Attention has returned to the Strait between Formosa, as the Portuguese called it, and mainland China. She came back for a few days, beyond that guard limit that for "rebel China" is always high by 60 years.
The 20 May 2016 took office in Taipei the new president Tsai Ing-wen and left a trail of clamor on media around the world.
The great emphasis is essentially due to three reasons. A demagogic one: the Tsai Ing-wen is a woman, the first in Taiwan to become head of state and as with any female debut, the red carpet of clichés is unrolled quickly. In this regard it is good to prepare for the dramatization of the Clinton coronation at the White House in January 2017 ...
Secondly, the new president is an exponent of the Progressive Democratic Party who, with the 2016 presidential victory, puts aside for the first time in the island's history. Kuomintang. This second point is a turning point not so much in relations between Taipei and Beijing, as between Taiwan and the West, which has always had a controversial relationship with Taiwanese nationalism, particularly in the last 20 years, when the reform process on the island has begun to change the image of the country.
As long as Chiang Kai-shek's legacy served to stem the dangerous Chinese red, it was all broth. Since China became a privileged partner of Europe and the USA, the cards on the table have changed in the name of mutual interest and hypocrisy: let's close our eyes to human rights and Chinese political authoritarianism; Taipei's nationalistic and independentist upsurge began to be uncomfortable. To tell the truth they have long been uncomfortable in Taipei itself, where the inauguration ceremony of the new president no longer takes place under the image of Chiang Kai-shek but under the watchful eye of Sun Yat-sen, another father of the country but from the most soft and resellable positions in a drug-ridden "politically correct" West.
The third reason why Tsai president made headlines is his officially independent position. No coincidence that the continental newspapers have avoided the news of the settlement, bearing in mind the two historical positions of China: Taiwan is nothing more than a rebel province; anyone who manifests himself publicly as an independentist and does not recognize the formal legitimacy of reunification under the banner of Beijing, cannot be an interlocutor.
In his inauguration speech, Tsai did not mention the uniqueness of the Chinese state, creating much discontent in Beijing. The new president has even been part of the pool of political experts who worked on the idea of "a China-two State", a message for Beijing's declaration of independence. 
Behind the cover smoke, however, there is very little and the independence of Tsai represents a more than formal position. More like a literature teacher than a fierce champion of Taiwanese separatism, the new n.1 seems to follow in the footsteps of its "political father" Lee Teng-hui, former president of Taiwan, a supporter of a life of independence but well far from doing anything to declare it.
In other words, the stalemate wins in Taipei. Both the new president (the form of government approaches the Western-style presidential republic) and the People's Republic reaffirm their historic position, that is, bark a lot so that no one bites: Taiwan continues to flaunt its autonomy without proclaiming it; Beijing threatens invasions every six months and increases military exercises in the Strait, knowing however that there will never be a war.
To understand the situation, just take a look at Taipei's diplomatic relations, de facto in force with almost everyone, but officially only with the Vatican and a series of geopolitically insignificant states. Among the first to close the embassy in Taipei in the name of "do not offend Beijing" was Mandela's progressive South Africa ...
Nevertheless, Taiwan has returned to great relevance and continues to play a key strategic role in the Far East. If at three yellow wars of the USA (Japan, Korea and Vietnam), a fourth will follow with China in the 21st century, it is still too early to say. However, Taiwan remains one of the three points of temperature detection in relations between the USA and China, along with the Korean peninsula and the South China Sea. The island represents the midway point between the frictions around the Paracel Islands off the coast of Vietnam and the Pacific stronghold of the VIIa American fleet, officially a bank against Pyongyang, actually sentinel on Chinese expansionism.
The future of the relationship between Taipei and Beijing is more regulated by finance than by muscles. Chinese investment in Taiwan increased 38% between 2015 and 2016, and the January military exercises of the 101st Reconnaissance Battalion (frogmen known as sea dragons) on Kinmen Island in anti-Chinese function time they find.
It should not be forgotten that Taiwanese and mainland Chinese are both predominantly ethnic han, that is, the same people divided by a strait and politics (so far). Can we then say a people, a nation and a half? Probably yes.
Considering the economic crisis in Taiwan and the beginning of a decrease in growth for Beijing, it is all too evident that the escalation of frictions that have lasted for decades and the war that could ensue are scenarios that do not suit anyone and that in reality nobody wants.
The clash between China and the US will pass through the narrow, but in all probability will not touch any of the two sides of China.
(photo: 中華民國 國 軍)
