Ukraine: Innovation and Drones for the 2025 Conflict

(To Renato Caputo)
03/01/25

The experience of the past three years has underlined the crucial importance of technological innovation to the Ukrainian war effort, as the country seeks to minimize the impact of the increased resources at the enemy's disposal.

As the year begins, Ukraine must stay ahead of Russia in the race for innovation. Much will depend on the rapidly expanding ecosystem of Ukrainian defense technology companies. The Russian military in Ukraine has already encountered numerous examples of game-changing tools developed by Ukrainian defense technology talent. It is vital that this trend continues.

A particularly important category is the interceptor drones. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is widely recognized as the first drone war on a large scale to the world. Since February 2022, drone technologies have evolved at a remarkable pace. As attack and reconnaissance drones have become increasingly ubiquitous above the battlefield, the need for effective interceptor drones has become increasingly apparent.

In April 2024, Ukraine launched a competition to identify the most effective interceptor drone solutions, with the participation of dozens of Ukrainian drone manufacturers. One such model is already credited with about twenty confirmed hits on enemy spy drones and is now used by Ukrainian drone units on the Kursk, Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia fronts.

Ukrainian drone manufacturers have also managed to develop effective domestic alternatives to widely used Chinese drone models. This is a significant step forward. While Chinese drones proved to be important battlefield tools in drone warfare in the early part of the conflict, their prominence has left Ukraine dangerously dependent on imports and vulnerable to disruptions in supply chains. Domestically produced alternatives allow the Ukrainian military to reduce this dependence.

Ukraine’s efforts to integrate artificial intelligence (AI) technologies advanced in 2024, with the development of drones that can lock on to targets identified by operators during the final phase of flight before impact. This helped neutralize Russian electronic warfare jamming technologies, which typically seek to disrupt the connection between drones and operators. Ukrainian developers are now working on the next stage of AI-based drone evolution. The goal is to produce a new generation of drones that use AI not only in the final phase of targeting, but during flight.

2024 was also the year when Ukraine brought Putin’s invasion back to Russia and made the Russians realize that their home front was no longer safe from attack. This was made possible by a growing arsenal of long-range attack drones developed by Ukrainian manufacturers with ranges of over a thousand kilometers. Further long-range drone innovations are expected in 2025.

Defense technology advances over the past year have had a significant impact on Ukraine’s war effort. However, it is important to note that in modern warfare, the competition for innovation is a constant struggle that requires a high degree of creativity, coherence, and coordination. With new technologies appearing on the battlefield almost daily, any delays in the chain from development to deployment can prove deadly.

No one can predict exactly what technological challenges for defense might emerge in the coming months. However, it is already possible to identify a number of Strategic priorities for the Ukrainian army in 2025.

Ukraine’s domestic missile program has gained momentum in 2024 and is poised to play a much larger role in the 2025 war. Domestic missile production allows Ukraine to attack targets inside Russia at a time when some of the country’s Western partners remain reluctant to authorize strikes for fear of escalation. Many of the breakthroughs made in this direction have already been made public. In 2025, Russia may be surprised to learn exactly how far Ukraine’s domestic missile production has advanced.

As the nature of drone warfare becomes more sophisticated, the tactics employed by drone forces are also evolving. Ukraine's drone units are already beginning to go beyond the initial concept of "one drone, one operator", and will seek to move to more widespread use of drone swarm technologies in 2025. From a military perspective, it is crucial for Ukraine to outdo the enemy in the deployment of this cutting-edge technology.

Anti-drone defenses will also be a priority for 2025. Almost every day, Ukraine is attacked by large numbers of Russian drones that often damage civilian targets, including residential buildings and energy infrastructure. 

On the opposite side, Russian drone production is also rapidly increasing, with regular updates to drone design making these weapons difficult to counter. This will likely remain a major challenge for Ukrainian air defense teams and the country’s defense technology industry through 2025.

Photo: X