by Russian personnel.

The overall plan envisages the establishment of 8 battalions, organized in 32 batteries, operating 128 launchers capable of firing 640 ready-to-use and reserve missiles. Not only that, Russia has already announced that both the S-300s and the other older anti-aircraft systems of the Syrian Anti-Air Defense will be integrated into a single data sharing system with the Russian ones already present in the territory, in addition to the anti-aircraft Syria will be equipped with new communication systems, until now used only by Russian forces, which will significantly increase its operational readiness and reaction speed. The deployment of such a volume of fire will result in a dramatic increase in the capabilities of the Syrian Anti-Air Defense, interfering not only with the clandestine bombing missions of the Israeli Aerospace Force but also with the air missions of the International Coalition in the east and north. -east of the country.

Net of the rhetoric, especially Israeli, it is very difficult at the moment to evaluate what the reactions of the deployments in the field will be in the immediate future, even if we already talk about the possibility that the Israelis or even the Americans can use their F- 35 and F-22 to destroy S-300 batteries once they have become operational.

What is certain is that the delicate relationship of trust between the Russian Federation and the State of Israel has been shattered and a very powerful anti-aircraft weapon system is now in the hands of Syria and this undoubtedly represents an escalation future storms.

(photo: MoD Russian Federation)