The 9 October two anti-ship missiles launched by the rebels Houthi have targeted the American destroyer USS Mason at the height of the Bab al Mandab strait, in the Red Sea, close to the Yemeni coasts. The bombs missed the target, as reported by the Pentagon, and the ship did not fire back.
Only a few days before the support vessel HSV2 she had been hit and burned by other anti-ship missiles launched by the rebels themselves Houthi near the port of Mocha. Local sources have indicated the cargo ship as a US-owned supply ship but leased by the UAE naval forces for the occasion (let us remember that Abu Dhabi officially left the Saudi-led coalition since June 2016).
These two news would be enough to summarize the state of the art in one of the geopolitically warmest areas of the world.
Let's take a step back.
In the southernmost part, the Red Sea throttles in the Bab al Mandab strait, a funnel no more than 20 km. The Yemeni side is in the hands of the forces loyal to Saleh who are fighting against the Sunni coalition. The militia Houthi they control all the western regions of the country, from the port areas of Mocha and Hudaydah, up to and beyond the border with Arabia.
The south-west coast of the Red Sea is instead divided between Djibouti (with the American base of Le Monier) and Eritrea, whose governments have a pro-Riad position, although limited to logistic support. Even some of the islands close to the strait (Zuqar and Hanish) are in the hands of the forces of Hadi, a Sunni president supported by the coalition and the West.
From this it is clear how crucial is the ongoing clash in the western part of Yemen and the fury of the Saudi air forces precisely against rebel targets (with massacres of continuous civilians…) concentrated along the coastal cities.
The military capabilities of the militia Houthi and in general Shiite pro Saleh forces are constantly progressing. In addition to the Chinese anti-ship missiles (earth-to-ground missiles have been devastating Saudi bases for months) it would be evolving, thanks to the support of Iran and Hezbollah, especially the competence in terms of special naval forces. A body of underwater raiders Houthi he would have been trained by Hezbollah for assaults to be carried out in the Red Sea. On numbers, between propaganda and silence, it is impossible to have certain data.
The fact falls within a more general framework. 
The Saudi invasion of Yemen had to be a lightning war aimed at isolating Shiite rebels in the inland mountains and restoring the power of Sunni Hadi to the country. In reality it has resulted in a humanitarian disaster that has lasted for almost two years.
The Saudi military difficulties have increased the instability that right on the coasts of the Red Sea finds its most critical point: in the western regions of Yemen the rebels are strong and keep an area of strategic value at a global level.
Some data is enough.
At the strait of Bab al Mandab to the south, corresponds the Suez Canal to the north. For Suez passes the 8% of world maritime traffic and the 5% of oil traffic. With its 100 ships per day (until the 2015 Channel was doubled they were only 50) it is the most important global maritime node, with no tonnage limits. After the extension works, a lot of traffic traditionally directed to Panama, today passes through the Red Sea and the trend is increasing.
So can the Yemen war have repercussions on the world economy?
Definitely yes.
The US noticed this and sent reinforcements to the Fifth Fleet, which is responsible for the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean. There USS Mason, target of Yemeni missiles, is part of it.
The American presence in the area is strong and growing. In addition to the Aden base (the 12 October are 15 years from the assassination attempt on the destroyer USS Cole, anchored precisely in Aden), there is the island of Socotra and the aforementioned Djibouti.
More than a strategic deterrent, however, American action seems to be running for cover. In the regional context the situation is not at all fluid and the mere military presence seems of little use if not supported by a long-term geopolitical design.
In this regard and in relation to the importance of Suez, the role of Egypt remains to be seen.
Al Sisi was one of the sponsors of the Sunni pro Hadi coalition. His support for Saudi Arabia, however, is integrated into a much more complex geopolitical position.
Egypt, wounded by Islamic extremism that is rampant in Sinai, is at the forefront of the fight against international terrorism. Arch-enemy of the Muslim Brotherhood, supports Haftar who fights it in Libya. The position assumed places Cairo in friction with the West, guardian of the semi-Islamist government in Tripoli. It also puts him in friction with Turkey, which instead has excellent relations with Riad.
Not only. Despite official denials, there has been talk for months of possible Russian military bases on Egyptian territory. Relations between Al Sisi and Putin are excellent, as are the commercial relations between the two countries. Not by chance the Mistral built in France and originally intended for Russia, they are now Egyptian but equipped with helicopters Kamov provided by Moscow.
Who then is Egypt with?
Cairo plays an independent chess game, protecting its interests according to the case. If in Yemen it has an official pro-West and anti-Iranian position, in Libya it exposes itself and winks at Russia. The fact that Moscow flirts with Iran in the round, it seems a short circuit but it is not: just to give an example, Egypt has spoken out in favor of Russian raids in Syria (same position as Tehran) with a surge such as to create discontent in Washington.
It is therefore very likely that in the Yemen war Cairo will defend its direct interests, not the generic ones of the West, showing exceptional diplomatic dynamism. Likewise, a connection with Ankara will be linked again, through the credits that Erdogan has won in Moscow.
With his foot in two shoes, Al Sisi holds tight, especially Suez, which is vital for his speakers. The tolls of the ships (around the 150.000 euro per pass) are an essential resource for Egypt: after the emigrants' remittances and tourism is the third item of the national budget.
In conclusion, it would be appropriate to interpret what happens in Yemen according to the importance it deserves. Behind the atrocious local conflict over which the regional sponsors Saudi Arabia and Iran are blowing, there is actually a clash with economic and geopolitical consequences of much wider scope.
Only countries that have political foresight can reap long-term benefits.
(photo: US Navy - AMN)
