As the Russian military launched global exercises last week, widely seen as a show of force aimed at NATO countries, Vladimir Putin made it clear, as if it were still needed, which country he sees alongside Moscow: China.
In a speech, the president also said that 15 “friendly” nations would “observe” what Moscow said was “the largest exercise of its kind in the last 30 years” (90.000 troops and more than 500 ships and aircraft committed to the People's Republic of China to participate alongside the Russian Federation).
“We are paying special attention to strengthening cooperation with our friendly countries and this is especially important today, in the context of growing geopolitical tension around the world”, the Russian leader said.
Nicknamed “Ocean-2024”, with seven days of exercises that are the latest in a series of joint military exercises and patrols between Russia and the People's Republic of China that come on the heels of mutual promises by the leaders of Moscow and Beijing to strengthen their military cooperation, just as the Kremlin continues its aggression against Ukraine.
According to Russian sources, the PRC has sent several warships and 15 aircraft to the waters off the coast of Russia’s Far East for “Ocean-2024.” In addition, the two countries’ forces promoted in-depth strategic coordination during joint naval exercises in waters near Japan this month and held their fifth joint maritime patrol activity in the North Pacific.
When mentioning the North Pacific, one must immediately remember that in that area there is Alaska and its territorial waters (near which US and Canadian forces intercepted Russian and Chinese bombers together for the first time) which, like the South China Sea, are vital waterways (the China Sea is claimed almost entirely by Beijing) in which geopolitical tensions are rapidly increasing.
This coordination has been watched with growing concern by Washington, which for months has accused the People's Republic of China of bolstering Russia's defense sector with dual-use exports such as machine tools and microelectronics. It is a charge Beijing rejects as it claims, in denial, neutrality in the conflict. This comes as the conflict in Ukraine continues and threats mount, with Putin warning NATO leaders that lifting restrictions on Kiev's use of long-range Western missiles to strike deep into Russia will be considered an act of war by the alliance.
The latest military exercises between Russia and the People's Republic of China are part of a decade-long pattern of increasing military coordination between the two countries. But they come at a time of rising global tensions (including Russia's aggression in Ukraine, the People's Republic of China in the South China Sea, and Beijing's claims to the democratically self-governed island of the Republic of China-Taiwan) that also underscore how Moscow and Beijing increasingly see each other as the center of the global power axis. So much so that the joint exercises also raise questions about whether the two nuclear-armed powers, which are not officially allies, could act together in any potential future conflict, even if the relationship between these two neighboring giants has historically been difficult.
Moscow and Beijing were once enemies who fought each other in the 1969 border conflict between the Soviet Union and Communist China. Nonetheless, recent decades have seen a robust arms trade between the two (especially as Xi and Putin have strengthened ties more broadly) and a considerable increase in military coordination.
Between 2014 and 2023, the two militaries have held up to ten joint military exercises and joint naval patrols including multilateral exercises with other countries. At least half a dozen such activities have already been held in the first half of this year, with the exercises in August and September bringing the total to around 10.
These exercises and patrols also appeared to observers to be increasingly complex, involving, for example, both the navy and the air force, and taking place in areas increasingly distant from the two countries.
For the first time last July, both a Chinese and a Russian aircraft intercepted near Alaska reportedly took off from the same Russian air base. It was the first joint air patrol of the two partners, in the North Pacific, which are not yet fully interoperable like NATO members, but are improving and consolidating this partnership. Since their first participation in joint military exercises in 2003, Russia and the People's Republic of China have certainly improved their ability to work together as a single entity.
Putin and Xi are driven by a shared vision that the West is trying to suppress their core interests. For Putin, these concerns include preventing NATO expansion, while Xi is aiming to attack and occupy Taiwan and dominate the South China Sea.
Putin made this clear by accusing the United States and NATO of “use the alleged Russian threat and the policy of containment of the People's Republic of China as a pretext to strengthen their military presence along Russia's western borders, as well as in the Arctic and the Asia-Pacific”.
The Russian leader also anticipated that in his opinion/knowledge the United States intends to position medium- and short-range missiles in “forward deployment areas,” including the Asia-Pacific region.
Both Russia and the People's Republic of China want to demonstrate to the United States and its allies that their two militaries are becoming increasingly integrated and any challenge to either risks a combined response.
The exercises also provide an opportunity to learn from each other as Russia, with its vast battlefield experience, and the People's Republic of China, which has become increasingly advanced in electronic military technologies, have something to learn from each other.
Among NATO members, the focus on strengthening ties is raising concerns about the risk of a simultaneous US-NATO military conflict with the People's Republic of China and Russia, or even a conflict that could include other partners, such as Iran, with whom the two countries conducted naval exercises earlier this year. Concerns about Moscow's potential mutual support for Beijing in any future war in the Asia-Pacific should not be overlooked.
In these seas, Beijing and Washington face a number of potential flashpoints, including the People's Republic of China's much-cited designs on the ROC-Taiwan and its growing aggression in the South China Sea against the Philippines (a US ally).
Both Russia and the People's Republic of China are closely watching the United States' strengthening of long-standing ties with regional allies in the Pacific, but experts say that despite increasing coordination in their joint exercises, it remains unlikely that anything other than a strong signal to the other side will be forthcoming, at least for now.
Photo: Russian Federation MoD
