14/04/2015 - The following article aims to analyze in general some of the most significant elements that characterize the phenomenon of Islamic terrorism with particular reference to the dynamics linked to the self-styled "Islamic State".

This analysis is carried out in order to identify how the new forms of conflict require a change in the responses that allow to face effectively the threat of transnational terrorism.

The recent terrorist attacks in Paris, Copenhagen and Tunis, the continuing presence of the "Islamic State" and the centrality of the mass media and social media urgently require the understanding of the threat posed by jihadist terrorism.

A change of scale

A first element of analysis is the overlap of different geographical scales in which the phenomenon of jihadist terrorism operates.

1. Local scale and reticular structure: the so-called IS operates in a "reticular" dimension, building at local level affiliated terrorist groups as in the case of Nigeria and Libya. This level of reticulation also develops on a global scalar route through contact networks with sympathizers or militants of terrorist organizations.

2. Regional scale: In the current phase the entire Middle East is characterized by a complex transition in its dynamics that are disarticulating the entire previous geopolitical order. Crisis of the previous regimes and religious radicalization are two of the decisive components for understanding the Middle Eastern context: with the crisis of the State form combined with the use of religion as an ideological function, it has crept into the fragile Middle Eastern context, a threat that destabilizes - even in relation to the enormous problems of the economic and social area linked in particular to the absence of economic development, to the collapse of states characterized by ethnic conflicts and / or religious contrapositions, by political struggles degenerating into civil wars - the the entire area through the construction of an organization that aspires to form a statual-religious entity that constitutes a threat at the regional, European and global level in the heart of the Middle East.

3. European scale: The geographical position of Europe places it at the center of security threats: both as regards potential security threats related to the geographical proximity of the Middle East and as regards possible "internal" threats made up of its own citizens or migrant emigrants - in a dynamic whose analysis would require the involvement of sociology, anthropology and social history - directly or indirectly to terrorist groups.

4. World scale: The threat posed by terrorism operates on a level that involves the entire planet. The attack of 11 September 2001, has manifested a development in the forms of contemporary conflict that does not take into account any limitation: geographical, legal or in the tools used for carrying out terrorist operations.

The aforementioned scales operate both individually and in a manner transcalare determining a constant link between local and global conflicts.

Asymmetry and new technologies

It is clear that we are faced with an "asymmetrical" conflict in which the opponent adopts techniques and operating methods attributable not only to traditional schemes but also to the insurrectional war indeed, precisely the non-conventionality constitutes the greatest figure of terrorism today. This asymmetry on the techniques of armed conflict is combined, as the example of the IS demonstrates, with the intensive use of information technologies applied above all to the field of communication and social media. This is an element to underline for the understanding of the change taking place, in which there is the combination between insurrectional forms of war and the use of modern technologies aimed at propaganda, "global" communication, and recruitment (also on transnational scale). The use of social media shows the network and global dimension of security threats. The proselytizing action conducted via the web works as a "bait" that tends to involve individual subjects - "so-called lone wolves" - who, following indoctrination or emulation, could conduct terrorist actions in their countries or join the self-styled IS.

Statistical and territorial dimension

One of the factors that most characterizes the current phase of conflict in the Middle East is certainly the "collapse" or "failure" of the state realities such as Libya, the disaggregation of Iraq, the conflict in Syria that have favored social conditions and of power in order for IS to emerge as a terrorist group of Islamist origin that would like to become a "state". To date, it is not possible to determine if the IS is able to rise to the state dimension - which requires the organization of the typical functions exercised by a State (defense, control of resources and population) - however, what it detects it is like the idea of ​​"caliphate" combined with religious faith and the desire to establish an autonomous political-social system, a new element compared to the operative modalities of similar terrorist groups. This change has obvious geopolitical consequences. In the first place, it would determine the risk of insinuating in a critical area an entity with autonomous economic and financial resources, its own territory, which would constitute - and constitutes - a danger for regional and global security as geopolitics pursued by an entity terrorist type of state would be universal - ie aimed at the worldwide expansion of the self-proclaimed caliphate - ultimately constituting a global threat. The first consequence of the possible formation of an Islamic State would be to redefine the entire regional order by opening up more conflict scenarios in other crisis areas (becoming a potential substitute for radical "matrix" affiliated groups) or deepening crisis already underway in the Middle East and in other areas such as Nigeria and Chechnya. This aspect of statehood poses a further question concerning the social dynamics of the conflict. By social dynamics of the conflict we mean an extension of the spectrum of the clash with terrorist organizations that also involves institutional and social aspects: it is also on the ground of the construction of social structures and the involvement of moderate local populations that unfolds the conflict with the organizations of terrorist type.

Cultural dimension

Finally, it is important to underline the "transversal" nature of the conflict: it invests culture, social organizations, the media, the web, propaganda, the economy, ideological and religious visions.

Noting that the jihadist terrorism operates as an actor based on the religious dimension of its action and propaganda, it is evident that the historical and cultural knowledge of the Middle Eastern context is a factor of strategic importance to provide a medium-long term response to the current crisis in the Middle East.

Understanding and knowledge of the specific local context is an essential factor to operate in different cultural contexts. The skills of cultural anthropology, sociology, communication and history are the tools that must accompany the planning of security policies. It is from the awareness of the cultural context in which an actor actually works that it is possible to understand and develop effective response strategies that involve is conventional actions is actions linked to institutional dynamics, to consensus building and which, as a whole, operate as irreplaceable elements of security policies. The cultural aspect of the ongoing conflict operates on two interrelated fronts: as a necessary element of knowledge of the "field"Where it is going to operate, and allows an appropriate policy setting at the local level. From the general analysis of the above mentioned elements the "multidimensional" and "molecular" nature of the challenge put in place by transnational terrorism that requires the implementation of adequate security policies is confirmed.

Ciro Luigi Tuccillo