Al Sarraj flew to Moscow. With this simple act the West takes note of the impasse of the Libyan crisis and relies on other solutions.
Let's take a step back.
The Tripoli government recognized with trumpets and drums by the United Nations, the US and the European Union actually has no powers. It is an almost virtual executive that administers less than a third of the country and accounts for the Islamic cartels heavily penetrated by fundamentalism. In order to survive (in the real sense of the term), Al Sarraj must respond to the Muslim Brotherhood, the predominant block of the Islamic galaxy that currently dominates in Tripolitania with the approval of the United States and Great Britain. Not all of the territory is under control. In addition to the Berber area of Zintan, an ally of the first hour of the Parliament of Tobruk, the regions towards Niger and those close to the borders with Tunisia and Algeria are a highway of arms traffic destined for the Sahel and of human beings destined for Europe. The Islamist presence is very strong in the same areas.
THEendorcement received by Al Sarraj, after 15 months from the agreements made in Morocco, it is producing its fruits: absolute zero.
Cyrenaica in turn continues the independent path from Tripoli, with General Haftar increasingly linked to Egypt by Al Sisi and by the end 2016, officially recognized as an interlocutor by Moscow. In other words: Libya, which the United States and Europe have done everything to divide despite declarations of intent, is today de facto uniform.
In this context, Russia has played cunning, exploiting decades of special relations with Arab countries, in particular with some of the Mediterranean belt; among these stand out Algeria, Egypt (pre Sadat and post Mubarak) and obviously Libya, which under Gaddafi was already a bridgehead for Moscow.
Despite the alarmism of some media that shout about the landing of the Russians in North Africa, a simple history book is enough to understand: the Russians, thanks to structural links in the area, are filling a diplomatic void generated by 6 years of war and instability.
The lack of a credible national state and the lack of communication between the Anglo-Islamic Tripolitania and the Egyptian Cyrenaica have created a void within which the illegal export of hydrocarbons and the undisputed dominion of local militias continue.
The stalemate, punctuated by continuous conflicts, can be unlocked by the only interlocutor potentially able to speak in Tripoli and Tobruk, that is Moscow.
The relationship between Haftar and Russia has been talked about for months. Galeotto was the common intertwining with Egypt of Al Sisi, sworn enemy of the Muslim Brotherhood and therefore of the current clique in power in Tripoli. Dumped from the US where he has been pampered for twenty years, the 74-year-old general represents the only real opposition to the spread of radical Islam in Libya. In a few years it has gathered all the nostalgics of the former Gaddafi regime, mostly identifiable with officers, officials and cadres of secular and bourgeois extraction. 
The rapid convergence of recent times between Cairo and Moscow represents today the greatest strategic guarantee for Haftar, who on the Mediterranean shore will also be able to count on the support of Algeria, another historical friend of Russia, whose recently replenished arsenals could serve as tank for those of the militiamen of Cyrenaica.
As we said above, however, the real news is Al Sarraj's journey to Moscow, to be considered as a sort of diplomatic abdication of the West.
Behind the attempt of the Libyan "premier" is the political bridge between Turkey and Russia. It is no coincidence that the attempts at concrete contact between Tripolitania and Cyrenaica began right in parallel with the thaw between Ankara and Moscow last summer. Turkey is the main sponsor of the Muslim Brotherhood which commands in Tripoli. In summary, if the Turks and Russians wanted it, Libya would have a serious chance of regaining stability.
The stakes are enormous, above all for economic reasons. Al Sarraj's trip to Russia follows the agreement between the two days National Oil Corporation , Rosneft, oil giants controlled by Tripoli and Moscow respectively. The agreement provides for the joint exploitation of Libyan resources and relaunches Russian economic interests in the Arab country, seriously questioned after the elimination of Gaddafi and the arrival of Western multinationals. In this regard it is worth remembering that Rosneft is controlled by 50% directly by the Russian government.
Another aspect that could benefit is certainly the trafficking of "refugees" in the hands of armed Islamist gangs and local and Italian organized crime. Among the many reasons that have so far prevented Libya from returning to a semblance of normality is the fact that many do not agree. Suffice it to say that today the country is the African terminal for the sale of "migrants" while not even a fly came out of Gaddafi's heavily armored Libya.
In this context, the Italian-Libyan agreement signed in Rome on February 2 by Prime Minister Gentiloni and by Al Sarraj should be mentioned. The agreement provides for a collaboration to stem the phenomenon of illegal immigration. For how much good faith there can be between the parts, the memorandum collides with the reality of the facts: on the one hand there is a leader who does not control the country for which he is engaged (Libya); on the other, a country that does not control its borders (Italy). Just Italy, heavily involved in the Libyan mining economy and lined up in the front row with theOperation Hippocrates in Misrata, it is among the countries that would benefit the most from a release of the Libyan stalemate.
The game is all to be played. The contact between Al Sarraj and Moscow at present seems to be the only real possibility of thinking about an effective agreement between the government of Tripoli and the Parliament of Tobruk. The reaction of the minor actors remains to be seen, almost never fully aligned with the two main poles of the Libyan crisis.
Yesterday was the news that the jihadi militias of Benghazi had taken from the Libyan National Army (the Haftar forces that respond to Tobruk) the oil terminals of Ras Lanuf and the Sidra, part of the Cyrenaica Oil Crescent conquered by Haftar in September . This does not bode well.
(photo: LNA/ Web)
