In Madgeburgo 200 injured (40 of them seriously) and 5 dead, including a child. Germany has been refusing to grasp the meaning of prevention for years, in fact not monitoring certain networks (and subjects) as it should and systematically ignoring reports from more performing intelligence agencies, including that of the Belpaese.
The Italian security equation represents a unique case in the panorama of Western intelligence, where the experience gained in the fight against the mafia and domestic terrorism during the Years of Lead offers critical lessons for the present. The failure of German intelligence in Magdeburg resonates as a déjà vu of pre-Falcone Italy, when the compartmentalization of information and the lack of an integrated strategy allowed criminal organizations to operate in the interstices of the system.
Al Abdulmohsen's operational biography, with his trajectory from Saudi computer scientist to hybrid terrorist, mirrors the modern criminal evolutions that the Italian anti-mafia has already faced: the fusion of technical skills and ideological radicalization, transnational networking, the sophisticated use of technology to evade surveillance.
The Italian experience in the creation of the DIA (Anti-Mafia Investigation Directorate) offers a replicable model for the fight against new terrorism. How Falcone understood the need to follow the financial flows to dismantle Cosa Nostra, today intelligence must track the bitcoin and transactions crypto of terrorist networks. The method of the Palermo anti-mafia pool, with its integration of investigative skills and systemic analysis, anticipates by thirty years the modern fusion centers. Italian know-how in the management of informants and preventive wiretaps represents a unique operational asset that could revolutionize the European approach to combating terrorism.
The evolution of the mafia towards computerized business models has forced Italian intelligence to develop predictive capabilities that are now valuable in the fight against terrorism. The Italian system for monitoring mafia infiltration in public procurement, based on algorithms machine learning algorithm , can be adapted to identify pattern of online radicalization. The experience in protecting collaborators of justice has created unique skills in digital identity management and cyber-security.
The European response to the new terrorism requires a massive investment in predictive technology: neural networks for behavioral analysis on social media (50-70 million per country), fusion centers with mixed staff (200-300 analysts per hub), rapid response units in capitals (15-20 million per year per unit), systems predictive policing (30-40 million per city). Italy can lead this transformation thanks to the unique experience of its services in managing hybrid threats.
The "Janus" system of double check of Schengen visas mirrors the Italian inter-force anti-mafia database. The "Dedalo" social network mapping protocol is inspired by network analysis techniques developed to track mafia families. The "Argo" AI surveillance system of soft target evolves the techniques of territorial control of the anti-mafia.
As Italy understood after the massacres of '92 that the fight against the mafia required a paradigm shift (centralization of information, systemic approach, massive use of technology), today Europe must realize that the fight against hybrid terrorism requires a similar revolution. The Italian model of integrated intelligence, with its fusion of traditional investigative skills and digital predictive capabilities, offers a blueprint for this transformation.
The investment required (2-3 billion EU-wide, 800 million-1 billion in annual operating costs) is significant but necessary. The ROI (Return On Investment - ed.) in terms of attacks prevented (70-80%) largely justifies the expense, especially considering the economic and social costs of a single successful attack.
The threat of hybrid terrorism, like that of the mafia in the 90s, requires a systemic response that transcends silos between agencies and countries. The alternative is to continue chasing terrorists instead of preempting them, a strategy that in asymmetric warfare is tantamount to defeat..
Italy, with its unique heritage of expertise in combating hybrid threats, can and must lead this transformation of European intelligence. At stake is the very survival of the Western security model.
Marco Pugliese, analyst of Geopolitics of Security (Cisint)
