The Russian formations, which now seem to be a real invasion force, are unfolding in the northern and eastern parts of the Ukrainian borders.
According to US intelligence analysts, the goal would be to penetrate from the western border, but it could be a false flag, in fact satellite surveys show a concentration of units in the north and in the north-western part of Ukraine, probably with the intention to break through the opposing defense forces and aim directly at Kiev through Chernihiv.
Despite the Kremlin's assurances, the aggression appears to be imminent, and this hypothesis is supported by the arrival of new troops. The 12th Tank Regiment of the 4th Kantemirovsky Guards Armored Division has been spotted by advanced sighting satellites moving from southwestern Bryansk Oblast. This regiment has the ability to conduct an offensive through Chernihiv directly on Kiev, the capital of Ukraine.
A battalion of elite units, the Taman, is also marching, while a motorized division is settling in the areas of Amon and Kalynivka, in the Kursk Oblast, respectively at 15 and 7 km from the border with Ukraine.
Completing the Russian land deployment, logistic and communications units. Three battalions of the 76 ° Pskov Airborne Assault Division and two battalions of the Tula Airborne 106 division, with 25 Mi-24 attack helicopters, are being trained near the cities of Belgorod, Severnyi and Stroitel.
The forces involved are estimated in approximately 1.100 military, supported by armored 120.
The front could widen to the north of Ukraine where the invasion troops could move into the Kharkiv-Dneproterovsk route, and with a coup d'etat take control over the entire north of Ukraine.
The best option to invade Ukraine remains however the director Cherhihiv - Kiev, supported by the north-east and with the necessary air support.
Taking control of the north-east of Ukraine, where the centers of power are located, it will be easy to conquer the rest of the country.
The only possible option for the attackers is a large-scale guerrilla defense, facilitated by the orography of their nation. If they succeeded in inflicting losses on the attackers, this could affect the morale and beliefs of the Russian citizens who support Putin.
The second purpose of an effective opposition to the invading forces is to involve Russia in a long-lasting war, which could allow the West to organize both economic and military aid.
If the areas most suitable for the attack are the north and north-east, with the consequent rapid capitulation of the eastern and southern part of Ukraine, it would be necessary to prepare pockets of resistance to slow down the advance of the opposing formations, striking with fast actions of contrast and denial of the Ukrainian hinterland.
The contrast missions could be supported by the regular army, which should be attested in a "reduced" that allows a good maneuvering capacity and to receive the reinforcements remaining to guard the areas not involved in the Russian breakthrough.
The hope remains that reasonableness has the upper hand over the military option.
Giovanni Caprara
(photo: MoD Russian Federation)
