The killing of an ambassador is a fact in itself unheard of and one of the most serious that the protocol of international relations can count. Its immediate effect appears to be disruptive and fits fully into the complicated tangle of relations between Russia and Turkey.
Apparently the relationship between the two countries rotates like a dervish, leaving very little of the line to follow shortly. To look better though, it's not like that. One word will continue to reign supreme once again: pragmatism. Diplomacy at heart is nothing but a noble form of cynicism.
Ankara, who returned to Canossa after the risk of the Russian Sukhoi crushed in November 2015, brought Moscow closer last summer. An authoritative interlocutor in the Syrian cauldron was indispensable for Turkey, especially in order to achieve the only goal it really needs: securing security on the southeastern border where Kurdish independence and massive influx of refugees have long been a strategic problem.
In this context Erdogan has an important negotiating card, given by the support to the rebel militias of the north of Syria. The tap of Turkish aid has so far held the anti-Assad front in the governorates of Aleppo and Idlib, and in the logic of future arrangements in the Middle East will certainly have a weight. How much, depends on the political games in progress.
Turkey's rehabilitation for Moscow was instead, at least until the US presidential elections, a clever diplomatic move to weaken the historic axis of Ankara-Washington, already put to the test by the attempted coup in July. The Kremlin understood in time that it would have gotten much more from Turkey with the good, than by shaking the already quiet waters between the two countries.
The results came immediately and the first tangible effects were seen in Syria. Without bilateral agreements between Moscow and Ankara, the evacuation of the militia in Aleppo would not have been there, the urban battle would not have ended and above all Assad would not have emerged victorious. If in the 2017 the war in Syria will have a term, without a doubt, Turkey will be among the protagonists of the negotiating table. Having a half-friend sitting in front of you is always better than having an entire enemy. This Putin knows very well.
All roses and flowers then?
The killing of Ambassador Karlov would appear to be an obstacle to this trend, capable of bringing Russian-Turkish relations back to the darkness at the end of 2015. Putin's official words regarding Turkish security responsibilities were very clear.
In reality, however, it is presumable that from this brutal event, somehow it will be Russia, whose Achilles heel remains the bad light in which it has been expelled in recent years by the western political and media mainstream.
Not even the twenty-year commitment against Islamist terrorism, very expensive for Moscow in terms of human and financial, has served to break the circle. Top political reasons have continued to work incessantly (and with good results) to put Putin in the corner.
Finding yourself today in the role of the blatant victim of terrorism for Russia can only be a cure-all. However cynical it may seem, it will help that change of course that many chancelleries will be forced to, on which Trump's entry into the White House will have a decisive weight.
The dramaturgical effect is all there. The killing of an ambassador, as a profanation of a sacredness recognized by all, touches the emotional chords not only of the insiders. Today the Russians can parade in silence and remind the world that evil knows no bounds. In this respect, Ambassador Karlov's state funeral will be a very clear message to the world:
"Did you understand who the bad guys are now?"
The presence of Putin, who for the occasion has moved the waiting press conference at the end of the year, increases the drama of a square that Western public opinion is increasingly struggling to frame as the enemy.
Not everyone seems to realize it though. While the future geopolitical balances mature, someone continues to remain a prisoner of the twentieth century. In recent days, the European Union has re-launched sanctions against the Russian Federation for another six months, starting with two prestigious goals: to sell commercial land to Asian economies ready to take over from Brussels-Moscow relations; cede political and commercial ground to the United States, which in a month will inaugurate a whole new season of international relations, of which Europe will probably be the most prestigious victim.
