Signal Intelligence: evolution and future prospects

La Signal Intelligence, commonly abbreviated to SIGINT, is a discipline intelligence consisting of the research and processing of information of interest to security originating from signals and/or electromagnetic emissions coming from abroad¹, commonly divided into two main branches: COMINT and ELINT: the first linked to communication systems, the second different from communications (e.g., issued by a system radar or from a weapon system).

Conducted through the use of advanced technologies, SIGINT allows you to monitor, decrypt and analyze radio, telephone, network communications or some types of electromagnetic signals, offering a privileged window into the activities and intentions of potential adversaries or threats. In its modern application, it is an essential component for the sectors intelligence of many countries, including Italy which, in this regard, has recently invested in the acquisition of eight aircraft equipped with cutting-edge technologies and designed to intercept and analyze electronic signals, thus providing essential support to intelligence and in defense operations². This important investment is worth 1,2 billion. of euros, is a clear demonstration that SIGINT is a high priority for the country³.

This sector ofintelligence which, as we will see, in many cases is closely linked to the activity of decryption, is not a discipline born yesterday. Its roots lie in historical episodes of great importance such as that represented by the "Ultra" operation, during the Second World War. The main objective of this operation was to decrypt the encrypted communications with the machine Enigma, used by the Germans to transmit orders and operational messages. The Allied success in intercepting and decrypting these messages represented a significant blow to the Axis forces and contributed substantially to shortening the duration of the conflict.

SIGINT also proved to be crucial during the Cold War, when the main powers, an expression of the bipolarism of those years, engaged in continuous mutual surveillance of electronic communications to obtain strategic advantages. In fact, the story takes place in this context Echelon, when, in 1996, with the publication in New Zealand of Nicky Hager's book (Secret Power: New Zealand's role in the international spy network), the news on cd sistema Echelon have concretely begun to circulate and consolidate in Europe since 1998, following the presentation of the study commissioned by Scientific and Technical Option Assessment Officeand (STOA) of the European Parliament. The study, titled “An Assessment of Political Control Technologies,” expressed some views on the global surveillance system Echelon⁴.

This system, according to the study in question, would have constituted a global surveillance tool, designed and coordinated by the American NSA (National Security Agency), who would have intercepted Email, fax, telex and international telephone calls transiting via satellite, since the early 80s. It is therefore part of the developments following the Cold War, based on the British-American agreement in which Canada, Australia and New Zealand also participated since 1948.

Over the years, SIGINT has undergone a notable evolution, adapting to technological changes and the new panorama of global communications and this is why today it is conducted through the use of sophisticated instruments capable of intercepting a vast range of electronic signals, from traditional radio signals to satellite communications, up to transmissions on advanced data networks.

In Italy, SIGINT activities are regulated by a well-defined regulatory framework, which ensures compliance with the laws and citizens' rights. In particular, art.8, co. 2-bis of Legislative Decree no. 7 of 18 February 2015⁵, provides that it is “entrusted to AISE the task of carrying out information activities, also through electronic research facilities, exclusively abroad, to protect the political, military, economic, scientific and industrial interests of the Italian Republic. The President of the Council of Ministers informs the Parliamentary Committee for the Security of the Republic on a monthly basis about electronic research activities”. Therefore, the collaboration between theintelligence and the Armed Forces is essential to guarantee the effectiveness of SIGINT operations and to strengthen the security of the country.

As mentioned, this branch ofintelligence it is not limited only to the interception of communications between individuals or organizations, but also includes the analysis of electronic signals of various kinds. For example, it may involve the study of signals radar emitted by air defense systems, the surveillance of electromagnetic emissions from electronic devices, and even the collection of data from spy satellites. These capabilities allow you to gain a very detailed picture of the activities and capabilities of potential adversaries, helping to enable stakeholder to make more correct strategic and operational decisions.

The evolution of SIGINT, like all areas closely connected to technology, continues at a rapid pace, especially in recent years marked by some epochal turning points. Above all the advent of Artificial Intelligence (AI) which, together with machine learning algorithm , offers new possibilities for automated analysis of signals, allowing identification pattern and threats more quickly and efficiently.

In fact, where it is not possible to achieve results through cryptanalysis techniques, AI allows the metadata of communications to be correlated and areas of interest to be identified. Likewise, the integration of technologies cyber with traditional SIGINT it is opening new frontiers in the collection and analysis of information.

History, current events and future projections demonstrate the importance of this discipline in protecting national interests, preventing security threats and obtaining military advantages in operations and this, we can bet, will be even more true in imminent future.