Jordanian troops and US troops in southern Syria. Country Breakdown Proofs?

(To Giampiero Venturi)
24/04/17

As we write, Arab newspapers confirm the Israeli air attack conducted in the area of ​​Quneitra, an abandoned city in the Golan, within the territory controlled by Damascus. The attack would have happened on the 23 April against the formations of the Brigade for the Liberation of the Golan, the Iraqi Shiite militia fighting alongside Assad's troops in southern Syria. Tel Aviv does not confirm and there are no further details.

The attack takes place while the Damascus troops consolidate their presence in the Syrian Golan and prepare the offensive aimed at reducing the weight of the jihadist militiamen linked to Al Qaeda and the Islamic State in the southern front.

It is evident that in the southern regions of Syria some fundamental balances for the future of the country are rapidly changing.

Let's go to order.

The south was the initial outbreak of the anti-Assad uprising. In the spring of 2011, among the first cities where foreign mercenaries were provoking the crowd to trigger the Syrian army, there was Dar'a, a ten minute drive from Jordan and a few tens of kilometers from the Golan Heights.

A poor region near the borders with Israel, the Dar'a Governorate then became subordinate to other fronts apparently decisive for the fate of the conflict. Despite the lesser media exposure compared to Aleppo, Homs, Hama, Raqqa and Deir Ezzor, on the southern borders of Syria, however, a decisive and subtle game without interruption continued to play.

The first factor to consider is Israel, an actor apparently defunct, but in reality very present and operative.

We have already spoken on these pages in the 2016 about military contacts between the Jewish state and Al Qaeda in anti-Hezbollah (read article).

The factor to consider is the inclusion of Jordan in the framework of the Syrian war, as envisaged by the United States at the beginning of the so-called Arab Springs.

Il Telegraph in October 2012 had already leaked the news of the deployment of about 150 American special units in northern Jordan (35 km north of Amman, and about 70 by Syrian Dar'a) at the end of the periodic Operation Eager Lion. The same source (Richard Spencer, sent to the Middle East), citing the New York Times, argued that in London and Washington the idea of ​​creating a buffer in southern Syria, where to deploy defensive Jordanian troops had long been studying .

The project has never been abandoned for three reasons:

  • to guarantee the territorial integrity of the Hashemite kingdom, an ally of the faithful but weak West;
  • to guard against the possible collapse of state institutions in Syria and Iraq;
  • to ensure Jordan and Israel control of southern Syria, threatened by the strengthening of anti-Israel Shiite militias (especially Hezbollah).

The indirect attempts to achieve these goals have been continuous. Beyond direct Israeli intervention every time Shiite militias (or the Syrian army) were about to take over the rebels, there is the creation of the New Syrian Army and the direct intervention of the British special forces. 

Il New Syrian Army, born in the autumn of 2015, is a rebel group in Damascus created and armed by the CIA in order to control the south-eastern borders of Syria, in particular the area of ​​Al Tanf, where the border between Syria and Iraq passes, not far from the one with Jordan. After an easy start, the militia was practically eliminated by a suicide attack by ISIS (May 2016). The border post, located in a hostile and desert area, is strategically essential to fuel the rebellion at Assad through supplies arriving from Saudi Arabia via the Iraqi province of Al Anbar; it is fundamental both for the Islamic State and for the other rebel jihadist factions in Damascus. In August of the 2016 the Guardian , with the BBC they signaled the presence of British assault forces close to Al Tanf, in the Syrian territory (read article).

In April 2017 (a few days ago, ed.) The military difficulties of the Caliphate gave a further shake to the equilibrium on the field, bringing back the importance of the southern borders and the never abandoned Anglo-American (and Israeli) objective of occupying part of southern Syria.

The withdrawal of ISIS militiamen to the east in the Deir Ezzor Governorate is paving the way for some rebel factions, part of the Free Syrian Army. Independent Arab sources speak of the occupation of Al Bukamal, a town on the Euphrates on the border between Syria and Iraq. In essence, a replacement is underway for militiamen fighting the government in the southern regions: along the geographical line that goes from Dar'a to the Iraqi border, the jihadist rebels are taking over from ISIS. 

The rumors of concentration of US troops and materials in Jordan meanwhile continue.

While the 3a Jordanian Armored Division "King Abdullah" with its wagon units and artillery maneuvering north of Amman, the air base of Mafraq (30 km from the Syrian border and 50 from Dar'a) is a bustle of US vehicles. The same activity is reported in the only Jordanian port of Aqaba. Officially speaking less about 2000 US soldiers present in the Jordanian territory. Iranian intelligence sources, they come to count more than 10.000 that would be added to the 6000 units already present in Syria on the front of Raqqa.

The rumors that we are preparing to enter Syria on a permanent basis from the north of Jordan are multiplying. The collapse of ISIS in Iraq and Syria must not be followed by the strengthening of Assad and the Shiite groups that support him on both sides of the border: this seems to be the priority in the West.

As the US-led coalition presses on Raqqa, they want to prevent the Damascus army from gaining the upper hand in the Deir Ezzor area. A project for the future dismemberment of Syria with a Turkish buffer in the north and one buffer zone Jordanian-American (and Israeli) to the south, it seems served.

(photo: القوّات البرية الاردنيّة - IAF)