Syria, Turkish army advances at high cost: 25 dead from the beginning of "Shield of the Euphrates"

(To Giampiero Venturi)
22/12/16

The news coming from the front update us on military developments, but they tell a lot of what is happening in these days in Syria also from a political point of view.

The Turkish army and the rebels backed by Ankara move to the ISIS Al-Bab stronghold after heavy clashes with the Caliphate militias. Al-Bab is considered to be the last stronghold of the Islamic State in northern Syria and is of strategic importance: far less than 50 km from Aleppo and about 180 from Raqqa lies in the heart of the controversial region between Kurds, Islamist and Militia rebels ISIS.

The approach to Al-Bab testifies to the depth reached by the Turkish forces, now entered for well 25 km in Syrian territory. The advance, however, coincides with the significant increase in losses: the Turkish army would have admitted the death of 25 soldiers from the beginning of the Operation Shield of the Euphrates, arriving at its fourth month. Also leaking material, especially in terms of wagons and armored vehicles.

The possible withdrawal from Al Bab, would be the beginning of the end of the Islamic State, chased by the Kurdish militias on the same sector along the route north of Raqqa, about 60 km away from the front line.

Despite the dynamism in the south, witnessed by Palmira's reconquest and attempts to expand westward to Homs, the Caliphate appears more and more to the ropes. The only source of survival fueling its military capabilities remains the flow of reinforcements coming from the Iraqi Governorate of Al Anbar, not controlled by Shiite militias, as is the case in the northernmost sector on the Mosul front. Weapons, materials and militia (including many former senior Iraqi officers) are still arriving with Saudi Arabia's logistic help, frightened by a possible Shiite supremacy in Iraq.

Shield of the Euphrates therefore it continues and officially remains a limited-time military operation designed to secure the Turkish border from terrorist incursions of the Islamic State. The heavy clashes of these days seem to confirm it, but the relevant data is there for all to see. The deep penetration of the Turks in Syria serves to balance and neutralize the political (and military) growth of the Kurds linked to a possible collapse of ISIS on the northeastern front.

Ankara, after having facilitated the evacuation of Aleppo rebels militants with the agreements reached with Russia, enjoys for the time being a free hand to continue its operations. Damascus, which has won the victory in Aleppo, tacitly consents, also because the strong pressure on Al-Bab allows to loosen that of ISIS on the Palmyra front, sooner or later destined to return under government control.

In this chess game the only thought of Ankara seems to be to consolidate its military presence in Syria, so as to guard against any power gaps left by the Syrian government once the war is over. Put under pressure, not least because of the recent attack on the Russian ambassador, the Turkish government is now credited with the international community by giving a demonstration of its commitment against ISIS, the global platform of fundamentalist terrorism.  

(photo: Türk Kara Kuvvetleri)