NDPP, a more or less unknown acronym for an even more unknown process.
NDPP means NATO Defense Planning Process and it is one of the most important processes among those used in the Atlantic Alliance. It aims to offer a framework in which national and NATO military capacitive planning activities can be harmonized to ensure that the Alliance as a whole has the necessary strengths and capabilities required to meet future challenges.
One might therefore think, at first glance, that the NDPP is something that concerns NATO, but it is not quite so.
The process of allocating resources within the defense budget is considered by scholars of strategic issues to be "Grand Strategy". In an interesting article by my friend Jordan Becker and Robert Bell1, the authors support the thesis that in a period such as what we live in these years, defined as ambiguous (fog of peace), considerations of an operational military nature, regarding the allocation of resources, are subordinated to national and regional policies and only ultimately to those of the Alliance.
One wonders, therefore, if it is true that the NDPP is the process used in the Atlantic Alliance to plan the optimal resources and capabilities necessary to face emerging challenges but States are primarily interested in meeting their internal needs and only in continued to satisfy the requests of the Alliance, what is the real effectiveness of the process put in place.
The question is not trivial and all American scholars ask it Grand Strategy.
We recall that the commitments within the Alliance are made by the heads of state or government of the Allied countries and not by the last comer. In 2014, for example, the Alliance countries pledged to increase defense spending to at least 2% of GDP by 2024. If it is true that an increase in national defense spending does not necessarily lead to a capacity growth in line with what was decided in the NDPP sphere, it is however true that the continuous decrease of the national budget in recent years seriously compromises the possibility of achieving the objectives set.
Without any presumption of exhaustiveness, let's try to understand something more about NATO Defense Planning Process.
The NDPP is a five-step process covering a four-year time period.
Il first step consists in establishing the Political Guidance of the process. It is expressed in a document, reviewed every four years by the Defense Policy and Planning Committee Reinforced - DPPC (R) - which establishes general goals and objectives that must be achieved by the Alliance in the following four years. It is drawn up from higher-level policy documents (Strategic Concept) and is detailed enough for planners to clearly determine the capabilities needed. It must report the "Level of Ambition" of the Alliance, the skills required in terms of quality and an indication of the times and priorities for implementation.
Il second step consists in determining the capacitive requirements (Determine requirements) necessary to fulfill the aims and objectives indicated in the policy guide. To identify the list of requirements (Minimum Capability Requirements) are the two Strategic Commands: Allied Command Operations (ACO) and Allied Command Transformation (ACT).
Il third step consists in dividing the capacitive requirements identified among the allies (Apportion requirements and set targets), through individual assignment or by groups of States. The Strategic Commands, under the leadership of ACT, and aided by NATO International Staff prepare a package of capabilities to be assigned for development to each ally, with associated priorities and timing. To do this, the principle of "fair burden sharing" is applied2. Once the Minister of Defense of the assigning country agrees to develop the capacitive package assigned to him under the Alliance, it is included in the national planning process.
Il fourth step consists in facilitating the implementation of the overall Facilitate implementation plan and of the nations. This step is transversal to all the others and not sequential like the others.
Il fifth step consists of reviewing the process (Review results), starting with examining the level of achievement of the initial political objectives, the level of NATO ambition and military capabilities in order to offer useful feedback for the next NDPP cycle. The auditor is the Defense Planning Capability Review led by NATO International Staff.
It is clear that the NATO Defense Planning Process is complex and requires constant commitment from all allied nations, NATO relies on capabilities and forces made available from time to time by allied nations and not as someone thinks about NATO forces ( often read as USA!).
If it is true, as discussed by his friend Jordan Becker, that states are more likely to meet national, then regional and only after the Alliance needs, then the risk is that the Alliance will sooner or later find itself unable to deal with the challenges for which it was created and still exists.
Then we must pay attention to what is said when we speak.
The critical remarks of the American President Trump who wanders the Allies for not keeping the 2% commitment, like the irritated responses of the European partners towards an Alliance unable to adapt to the new needs are useless, or are probably counterproductive, the better then let diplomacy speak, the more he uses to seek compromise!
In fact, an Alliance reflects the power relationships existing between elements of a given international environment, it is certainly not a magical tool for solving problems that have always existed.
1 Jordan Becker & Robert Bell (2020): Defense planning in the fog of peace: the transatlantic currency conversion conundrum, European Security, DOI: 10.1080 / 096628 39.2020.1716337 at the link https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09662839.2020.1716337
2 By "burden sharing" we mean the distribution of costs and risks among the members of a group in the process of achieving a goal. Foster & Cimbala, The US, NATO and military burden sharing, 2005.
To learn more:
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49202.htm
https://foreignpolicy.com/2009/04/08/what-is-grand-strategy-and-why-do-w...
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/events_112136.htm
Photo: NATO
