The Vienna Agreement, signed on 14 July 2015 by the 5 + 1 group (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany), was intended to limit Iran's nuclear capabilities, in exchange for easing sanctions, thus preventing them from developing nuclear weapons. However, the Israelis have always considered this agreement insufficient, worried that a theocratic regime, strongly hostile to the Jewish state, would still find a way to acquire a nuclear arsenal.
In May 2018, the Trump administration pulled the United States out of the deal and reinstated sanctions against Tehran. One reason for this decision is that, according to the State Department, Iran was funding jihadist groups in the Middle East. Furthermore, Washington strongly fears the proliferation of Tehran in the field of ballistic missiles (which the 2015 Agreement prohibited), a fear shared by other countries such as France and Great Britain.
Once sanctions were restored, the Iranians began to disengage from the obligations of the Vienna Agreement. Meanwhile, the International Atomic Energy Agency has asked for clarification on some nuclear sites that Tehran has not declared but which the Israelis claim exist.
With the establishment of the new Biden Administration, Tehran announced its intention to produce, in the underground site of Fordo, uranium enriched at 20%, or a percentage five times higher than that authorized by the Agreement (which provided for a maximum quota of , 3,5%, sufficient for use in the civil field).
This announcement obviously constitutes a serious violation of the Vienna Agreement, which France, Germany, the United Kingdom and Russia wish to preserve. To cause a supercritical chain reaction, for a very short time, to cause an explosion, uranium must contain a minimum of about 20% isotopes 235U.
However, it is easier to enrich uranium from 20 to 90% (i.e. the level required for an operational nuclear weapon) than from 3 to 20%. Hence the remarks recently made by the French foreign minister Jean-Yves Le Drian.
“Iran - I say it clearly - is in the process of acquiring nuclear capability. […] There will also be presidential elections in Iran in mid-June. It is therefore urgent to tell the Iranians that this is very serious and to take steps to ensure that Iran and the United States return to the Vienna Agreement ", said the head of the Paris diplomacy.
He also added that “In exiting this agreement, the Trump Administration has chosen the strategy known as maximum pressure against Iran. The result is that this strategy has only increased the risk of an escalation in the region. We must therefore stop this mechanism ".
In this context, what will be the priorities of American diplomacy under the presidency of Joe Biden? Considering his predecessor's policy towards Iran as a failure, the new president said he wanted to bring the United States back into the deal but on the condition that Tehran returns strictly to its commitments.
For his part, Iranian President Rouhani (photo) hopes that Washington will take a first conciliatory step and then respect the terms of the Vienna Agreement.
On the other hand, the State of Israel believes that returning to the Agreement would be a "bad thing". This was stated by General Aviv Kochavi (opening photo), chief of staff of the IDF, during one of his rare public interventions last January 26.
"Any agreement that resumes the terms of 2015 is a bad thing, both strategically and operationally"General Kochavi said during a congress organized by the Defense Research Institute of Tel Aviv University.
"The pressure on Iran must continue, Iran cannot develop the capabilities to produce own a nuclear bomb", continued the Israeli chief of staff. Adding that it would be "unacceptable and would lead to nuclear proliferation throughout the region", noting that, "as regards the northern front (Lebanon and Syria), there is no intention on the Iranian side to withdraw".
Precisely in order not to be unprepared, according to General Kochavi, the State of Israel is drawing up new operational plans against Iran and its nuclear activities. “We are working on these plans and will develop them later this year. Then it will be up to the political decision makers to put them into practice or not, however it is essential that they are ready ”.
These operational plans will likely involve a combination of air strikes with the use of F-35I and F-15I and attacks brought from the Persian Gulf with class submarines. Dolphin equipped with cruise missiles Popeye.
For Tehran, Israel is waging only a "psychological war".
"They are waging psychological warfare, they have virtually no plans, no capabilities.", the Iranian Mahmoud Vaezi, chief of staff of President Rouhani, sentenced on January 27.
Also according to Vaezi, Iran does not intend to start a war but will defend itself from any attack by the Zionists or other countries.
Photo: IDF / IRNA
