In the early hours of August 6, Ukrainian army units crossed the border into Russia's Kursk Oblast, in a surprise move that ended a two-and-a-half-year taboo on military operations on Russian soil. The objectives of this ambitious Kursk incursion are still shrouded in mystery and subject to much debate, but it is already clear that Ukraine's decision to invade Russia has succeeded in demonstrating the irrelevance of Vladimir Putin's red lines.
Ukraine's summer offensive is a watershed moment in the current war and a historical milestone in its own right. For the first time since World War II, Russia has been invaded by a foreign army. Initial reports indicate that this ambitious operation has been prepared in secret for months. Ukraine managed to catch the Russians completely by surprise, with Ukrainian forces advancing tens of kilometers into Kursk Oblast during the first days of the campaign.
Ukraine's political and military leaders have so far remained remarkably tight-lipped about the invasion, saying very little publicly and providing few details. However, a number of likely targets can be identified.
Ukraine's most obvious intention is probably to ease military pressure in the south and east of the country, where Russia has advanced slowly but steadily in recent months. By attacking across the poorly defended border and seizing Russian territory, Ukrainian commanders believe they can force the Kremlin to withdraw troops from the front lines of the war in Ukraine to redistribute them for the defense of Russia itself.
The offensive also creates opportunities for Ukraine to regain the military initiative after a year of costly and demoralizing defensive operations. It has long been evident that Ukraine cannot realistically hope to win a war of attrition against the much larger and richer Russian Federation. Kyiv's best chance for military success lies in returning to a war of mobility and maneuver that allows Ukrainian commanders to leverage their relative agility while taking advantage of the Russian military's much more cumbersome decision-making processes. This is exactly what the invasion of Kursk Oblast achieved.
In psychological terms, bringing the war back to Russia allowed Ukraine to launch a severe blow to enemy morale. The Ukrainian army's advances in Kursk Oblast are spreading panic throughout the surrounding region and undermining Putin's efforts to prevent the invasion of Ukraine from disrupting the daily lives of ordinary Russians. Domestically, Ukraine's surprise summer offensive provided Ukrainian society with a desperately needed morale boost, reviving hopes that the war-weary nation can still achieve significant military success.
The Kursk offensive may ultimately be part of Ukraine's preparations for a future peace process, with Kyiv seeking to occupy as much Russian territory as possible to use as a bargaining chip in any negotiations with the Kremlin. Indeed, during the first days of the invasion, there was widespread speculation that Ukraine's primary target might be the Kursk nuclear power plant, with the idea of exchanging it for the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine southern. A possible exchange of territories on a much larger scale could be part of Kyiv's calculations.
The advance of the Ukrainian army into Russia has profound implications for the perception of the war. It directly challenges the widespread belief that Russia's invasion has reached a stalemate and can no longer be decided on the battlefield. Crucially, it also exposes the hollowness of Vladimir Putin's red lines and the folly of the West's emphasis on escalation management.
Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, the international response has been hampered by fear of escalation. Western leaders allowed themselves to be intimidated by Putin, who he used nuclear threats thinly veiled and frequent talk of Russian red lines to limit the flow of military aid and convince Ukraine's partners to impose absurd restrictions on the use of Western weapons inside Russia. As a result, Ukraine was effectively forced to defend itself with one hand tied behind its back.
The Ukrainian offensive is now raising serious doubts about the credibility of Russia's saber-rattling and the rationality behind the West's abundance of caution. After all, the current invasion of Russia by the Ukrainian army is certainly the reddest of all red lines. If Russia were truly serious about a possible nuclear escalation, now would be the time to follow through on its many threats. Indeed, Putin has responded by trying to downplay the invasion, pretending that everything is still going according to plan. In his first public statement after the invasion of Ukraine began, Putin euphemistically referred to it as a "large-scale provocation", an expression that seemed coined to mask the gravity of the situation. The Kremlin then declared it "state of emergency" in Kursk Oblast, which was later promoted to "anti-terrorism operation". The difference between this sober language of law and order and the usual catch phrases trumpeting the existential war with NATO could hardly have been starker.
Russian propagandists have taken a similarly discreet approach. There were no appeals to the Russian people or attempts to mobilize the country against the invader. In contrast, Kremlin media were reportedly instructed to avoid "stirring up the situation", while Russian officials were told to refrain from commenting on developments in the Kursk region altogether. These are definitely not the actions of a self-confident military superpower on the eve of a serious escalation.
