If the Turks rushed to help al-Sarraj, what would we do?

(To Tiziano Ciocchetti)
21/12/19

The appeals of the recognized (but little sovereign) government of al-Sarraj's national unity against Ankara are multiplying.

The new offensive, launched by General Haftar with the support of about 200 Russian contractors, has not yet conquered Tripoli, but now it seems only a matter of time.

Erdogan will have to decide, in the next few days, whether to continue his policy aimed at imposing Turkey as a regional power and a main actor in the Mediterranean basin (excluding the USA of course).

Hearing the statements on Turkish television of the Sultan of Ankara there would be little doubt about his intentions: We will protect the rights of Libya and Turkey in the eastern Mediterranean.

Indeed, according to well-informed sources, Turkish special forces are already operating in Tripoli, in support of the Misrata militias (of Turkish ethnicity) who, if Haftar were to win, would see their autonomous ambitions destroyed.

Eventually, there would be no clash with the Russians, as Ankara has excellent relations with the Kremlin, as evidenced by the withdrawal from the American program F-35 and the acquisition of the Russian surface-air systems S-400.

The problem would arise with Egypt, an ally of Haftar and strongly interested in countering Erdogan's economic aims. Because the point is precisely this: to install a Turkish naval base in Tripolitania in order to better control the EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone), recently established between Libya and Turkey (which de facto ignore the territorial waters of Greece).

In all this, what role is Italy playing?

Last Tuesday our foreign minister met al-Sarraj in Tripoli and subsequently also had talks with General Haftar. However, our line always remains the same: diplomatic solution between the conflicting parties and full trust in international bodies. In addition the minister announced the institution of a special correspondent for Libya who will respond directly to the Farnesina, in order to have a continuous, intense high-level political relationship with all Libyan parties.

So, the premier recognized by the international bodies al-Sarraj is asking for troops and means (which Turkey is willing to provide), and we send him a broker.

Italian politicians (of all sides) are too busy watching the polls of the next regional elections - obviously we could not expect the movement of the sardine pronounce on foreign policy issues, even if they are fundamental for the country - to deal with geopolitics (as long as they know what this term means).

If the Turkish soldiers intervene in Libya, we Italians could only hope for Egyptian help, in order to preserve our energy interests.

In fact, if the Turks settle permanently in Tripolitania, they will control Libya's energy resources by ousting any other actor, public or private.

Photo: Türk Silahlı Kuvvetleri / web