If the Turkish militias, which support al-Sarraj, attack Sirte, the Egyptian armed forces will enter Cyrenaica to support Haftar.
So the escalation that everyone fears could occur within a short time, depends on Ankara's plans: settle for Tripolitania or try to reunite Libya, obviously under the Turkish umbrella.
President al-Sisi said that Egypt will not remain helpless in the face of threats to its strategic security and its western border, especially as military operations near Sirte are intensifying. If we want we can quickly change the situation on the ground. The matter will first be submitted to Parliament (totally controlled by al-Sisi).
However, despite the warlike claims, we would hardly believe that al-Sisi does not fear a military apparatus like the Turkish one, supported by drones and "Syrian" militiamen hardened by years of bloody civil war.
The Egyptian armed forces, in recent years, have suffered many reverses in Sinai fighting against the militants of the Islamic State. In the event of an intervention in Libya, as stated by al-Sisi, other efforts will be needed.
We believe, however, that in the event of an Egyptian intervention, ground troops will hardly be sent, more likely the massive use of aviation, perhaps by inserting detachments of special forces for the final guide of precision ammunition.
So it would be an intervention aimed more at discouraging Ankara's expansionist ambitions to the east, rather than a permanent occupation of Libyan territory.
Ankara does not remain silent in the face of Egyptian threats, in fact the Turkish foreign minister has ruled that Egyptian intervention, in any form in Libya, will have even worse consequences than Nasser's adventure in Yemen.
On balance, the Italian government is selling two brand new frigates (in addition to helicopters and perhaps hunting Typhoon) to a country that is preparing to attack an array (that of the internationally recognized premier al-Sarraj) which, at least on paper, it should support.
Photo: SIS
