The Israeli secret services fear that, with the new Biden administration, the Americans will lose interest in Iraq, with the consequence of increasingly marked interference from Tehran.
This concern would be at the root of the IAF's recent attacks on Iranian targets in eastern Syria. Last Tuesday was the fourth Israeli raid in the past two weeks.
Although political leaders try to silence them, IDF sources say that the attacks took place on the positions of Iranians on the Syrian-Iraqi border.
The evaluations of the Jerusalem services in 2019 indicated that the Iranian forces, present in Syria, would have great difficulty in settling west of Damascus, given the massive bombing by fighter-bombers with the Star of David. So Tehran, in the last year, has preferred to move its troops to the border with Iraq, an area totally under Tehran's control, where it has built numerous infrastructures. Also in this area, the Iranians have installed militiamen belonging to various groups, including Hezbollah.
Tuesday's raid hit precisely those infrastructures and jihadist groups that the Iranians believed to be safe.
Still according to Israeli secret services, Tehran is strengthening the Syrian-Iraqi border by installing cruise missiles, such as the Hoveyzeh with a maximum range of 1.200 km, and facilities to allow drones to attack Israeli territory.
The Jerusalem government fears that the Biden administration will withdraw completely from Iraq, turning it into a vassal state of Iran. There is a real possibility that the United States re-enters the nuclear deal with Tehran, resulting in a significant easing of sanctions against Iran. Israeli analysts fear that such combination of events would lead the Revolutionary Guards (the Pasdaran) to escalate attacks on the Jewish state.
Furthermore, the resurrection of the nuclear deal would be interpreted by Tehran as a green light to carry out conventional actions, that is, they would implement actions aimed at increasing tension in the region, especially using the Hezbollah militias: Israel will respond firmly to any provocation.
The message they want to send to the United States is that Israel has a vested interest in showing that it will not accept any distinction between the nuclear program and the other initiatives that the Iranians will take in Syria: however, for any Israeli government, the Tehran regime poses a threat to the survival of the Jewish people.
If the actions of Hezbollah were to increase in intensity, the IDF would extend their operational range, placing themselves a step below the level of war.
Two weeks ago, IDF Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi (photo) praised several units operating (including clandestine operations) in theaters far from the mother homeland, including a flotilla of submarines pocket-sized engaged in the Persian Gulf. Navy raiders (Shayetet 13) have been cited for carrying out a series of unconventional missions in non-permissive environments.
The other nations of the Middle East know very well that the State of Israel is the only one able to oppose Iran. The normalization of diplomatic relations with the states of the Persian Gulf has allowed Jerusalem to be able to monitor the initiatives of the Islamic Republic more closely.
Photo: IDF
