The Middle Eastern strategic framework sees the concrete possibility of a new Israeli intervention against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
If this were to occur, contrary to what happened in the 2006 (SUMMER RAIN operation), the IDF could be faced with the Lebanese Armed Forces, deployed alongside the Shiite militias. Hypothesis at least plausible from the moment in which the legislative elections of 6 last May saw the conquest, by Hezbollah and its allies, the majority of seats in the Lebanese Parliament. Furthermore, in the 2016, he was elected President Michel Aoun, above all thanks to the fundamental support of Hassan Nashrallah, Hezbollah's general secretary.
Obviously the Beirut army would not be able to pose a serious threat to the Tsahal, both in terms of firepower and staff, however, the Lebanese armored-mechanized departments could still slow down the offensive thrust of a possible Israeli raid, given also the large number of wire-guided missiles BGM-71 TOW and MILAN available of the Lebanese infantry.
The Beirut Armored Park consists mainly of old T-54 / 55 and M-48A1 / A5, plus some dozens of M-60A1. The armored units would still be used as a support component to operations and not as a real impact force.
The mountainous features of the Lebanese territory strongly limit the deployment of a battalion-sized battleship component, plus absolute Israeli air superiority would impose a leopard-like deployment in such a way as to reduce losses. So the combat unit of reference should be at the platoon level, which can more easily be confused with the environment and take sides with greater speed to ambush the advancing forces.
Despite the possible support of mechanized departments, the most effective tactics of the Shiite militias lie in deploying small teams armed with anti-tank systems very difficult to detect and hit, as occurred in the second Lebanese war, during which the balance of losses suffered by Israeli armored departments were 52 MERKAVA knocked out (although most recovered while the losses among the crews were 23 units alone). The experience gained by the IDFs in this conflict has led to a drastic change in the use doctrines of armored units to adapt them to the concept of asymmetric warfare. In addition, the entry into service of the MERKAVA IVM equipped with the active protection system TROPHY (known as ASPRO-A in the name of Tsahal). In the operation MARGINE DI PROTECTION in July-August 2014 in the Gaza Strip, the TROPHY successfully intercepted missile rockets and missiles, including the AT-14 SPRIGGAN, fired by Hamas militia.
In the event of a new Israeli attack on Lebanese territory, it is very likely that the IDF will launch a mechanized / armored offensive in order to dismantle the infrastructure and destroy the Hezbollah armaments depots.
(photo: IDF / LAF)
