Yemen: Saudi Arabia one step away from the military catastrophe

(To Giampiero Venturi)
29/03/17

The latest news is about three missiles Qahir M2 (range 400 km, derived from the Russian SAM 2) launched by the rebels Houthi against the King Kalhid airbase, located on the outskirts of the city of Khamis Mushait, in the Saudi province of Asir about 150 km from the border with Yemen. 

The use of the ballistic weapon by the militiamen represents a real hell for the Saudis from which it seems increasingly difficult to escape. The phenomenon confirms a worrying fact for Riyadh: the war, already mired on Yemeni soil for two years, has now moved permanently to Saudi territory as well.

The guerrillas Houthi they occupy the entire mountain range of the western side of the province of Najran, making it impossible for the forces of Riyadh to be controlled by a large area a third of Italy (even if sparsely populated).

Even the total air superiority of the Saudi-led coalition has so far failed to significantly affect the outcome of the war. Massive bombing and continuous raids carried out with F-16 and helicopters Apache, continue to hit infrastructure and civilian targets, but fail to flush out militiamen loyal to former President Saleh, particularly skilled in the mountainous areas between the northwest of Yemen and southern Arabia.

The current strategy of the Riad provides for the recruitment of thousands of very young people coming from the southern coast of Yemen, in the area controlled by the Sunnis between Aden and Shuqrah, badly hit by the economic catastrophe following the war. Desperation and destitution favor the influx of new recruits entering the National Army loyal to President Hadi in exchange for food and primary support.

The "teenagers" of the Arab Coalition are joined by jihadist militia groups recruited by Riad with the call to the war against the "Shiite danger". The fear of an increase in Iranian influence in the Arabian peninsula seems the only glue still able to hold together an increasingly demotivated Sunni front.

The picture becomes even more nebulous due to the presence in the Saudi front of unity of the Yemeni Congregation for the Reformation (to Islah) linked to Muslim Brotherhood and loyal to the controversial general Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar. The Sunni Wahhabi government of Riyadh has a difficult relationship with the Muslim brotherhood, so much so that it was included in the list of international terrorist groups in the 2013. However, the relationship has changed due to common interests in Yemen. General Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar is a former man trusted by Shia President Saleh with whom he shared the repression of the Houthi in the early 2000 years. After the outbreak of the civil war the alliances were overturned. The militia Houthi, Shia zayditi, support Saleh and General Al Ahmar has passed on to the Sunni front of President Hadi. The support of the Muslim Brotherhood however, it contributes to the removal of Egypt from Saudi Arabia which is increasingly isolated in the Yemeni quagmire (read article).

From a military point of view, Riad is trying to open more fronts at the same time so as to ease the pressure on its territory. In particular, the Saudi army and its allies are concentrating on the coastal area of ​​the west, trying to consolidate the positions conquered in the city of Mocha and trying to put the siege to the Al Hudaydah region completely in the hands of the pro Saleh militia .

The losses to the Saudi-led coalition are huge, both in terms of materials and military personnel. The Border Guard Corps and the National Guard (which numbers about 100.000 troops and at least 5 large mechanized units) do not have control of the border posts between the Red Sea and the city of Najran, for a stretch of more than 400 km. For the rest of the demarcation line between the two countries, the hit and run attacks by the militiamen Houthi make the situation extremely difficult for the military and paramilitaries of Riyadh.

The situation from a geopolitical point of view remains very complex. The right reduction of the Houthis seems a long way off, especially as the military capabilities of the Shiites (aided by Hezbollah and Iran) continue to improve. In the battle cry of the Houthi there is a call to the curse of Israel and America. This makes any form of compromise with the rebels extremely difficult for the coalition headed by Arabia, which receives political and military support from the West.

Read also:

L'Afghanistan.  of Saudi Arabia

Yemen: the war becomes global, while Egypt looks at Moscow

The Saudi forces are still defeated

Saudi coalition allied with al Qaeda 

Yemen: The US gets into war. Attack on Houthi rebels

Houthi missile on Jeddah

Rebel missile hits the Saudi capital

(photo: yemeniTV - web)