Ready "Plan B" of Kerry for the partition of Syria but Damascus advances on all fronts

(To Giampiero Venturi)
25/02/16

Haste seems to be the watchword in the Syria issue. The bulletins follow each other with ever smaller intervals, continuing to report numbers of deaths and destruction.

In general indifference, the war continues and crosses military developments with important political signals.

From the point of view of field operations, the most significant figure is the defeat of the ISIS militias in the desert area of ​​Khannaser, where the Syrian Armed Forces and their allies have regained control of the city and supply routes from south to Aleppo. The violent battle (about 60 deaths among the government) would have taken place between the afternoon of 24 and the dawn of 25 February.

The dreaded Tiger Forces, elite units of the Syrian army, units of the 11, would take part in the reconquest of the city.a Armored Division and a Baath Party Battalion. It seems to have been decisive the Russian bombardment lasted 48 consecutive hours on groupings and convoys of terrorists in the whole area.

The budget of the victims of the Caliphate has not been provided by any source. There is talk of huge losses.

Also in Deir ez-Zor (south-east) the assaults in style of the First World War of the terrorists of the Caliphate against the airport would continue. They would be systematically decimated by the Syrian Republican Guard guards.

Despite the successes of the last weeks of the loyalist forces, there is still a great vitality of the ISIS forces.

Well-informed sources of Online Defense speak of a "good shift" to the front for ISIS militants. The exchange of men on the fighting line would fluctuate between the 3 and the 6 months, allowing the Islamic State to always rely on relatively fresh forces. The figure is explained by an inflow from the rear, obviously not yet interrupted. One wonders when a decisive intervention against the countries that strongly support Islamic fundamentalism can remedy a framework that makes the operational phases on the ground more difficult.

Two political news that further complicate the picture.

On the one hand, Turkish President Erdogan has officially asked the US not to involve the Kurdish militias in the cease-fire planned for Saturday 27. Turkey, without periphrasis, thus declares that it has no interest in a pacification of the area that does not include the securing of its southern borders. There is talk of the famous "bearing" of 10 km where Ankara's regular forces and related militias could move freely.

The doubt at this point is Washington's answer, put before a choice: supporting the YPG Kurds and at the same time allowing Turkey to hit them seems to have become impossible.

The second novel is the statement by US Secretary of State Kerry that heralds a possible "Plan B" in the event that Damascus and its allies (Hezbollah, Iran and especially Russia) made the implementation of the ceasefire difficult. The "Plan B" would provide for a partition of Syria. The planned summit in Adana on Friday 26 between high-ranking Turkish and Saudi officials, will probably focus on this eventuality.