The attention in the Middle East remains mainly focused on the military developments of the Syrian chessboard, in this predominant moment. However, future political developments throughout the region also seem to be linked to marginal fronts that continue to reap death and destruction in the general silence of the mass media.
Far from being pacified by the January negotiations, Yemen confirms the scene of bloody clashes between the Sunni "loyalist front" supported by Saudi Arabia and Arab Coalition and the Houthi Shiite rebels, themselves backed by Iran. Potential casus belli between Riyadh and Tehran the Yemeni front shows no signs of cooling down, on the contrary it seems to enter into an endless spiral.
Since February 17, the Saudi Royal Forces have unleashed a massive offensive to recover the strategic border town of Rabuah, occupied by Houthi rebels and Republican Guard units loyal to former (Shiite) Saleh president. For the third time in a month, however, the Saudis would suffer heavy losses and be repulsed. 24 soldiers would have fallen and 3 armored vehicles destroyed. Two weeks ago the soldiers of Riyadh killed in battle had been 28.
The Saudi effort is not giving the desired results but is part of an overall picture aimed at recovering all the territory left in the hands of the militias loyal to the president (or ex say if you prefer) Saleh. The reconquest of Aden last summer seemed to be the prelude to a rapid advance of pro-government Sunni-born and philosophical Sunni forces. In reality the political problem emerges greater in the light of the difficulties to penetrate militarily in the northern, mountainous, tribal and above all the zaydita, minority branch of Shiite Islam.
In recent weeks there has been a noticeable progression of Hadi's loyalist army towards San'a, but the situation remains extremely fluid. The whole region around the capital, still in the hands of the rebels, was affected by a concentration of forces preceded by thick bombing by the Saudi Royal Forces and the United Arab Emirates. The operations were so intense that the fall of the Venice of the Middle East, was given for imminent several times.
The decisive fact is that until the reunification of 1990 San'a had been the capital of the riotous and traditionalist North Yemen. Regardless of the developments in the urban fabric, it is very difficult to think of a rapid penetration even in the tribal provinces close to Saudi Arabia. Even if the front loyal to Saleh does not seem uniform from a political or sectarian point of view (there would be hundreds of defections among the militiamen) it seems that the direct intervention of the Saudi Sunnis (and the Emirates) has ended up acting as a glue prevent collapse. There are still two determining factors: the still very strong ties of many Houthi tribal rebel leaders with the military bureaucratic power of Saleh; Iran, which is interested in the Saudi defeat, continues to provide support to the "Shiite brothers". Houthi rebels and pro-Saleh Shiite militaries, while not loving each other, would thus end up being a very valid opposition to the Sunni cartel, especially on the military level.
The embarrassment of the international community that supports Hadi and considers Saleh a coup, meanwhile, continues. As well as the impasse of the operations of Riad that commits 100.000 men on the ground, it leads a coalition of other 9 countries, but it still cannot find the key to the problem.
(in the opening frame rebels houthi in action, in the subsequent the destruction of a Saudi M1 Abrams)
