In the Syrian tangle, alliances are fluid and it is not always easy to understand who is fighting what. The disintegration of the central state following the Syrian civil war has made the situation on the ground even more difficult. Entire sectors of the country have ended up self-managing or joining an external "big brother". This is the case of the Turkmen, a minority that populates the strip of land between northern Syria, Iraq, Iran and the Republic of Turkmenistan, homeland of origin on the Caspian Sea.
It is not an ethnically homogeneous territory, and contrary to what someone struggles to support, it has not been the subject of noisy political claims. The land inhabited by the Turkmen in some parts is mixed with Kurdistan, which in itself is not easy to identify in consideration of the massive overlapping of Arab and Iranian populations.
Damascus has never recognized a true representation to the Turkmen, even if for political calculation it has always been very scrupulous to the balance between ethnic and religious minorities (Christians have always been protected by Assad). To be honest, nobody is ever interested in the destiny of semi-nomadic mountain populations, of a lineage not very different from those that have inhabited many southern regions of the first and then Soviet Tsarist empire.
Things have changed since the role of Turkey, the ethnic-cultural mother of many peoples who cross diagonally across Asia to Mongolia, has grown in the Syrian jumble. From the disruption of the USSR onwards, the revival of instances that have been dormant for centuries has begun to stimulate the ambitions of many Eurasian peoples, often with an ill-concealed sense of revenge towards the ancient Russian "master-colonizers".
In this regard, also to better understand what is happening in Syria after the episode of the downed Russian plane, we must consider two factors:
- the historical rivalry between Turkey and Russia
- the rebirth of Ottoman imperialism "
Moscow and Ankara have gazed at each other for centuries and do not miss an opportunity to prove it. President Putin was the only one among the statesmen to attend the centenary ceremony of the Armenian genocide in Yerevan. With the exception of France, historically hostile to Turkey, all European countries have preferred to align themselves with the low profile of the USA, which in order not to irritate Ankara have never recognized the Armenian massacre.
Strategic disputes between Russia and Turkey are virtually endless. The stakes are huge between the Black Sea and the Caucasus. In particular we talk about:
- strategic outlets on the Mediterranean necessary for Russia and control of the Bosphorus;
- hegemony on the Black Sea;
- Turkish support for the repressive Islamic republics of Ingushetia, Chechnya and Dagestan within the Russian Federation;
- exploitation of energy resources on the Caspian Sea and influence on Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, countries linked by DNA to Turkey but formerly part of the Soviet space;
- Armenian question and Nagorno war Karabakh where Russia and Turkey have lined up on opposite sides.
To this must be added the rediscovery of the Sunni Muslim identity of today's Turkey, more and more distant from the secular furrow desired by Ataturk. The Islamic curtain wavered by Ankara allows gathering peoples bearing around the Ottoman dream of a somewhat genetic rebirth of the Turkish people.
The Turkmens of the Syrian mountains and Iraq adapt well to the situation. Ethnically close to the Turks, they have ambiguous relations with theESL (the defectors of the army of Damascus), with Al Nusra (The Al Qaeda Syrian, initially supported by Western Services ...) and the Salafist extremists of Ahrar al Sham. But they are enemies of the peshmerga Kurds and even if in theory adverse to ISIS end up having the same objectives: a Great Turkey to the north; a large Sunni Arab (and Islamist) mass from the Euphrates down.
The existence in the north of Syria of the Army of Conquest, a rebel group armed by the Gulf monarchies and Ankara is the perfect synthesis of this design.
To break the eggs in the basket there are the imperial projections of Russia, in turn, returned to the pre-Soviet sense of identity. The image of the remains of the downed Russian pilot, including a crucifix and an Orthodox Madonna, explains more than many analyzes ...
The rest of the game is made by Shia Muslims, both Arabs like Assad and Hezbollah, and Persians like the Iranians.
In the Syrian vespaio two things appear safe today: despite the US pushing for the opposite, we are returning to geopolitics patterns prior to the Cold War; everything is missing in Syria except that the conditions for the war to continue.
We will see.
(photo: Suriye Türkmen Sancağı / ВВФ)
