Yemen still burns under the ashes. The "ceasefire" languishes despite the peace negotiations in Geneva.
It burns in silence, at the margins of the usual powder magazines.
Let's take a look.
Almost all the countries belonging to the Arab League are Sunni-led. The exceptions are Syria, still governed by the Shiite variant of Assad's Alawites, Lebanon, suspended between Christians and the Shiite Hezbollah party and Oman with an Ibadi majority, a third way of Islam that makes little news. Iraq makes its own history with its Shiite prime minister by constitution.
This reflects the slices of Islam even outside the Arab world.
We remember that:
- not all Arabs are Muslims (there are 9 million Christian Egyptians for example…);
- not all Muslims are Arabs, indeed. Indonesia alone has as many Muslims as the whole Arab world put together.
In any case, the Sunnis are the majority. Reference for all Shiites in the world is Iran which in the history books is called Persia. Since it became an Islamic Republic in the late 70s, all funding and political support for Shiites has flown through Tehran. Since then, the US and Iran have become cat and dog.
Let's frame the thing in the Yemeni cauldron.
In Yemen the factions of the northern Shiite (zayidite to be exact), from the 2014 control the capital San'a after deposing President Hadi (still recognized by the international community). The whole Sunni world, backed by the EU and the United States, reacted in defense of the president. The thing in itself could be of marginal interest, except that Yemen hides a crawl space that involves the entire Middle East, and therefore the whole world.
For the first time since the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in the 90s, the Arab world met in Sharm El Sheikh and decided to go to war. The Saudi, Moroccan and Egyptian armed forces have been directly involved on the ground for more than a year. Aircraft from Jordan, Qatar and all countries of the Persian Gulf except Oman participate in the raids on Shiites. Sudan, an Arab country at the top of the American list of rogue states, has even joined the appeal.
But if the Sunnis move, the Shiite Persians are not watching. Iran intervenes threatening bigger problems. In this regard, we recall that:
- the Iranians are historically rivals of the Arabs
- the monarchies of the Persian Gulf have the whole of Iran, a regional, military and demographic power. Above all, a great foment of Shiite minorities, including those of Bahrain, Saudi Arabia itself and obviously Yemen.
The thing is at least curious. The US that has air and naval bases in Aden, support the Sunnis, against the Shiite rebellion. On the same front, however, there are also Al Qaeda (or what's left of it), ISIS and all the Islamic fighters who consider the Shiites as heretics. The case of Jordan is emblematic: it bombards ISIS Sunnis in Syria at the same time, supporting Assad, in turn, a friend of the Shiites of Yemen. The same applies to Egypt: it affects the Sunni extremists in Libya, but indirectly supports them in Yemen.
There is an explanation in the intertwining: to stem Iran. It may appear a contradiction if we think that Iran has been very much pampered by the Americans in recent times to Israel's great anger. Just think of the green light for direct intervention by Tehran's armed forces in Syria and the Lausanne nuclear agreement. The frost between the US and the Jewish state is also due to this.
To consider the role of Russia that after the intervention in Syria points the finger at the Arab and pro-American raids in Yemen, but ends up tolerating them for two fundamental questions:
- have more "contractual weight" in the Syrian game;
- maintaining excellent relations with Egypt and historically with all Arabs (regardless of the privileged relationship with Damascus).
The evolution of things in Geneva is quite easy to predict. All mediation work will focus on the initiation and subsequent duration of the "ceasefire". Given the intensity and devastating effects on civilians of the Saudi bombing, the humanitarian emergency appears to be the most pressing issue. Regarding the political framework, a freeze is expected in the medium term. In fact, if it is difficult to imagine a further tightening of Iran, too interested in asserting its return to the international diplomatic ghota, it is even more difficult to imagine a definitive solution to the conflict. the roots go back before the reunification of 1990. Since then Yemen has been the backyard of the ideological clash between Saudi Arabia and Iran: it doesn't matter how long the "ceasefire" lasts; under the ashes it will still burn.
