Massacre in Pakistan. Islamabad's ambivalence at a crossroads

(To Giampiero Venturi)
20/01/16

We have been following the developments in Pakistan for some time, an emblematic country and a test bed for many prototypes of Islamic fundamentalist terrorism (v.articolo).

This morning's attack on the Bacha Khan University campus in the Charsadda district only reiterates our line of analysis: the western part of the country bordering Afghanistan is controlled by the central government only in a delegated form.

The attack took place a few tens of kilometers from Peshawar, the capital of the North West Provinces (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa) and at the same time the informal capital of the Tribal Areas under direct federal administration. These territories, including the two pieces of Waziristan, are in fact administered by the Pashtun clans who do not recognize the border with Afghanistan and who administer the region on the substantial ISI delegation, the Pakistani services. Control of the region, a natural bunker for the Taliban leaders during NATO's military campaign, arrives seamlessly up to Jalalabad, in Afghanistan.

In Peshawar, a city with 3 million inhabitants and vital center of the region, in December of the 2014 there was the attack on the Military Public School that procured 145 deaths and a wave of indignation all over the world. Also in that case the claim was of the Tehreek-Taliban, the Pakistani Taliban, reunited in the 2015 with the secessionist wing Jamat Ul Ahrar. The school was attended by children of senior officers and caused a shock in the armed forces of Islamabad, accused for years of foraging terrorism rather than fighting it.

The attacks continued for all the 2015. In September, 17 died in an attack on the Badaber air base (Peshawar). In December the attack we have already documented in Mardan.

TTP sources (the Pakistani Taliban) reaffirm their will to take revenge for the repressive actions of the armed forces and the central state in general. The army, for its part, insists on the results achieved in the fight against terrorism, also focusing on the judiciary aspect. The captured terrorists are theoretically judged by military courts (the final ratification is put by the same commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces) which makes death sentences (hanging) extremely easy but with whose doubts there are strong doubts.

What's behind it?

The question is always the same: is Pakistan financing terrorism or fighting it?

The Public Information Office of the Pakistani Armed Forces (ISPR) is very active in disseminating news concerning the fight against fundamentalism. Spokesperson Asim Bajwa on Twitter was quick to declare the attack on the Charsadda campus to be concluded, underlining the prompt response of the security forces. The main interest of Pak Fauj (the Army), the most powerful and influential member of the Pakistani Armed Forces, is to show Islamabad's intense commitment to terrorism to the international community. The interest is imposed by US pressure no longer willing to tolerate the Pakistani ambivalence and the internal fringe of the generals, especially those of the Punjabi and Sindhi ethnic groups, who are not inclined to support the Pashtuns.

The dilemma is to understand how the infamous ISI Services weigh in the Pakistani military world. The backbone of Pakistani society and its political class develop around the Armed Forces: if the ISI that controls an important part of it continues to act in a nebulous way, the whole geopolitical orientation of the country suffers.

To understand the evolutions we will have to wait for spring and see the first moves of the ISIS cells already present in eastern Afghanistan. If there will be operational cooperation with the TTPs (and the Pashtun tribes in general), it means that the ISI and the pro-Taliban wing of the Pakistani high military command are still strong. In spite of what Islamabad says officially and its fight against terrorism.

(in the photos the chief of staff of the Pakistani army - ISPR)